NEWS FLASH! Dan Haren traded to the Angels

[Captain Hook]

Where there is smoke there is fire....the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren to the LA Angels of Anaheim for Joe Saunders, two minor leaguers - Corbin and Rodriguez I think - and the proverbial PTBNL.

Good for the Angels but IMO A TERRIBLE trade for the Diamondback as I think they could have gotten a lot more back than what I see in the trade today.

Clearly Haren is a HUGE FAAB target in AL only leagues next week.
Not so much Saunders although in deeper leagues with a paucity of SP available he is playable - especially in road games in the division except Colorado.

[Todd Zola]

The PTBNL is reportedly NOT going to be Mike Trout.

[Captain Hook]

NO way in Hades that the Angels or I give up Mike Trout......a player like that would change my opinion of the DBacks side of the trade.......

ETA - DBacks president Derrick Hall just said that the fourth player from the Angels is a ....very highly regarded Angels prospect"

[Todd Zola]

Tyler Skaggs as the PTBNL is being bandied about.

[Andy]

Awful, awful trade. What the hell are 'zona doing...

[Bodhizefa]

Bill Simmons: Anaheim: "We want Danny Haren. Any interest in a pu pu platter deal that's an Eff You to your fans?" Arizona: "Sure! Done!"

Joe Sheehan: Kinda wonder how Justin Upton, locked in Phoenix below market through '15 in a deal he signed five months ago, feels about this. about 5 hours ago via web

Jeff Sullivan: The Angels pulled off a message board trade. That's exactly what this is. This is why people continue to post message board trades.

Jerry DiPoto: Joe Saunders is a pedigree Major League pitcher with, I think, a .630 winning percentage. He sends a message to our youngsters that we want to win.

More Jeff Sullivan: Dear Jerry Dipoto: I have never lost a game in the Major Leagues. And you wouldn't believe how available I am.

Dave Cameron: Just got home from the mountains. What the hell, Arizona?

[Bodhizefa]

So this is what it felt like for everybody else when the Mariners got Cliff Lee, huh?

Can't say I like being on this side of things

[da_big_kid_94]

On paper, this looks like a steal for the Angels .... but I can't help feeling we're about to see Scott Kazmir II. I know 2nd half stats are not the most reliable numbers ever produced ... but for a guy who has logged over 1200 innings over the last 6 years, look at Haren's. His three year averages (2007-2009):

ERA - Pre ASB - 2.34; Post ASB - 4.33
BA Against - Pre ASB - .202; Post ASB - .286

I wouldn't bet the FAAB farm on him this week - something healthy? Yes - but shoot the moon? No.

[Bodhizefa]

On paper, this looks like a steal for the Angels .... but I can't help feeling we're about to see Scott Kazmir II. I know 2nd half stats are not the most reliable numbers ever produced ... but for a guy who has logged over 1200 innings over the last 6 years, look at Haren's. His three year averages (2007-2009):

ERA - Pre ASB - 2.34; Post ASB - 4.33
BA Against - Pre ASB - .202; Post ASB - .286

I wouldn't bet the FAAB farm on him this week - something healthy? Yes - but shoot the moon? No.

Kazmir hasn't posted a FIP under 4 since 2007, big kid. Haren is no Kaz -- he's still one of the most sturdy and reliable pitchers in baseball, in my opinion.

Heck, isn't this why we have underlying statistics in the first place? So we can tell when someone's been lucky/unlucky and when someone has sucked? To me, it's a pretty basic assessment on Haren. He grades out very well in the skill categories, but some of the luck-based stats (BABIP and HR/9) are running against him.

Jerry DiPoto can join my leagues any time he wants

[Todd Zola]

The 1st half/2nd half has always been the enigma with Haren.

The problem is, while it is true his component skills do decline a bit in the second half, the decline is not nearly sufficient to account for the bigger disparity in "results".

His hit rate and more importantly home run rate rise in the second half. And I think most site followers know by now there is a certain element of ....wait for it....luck involved with BABIP (hit rate) and HR/FB (HR-rate).

I am not about to therefore contend the entirety of Haren's second half woes are all simply bad luck. I think there is a portion of it. I will fall somewhere in between those that strictly expect HR/FB and BABIP to regress to the norm and those that say he sucks in the second half. Actually, I am a lot closer to the numbers will regress side of things.

To me, Haren is an all-in. His K-rate and BB-rate are elite. Until I figure out how to see something in the underlying numbers that tell me otherwise, that will be my primary evaluation measure. ERA doesn't do it for me.

