C. Guillen VS B. Boesch

[Trav The Ump]

I got lucky and read a bit of info on Boesch when he got called up for Guillen and managed to get him even though I was not first waiver priority. That has now worked out splendidly for myself and the Detroit Tigers but, there's always a but, we play old school rules so when Guillen gets back I have two Sundays to drop him or Boesch. Question time...

From this point forward, who is more valuable? Variables include...

A. Both right now are in my outfield, but when Guillen gets 2B eligibility (5 games) I might move him there and cut Betancourt for an OF'er.
B. I am trying to package both guys together for a scrub and an upgrade to mitigate this entirely.
C. It's unlikely I can cut either and than get them back the next week for Betancourt, although I could try this. Currently I'm in 4th in a 10 team league.

In case I can't get a deal in place help me think this through, thanks!

[Todd Zola]

Boesch has been EXTREMELY lucky. I mean as lucky as I have ever seen a player with respect to batting average on balls in play.

His BABIP of .426 is simply ridiculous. And what makes it utterly ridiculous is he only has a LD% of 18.8%. And what makes it absolutely, completely utterly ridiculous is he is hitting more fly balls than grounders.

I am working on a metric I call expected BABIP. The idea is to use league averages for likelihood of grounders, fly balls and liners becoming hits. With the caveat that players can have their own levels above and below the league average.

With that said, his expected BABIP based on his hit distribution and HR/FB is .295, which is less than league average of .300 because of his fly balls.

Also note that his walk rate is 2.6%.

SELL SELL SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[deansdaddy]

I don't disagree with Todd when it comes to trying to deal Boesch - but how about Darnell McDonald - with Ellsbury and Cameron on the mend - it looks like his days as an everyday bat are numbered.

[Captain Hook]

Interesting.....I am with both Ryan and Todd....to a point

1) Boesch - no his average won't remain that high, BUT the fact that Guillen is moving to second base is not only an inditement of the demoted Sizemore but also the replacements they have on the current roster, BUT a vote of confidence for Boesch - so at least as far as playing time going forward he looks fine - his HR and SB will still be of value in AL only leagues.

2) McDonald will have far LESS value going forward

3) When Guillen is back, can't you cut McDonald and activate Guillen into that spot?
Especially if McDonald has already been sent down

[Trav The Ump]

Alright, I should clarify all of the above questions.

Darnell McDonald is in for Coco Crisp, Crisp should be back soon meaning McDonald gets dropped right about the time Ellsbury is back.

Our roster moves are tied, meaning when I picked up Boesch for Guillen they are tied together. I can't keep both and drop someone else, one or the other. Same with the above. Mcdonald in fact is Crisp. Kapler is Granderson. Its a funny rule but encourages trading which is what I am trying to do right now.

I have sent out four offers, of which until I get replies do not matter. I have received one offer back so far. I give up my two Boesch and Guillen for Juan Rivera and a bum who I would than simply drop?

I like Rivera, but no speed to speak of. I agree Boesch seems to have gotten a vote of confidence and if he stays in the 5-6 hole could be valuable going forward.

Thoughts on this, will update if I get any more offers in.

[Captain Hook]

Our roster moves are tied, meaning when I picked up Boesch for Guillen they are tied together. I can't keep both and drop someone else, one or the other. Same with the above. Mcdonald in fact is Crisp. Kapler is Granderson. Its a funny rule but encourages trading which is what I am trying to do right now.

1) Activate Crisp and Guillen
a) first one back is in for McDonald; second one for Kapler

Granderson is a long way away

[mjlewis]

I am working on a metric I call expected BABIP. The idea is to use league averages for likelihood of grounders, fly balls and liners becoming hits. With the caveat that players can have their own levels above and below the league average.

Todd, you might be interested in http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... alculator/ .

- Mike

[deansdaddy]

Okay - weird rule - let me see if I have it straight.

Player A gets hurt so I pick up Player B.

Player A gets activated so I have two weeks to cut or trade player A or B. I cannot keep both however since B is tied to A.

However - I guess I can trade A or B for Player C then keep the two players who remain and cut someone else. Weird. I see that it helps trades cause you have no choice - but it devalues your assets when your trading partner knows you have a deadline to move a guy.

Seems like a penalty for anyone who scores in the replacment market. The fact that you can't cut Kapler and keep Boesch and Guillen is tough.

Also - why is brantley on the IR. He wasn't injured - he was a straight demotion. I can only assume you are able to stash aaa guys in IR slots - another strange loophole.

Well - I guess you ride it out but I think you should try to try both Guillen and Boesch for ONE better piece - or barring a trade keep Guillen. Kendrick has been known to miss time (much like Guillen) so at least you'll have a replacment should you need one.