[da_big_kid_94]

Kazmir hasn't posted a FIP under 4 since 2007, big kid. Haren is no Kaz -- he's still one of the most sturdy and reliable pitchers in baseball, in my opinion.

Heck, isn't this why we have underlying statistics in the first place? So we can tell when someone's been lucky/unlucky and when someone has sucked? To me, it's a pretty basic assessment on Haren. He grades out very well in the skill categories, but some of the luck-based stats (BABIP and HR/9) are running against him.

Jerry DiPoto can join my leagues any time he wants

For all I know, he could have a BP of 170/92 since I have NO idea what a FIP is nor what it's significance may be. I still think Haren is very much like Kazmir - the packaging is better than the product inside. If the Angels did this for 2010, I think they are going to end up disappointed. If it's for 2011 and beyond? Then I think it's a good deal. I can see luck - but not four straight years of the same type of luck with strikingly similar patterns.

As for DiPoto? I think you have to stop looking at this like a baseball trade and look at it for what it truly is - a salary dump disguised as a trade.

[Todd Zola]

Here are Haren's peripherals the past 3 seasons. His K-rate actually improves post ASB, his walk rate declines, his HR rate increases and his BABIP goes through the roof. So again, his tiny decline in skills do not come close to accounting for the large discrepancy in results. I know we are beginning to sound trite by suggesting this, but Haren's second halves are more bad luck than bad pitching.

I'll come back to edit the chart with his ERA and WHIP included

Code: Select all

	         K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA  	WHIP  
2009 1H	8.93	1.11	0.83	0.233	2.01	0.81
2009 2H	8.52	1.99	1.36	0.315	4.62	1.26
						
2008 1H	8.02	1.58	0.72	0.256	2.72	0.96
2008 2H	9.37	1.79	0.90	0.375	4.18	1.37
						
2007 1H	7.03	2.23	0.77	0.234	2.30	1.00
2007 2H	8.78	2.22	1.25	0.357	4.15	1.50
						
07-09 1H	7.99	1.64	0.77	0.241	2.34	0.92
07-09 2H	8.87	2.00	1.18	0.349	4.33	1.37

[da_big_kid_94]

Here are Haren's peripherals the past 3 seasons. His K-rate actually improves post ASB, his walk rate declines, his HR rate increases and his BABIP goes through the roof. So again, his tiny decline in skills do not come close to accounting for the large discrepancy in results. I know we are beginning to sound trite by suggesting this, but Haren's second halves are more bad luck than bad pitching.

I'll come back to edit the chart with his ERA and WHIP included

Code: Select all

	         K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP
2009 1H	8.93	1.11	0.83	0.233
2009 2H	8.52	1.99	1.36	0.315
				
2008 1H	8.02	1.58	0.72	0.256
2008 2H	9.37	1.79	0.90	0.375
				
2007 1H	7.03	2.23	0.77	0.234
2007 2H	8.78	2.22	1.25	0.357
				
07-09 1H	7.99	1.64	0.77	0.241
07-09 2H	8.87	2.00	1.18	0.349

I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Alberto Callaspo and Mike Napoli in the field on a fairly regular basis.

EDIT: There might be something here than is more than coincidence - but it's going to take some time to run it down - if it can be done at all. To top line it - a brief look at Haren's numbers in the years outlined show inconsistent lineups - maybe it's not so much his bad luck as it is more limited defenses behind him. Let you know if I come up with something.

[Todd Zola]

I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Alberto Callaspo and Mike Napoli in the field on a fairly regular basis.

I am admittedly not an expert in statistics as a science so I know there are better ways to say this and this argument has holes, but the larger point still stands.

If 8 people flip a coin 3 times, one "should" get all heads and one "should" get all tails. If heads is good luck and tails is bad luck, all Haren has done is flip 3 tails.

If you extend it to 4 flips/years, one out of 16 players should have worse luck the second half for 4 straight seasons.

All I am saying is it that it very well can be a coincidence. If you graph the expected "luck" of the MLB population and use 750 players as the base, about 47 of them can be expected to have worse luck the second half FOR FOUR STRAIGHT SEASONS.

23 of them for FIVE STRAIGHT SEASONS

12 of them for SIX STRAIGHT SEASONS

[Todd Zola]

Something that should be pointed out is that this is not simply a case of normal luck one half and bad luck the second. Haren's BABIP was quite lucky in the first half.

I'm also working on a hypothesis that every starting pitcher is two pitchers -- stretch guy and wind up guy.

I need to check the numbers on Haren, but if he is significantly better from the wind up, that will help explain the extreme nature of his splits. That is, some small bad luck with hits could lead to more working from the stretch and if he is not as good a pitcher from the stretch, now we are talking some bad pitching and not just bad luck. Sort of a snowball effect.

[da_big_kid_94]

Something that should be pointed out is that this is not simply a case of normal luck one half and bad luck the second. Haren's BABIP was quite lucky in the first half.

I'm also working on a hypothesis that every starting pitcher is two pitchers -- stretch guy and wind up guy.

I need to check the numbers on Haren, but if he is significantly better from the wind up, that will help explain the extreme nature of his splits. That is, some small bad luck with hits could lead to more working from the stretch and if he is not as good a pitcher from the stretch, now we are talking some bad pitching and not just bad luck. Sort of a snowball effect.

I don't think you're going to find anything Todd ...you and I tried several years ago when we hypothesized about the very same effect it may have had on Dave Bush's low WHIP versus high ERA numbers - and we both struck out trying to find something definitive.

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Alberto Callaspo and Mike Napoli in the field on a fairly regular basis.

I am admittedly not an expert in statistics as a science so I know there are better ways to say this and this argument has holes, but the larger point still stands.

If 8 people flip a coin 3 times, one "should" get all heads and one "should" get all tails. If heads is good luck and tails is bad luck, all Haren has done is flip 3 tails.

If you extend it to 4 flips/years, one out of 16 players should have worse luck the second half for 4 straight seasons.

All I am saying is it that it very well can be a coincidence. If you graph the expected "luck" of the MLB population and use 750 players as the base, about 47 of them can be expected to have worse luck the second half FOR FOUR STRAIGHT SEASONS.

23 of them for FIVE STRAIGHT SEASONS

12 of them for SIX STRAIGHT SEASONS

I see the point you are trying to make, but I disagree with it. If Haren's poor 2nd half performances were limited to six specific points in time, I could see the luck - but each one of these instances lasts for 2 and a half months. He has to have that bad luck for the greater majority of his second half performances for a 5 year period - and those appearances are spread out over time. He's not generating those performances over a period of consecutive days.

[Todd Zola]

I don't think you're going to find anything Todd ...you and I tried several years ago when we hypothesized about the very same effect it may have had on Dave Bush's low WHIP versus high ERA numbers - and we both struck out trying to find something definitive.

There is better data now

[da_big_kid_94]

I don't think you're going to find anything Todd ...you and I tried several years ago when we hypothesized about the very same effect it may have had on Dave Bush's low WHIP versus high ERA numbers - and we both struck out trying to find something definitive.

There is better data now

Ok ...I'm open to suggestion - any ideas?

Actually ...there is one - but it's going to make an assumption. If we use Baseball References' career stats for Haren with men on base and subtract out situations with runners on third only (and then we assume he winds up with a runner on third), we get a real head scratcher. Again - prelim findings.

Now this is CAREER - BA Against - Man on 3rd? .275. 2nd? .262. 1st .285 - BUT ... Bases loaded? .172! 2nd and 3rd? .189! 1st and 3rd? .291 - BUT a 12 and a half to 1 K to BB ration in that situation. This is becoming intriguing.

[Todd Zola]

This is all a work in progress which will hopefully pick up steam in the coming months, but yes, much of the data I use is from the Baseball Reference splits. I wrote an SI.com piece about this stuff earlier, I will see if I can find the link. It is still in the embryonic stage of development.

I am looking at the split data on a global basis and there are some oddities.

And FWIW, FIP is a measurement of ERA that is an "expected ERA" that removes some of the luck out of the equation. xFIP is similar but it regresses the HR/FB rate.

Basically, it tells what the results "should" have been based on the skills as input.

[da_big_kid_94]

This is all a work in progress which will hopefully pick up steam in the coming months, but yes, much of the data I use is from the Baseball Reference splits. I wrote an SI.com piece about this stuff earlier, I will see if I can find the link. It is still in the embryonic stage of development.

I am looking at the split data on a global basis and there are some oddities.

And FWIW, FIP is a measurement of ERA that is an "expected ERA" that removes some of the luck out of the equation. xFIP is similar but it regresses the HR/FB rate.

Basically, it tells what the results "should" have been based on the skills as input.

Thanks for the info, Todd ... now that I know, I'll just look at that the way I look at most derived stats ... the Racing Form lists the way the race SHOULD have gone ...now if I could only get the track to pay off on it!.

[Todd Zola]

Thanks for the info, Todd ... now that I know, I'll just look at that the way I look at most derived stats ... the Racing Form lists the way the race SHOULD have gone ...now if I could only get the track to pay off on it!.