[Todd Zola]

I am working on a metric I call expected BABIP. The idea is to use league averages for likelihood of grounders, fly balls and liners becoming hits. With the caveat that players can have their own levels above and below the league average.

Todd, you might be interested in http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... alculator/ .

- Mike

Thanks -- I had read that some time ago. They are doing things far more complicated than I can ever dream of doing it unless I was paid 100K a year to do this stuff

[Todd Zola]

FWIW, this is basically the original rule book way of playing.

[Trav The Ump]

FWIW, this is basically the original rule book way of playing.

You betcha, bang on Todd. Its why I call them Old School Rules. It does add the deadline effect as mentioned above but it does allow me some room to wiggle with trades etc. So yes, Crisp will go in for McDonald maybe even this Monday if the reports are good (did I mention we are weekly transactions too?). I do have two Sundays to try and trade Guillen and/ or Boesch before I am forced to make a decision between the two. Hence why I'm here a little early trying to make that decision in my mind.

As mentioned above, so far I have been offered Juan Rivera for the two along with a bum I would than drop.

(Brantley is in the minors so we put him on what we call the IR, technically reserve, because we have a minors system that ties up our reserve spots on CBS. Brantley is currently Yuniesky Betancourt on my roster.)

[Captain Hook]

It has been quite a while since I played in a league using the old book rules (they just aren't as much fun since they severely restrict Managing the team)......BUT IIRC you could activate Guillen to a natural opening without losing Boesch

IF that is the case, you would want to wait for McDonald to be sent down and activate Guillen into that spot.

Crisp should go in for Kapler (who is in Crisp's original spot) when he is back

IF that is not the case WHY would another team be able to use both Guillen and Boesch?

IF you can't do what I suggest I would trade both for Rivera (who has more power than both)

[Trav The Ump]

IF that is not the case WHY would another team be able to use both Guillen and Boesch?

IF you can't do what I suggest I would trade both for Rivera (who has more power than both)

Answer: Because the other team can legally trade me two active spots off of his roster into one of mine. So he puts Boesch in for Rivera and Guillen in for the bum. His roster is legal. I than immediately have to drop Rivera or the bum, obviously the bum and my roster is again legal.

I understand everyone's confusion as it is definitely a throw back way to play, but it's our 18th or 19th year with the rules so we are all pretty adapted to it.

In my mind what it allows is for teams to not benefit of simply stocking your team with injured stars at the draft and than plucking all the best FA's the first few weeks to load up a team. (We have no max IR/ Reserve. Just costs you in transaction fees). It most definitely hampers those with a good eye for talent/ luck but it does encourage trading which I always like in fantasy.

[Captain Hook]

Well like I said earlier I currently don't play in any leagues that are by the old book rules....BUT I checked with our friend Don Drooker (last year's XFL Champion who not only plays in AL and NL leagues by the book, but is the Commissioner for both) and I was almost correct.

Technically, if McDonald is sent down, you would move Broesch into McDonald's spot, then put Guillen into his original spot. THAT is what you should be looking to do unless someone is willing to overpay for one or both.

[Captain Hook]

Trav - just saw a note that (all of a sudden) Granderson is taking batting practice, so he could well be activted some time next week

[Trav The Ump]

Update - Sunday at midnight is the transaction deadline...

Mcdonald gets cut, Crisp returns to the lineup.

May try and get some info on Granderson, is 3 days of him better than a week of part time for Kapler?

I will try and sit on Guillen for the full two Sundays or at least until he gets 2B eligibility (5 games) making him more tradeable in my mind.

Working a deal for either Juan Rivera from one owner, have also been bantering with the last place team for Brett Gardner. He doesn't seem keen on that, but he also has Scotty Pods who I have now asked for in place of Gardner. I'm light on steals and as my 4th or 5th OFer I don't mind Pods.

[Trav The Ump]

Final update - I ended up swinging this deal;

I send Boesch, Guillen, Brantley and Valido and get back Podsednik, Atkins (dropped), Lowell (dropped) and Aaron Hicks.

Ended up being a 3 for 2 but I needed the SB's Podsednik provides. I also really like Hicks potential, Twins seems to be a good organization to play for. I was bound to lose one of Guillen/ Boesch so I turned that into Pods instead. He needed to lose some dead weight off his (last place) team and that cost me Brantley but with Choo, Sizemore (when healthy), Kearns and Crowe ahead of him he's just not going to get the AB's this year. I also really like Hicks and feel he's a good long term guy.

Thanks for all the help and input everyone!