As with most of my analogies, they are not perfect. I'm saving this one for when I can really focus on the data, but somewhere along the line, I will work in the following question:

Let's say Doctor A scored a 95% on the multiple choice exam that determined whether or not he graduated. Out of 100 question, he knew the answer to 80 of them, then guessed correctly on 15 of the remaining 20.

Now let's say Doctor B scored 90%. He knew the answer to 85 questions, then guessed correctly on only 5 of the remaining 15.

Which Doctor do you prefer to be treating you?

I'm taking the one that scored 5% worse based on the final results.

Obviously, I know this is not how things are done in the Medical world, that's not the point.

I'm just trying to present a "practical" example of how the end result does not accurately reflect the real skill (or in this case knowledge) of the individual.

You can make an analogy using betting. You can make an outrageous bet that goes against the odds and get lucky and win while someone who laid the proper bet can lose.

The end result does not always reflect the deftness of the process.

[da_big_kid_94]

I can also borrow two lines;

Abe Lemons : "Know what they call the guy who graduated last in his medical school class? Doctor!"

George Carlin : "Somewhere out there is the world's worst doctor ....and someone has an appointment to see him TOMORROW!!"

I understand what you are trying to say - I'm just saying that things like FIP show what SHOULD have happened if you put all the pertinent stats in a blender ...but that's not what actually happened .... welcome to roto/fantasy baseball.

[Todd Zola]

What's done is done, no argument.

But we may be able to fine tune what we think will happen next using component skill analysis.

To use another non-perfect analogy...

If you are asked what the result of a standard roll of a pair of dice will be, the "proper" answer is 7.

But you will be correct only 16.67% of the time.

[da_big_kid_94]

What's done is done, no argument.

But we may be able to fine tune what we think will happen next using component skill analysis.

To use another non-perfect analogy...

If you are asked what the result of a standard roll of a pair of dice will be, the "proper" answer is 7.

But you will be correct only 16.67% of the time.

And, in that, you are truly correct.

I'll try and birddog some information on the Haren lineups - that ought to take some time.

[Skin Blues]

I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Alberto Callaspo and Mike Napoli in the field on a fairly regular basis.

I am admittedly not an expert in statistics as a science so I know there are better ways to say this and this argument has holes, but the larger point still stands.

If 8 people flip a coin 3 times, one "should" get all heads and one "should" get all tails. If heads is good luck and tails is bad luck, all Haren has done is flip 3 tails.

If you extend it to 4 flips/years, one out of 16 players should have worse luck the second half for 4 straight seasons.

All I am saying is it that it very well can be a coincidence. If you graph the expected "luck" of the MLB population and use 750 players as the base, about 47 of them can be expected to have worse luck the second half FOR FOUR STRAIGHT SEASONS.

23 of them for FIVE STRAIGHT SEASONS

12 of them for SIX STRAIGHT SEASONS

I wrote something similar in May, not on here but somewhere else:

I don't buy into the, "this guy starts good and ends bad" stuff, or the other way around. With so many players, you're statistically bound to have guys who have a string of pre/post All-Star splits that show a trend when there isn't a reason to believe it'll continue. He's done it 4 years in a row, and the odds of a pitcher having a lower ERA pre-AS four years in a row are 1 in 16. It's possible he falls apart again late in the season. But then again, he's still got 3 months and 10 starts until the All-Star break for those of you that believe in the trend, anyway. If I had to bet money, I'd bet on him having a better ERA after the break than before it for this season, given that he's at a bloated 4.83 thus far with unsustainable bad luck, and I doubt he'll do worse than that in August and September. 3.88 K/BB pre-ASB, 3.82 K/BB post-ASB. The HR/9 is higher in post-ASB which is what causes his ERA to be higher but there's a great deal of bad luck affecting him as well ... True, the 1 in 16 thing doesn't mean that it will be a huge discrepancy, only that there will be some discrepancy without it being within their control. But note that he was better post-ASB in 2005 (4.08 vs 3.29) and 2004 (4.15 ERA pre-ASB in the minors, 2.76 ERA post-ASB in the majors), and in 2003 he had pretty much the same ERA in the minors in the first half as he did in the majors in the second half. So it's not a career trend to worsen after the break, it's a four year span that is pretty much the opposite of the previous three seasons where he pitched better in the second half.

I'll stick with my prediction that his post-ASB ERA will be lower than his pre-ASB ERA, despite spending most of it facing a DH. Definitely worth an all-in for an AL only league in my opinion, but this is my first year in that kind of league so maybe I'm not the best person to ask.