Rating a Pitcher's Start
Posted: April 18th, 2010, 2:34 pm
I've been messing around with this for about three weeks. I want to get a means of rating each pitchers starts in an effort to see who is doing weell fantasy-wise. In leagues like the NFBC, you typically have options each week and making the right ones helps. I don't see this as being the same as what Todd is looking for but maybe a cousin once removed.
Let me say, I totally dislike the quality start formula. Three runs in six innings is not good - it is bad. Also, it does nothing with baserunners which is huge in fantasy because WHIP counts. I also don't like Shandlers formula although my current concept is somewhat similar. Shandler is too heavy on skills and less on results. Finally, I want to easily see all the things I need from the pitchers box score and not have to look to the details - like HR allowed.
My current version awards up to five points for an outing. They are:
1. 6 IP or 5 IP with a win. I am not going to punish a pitcher who is taken out after 5 innings with a 10-0 lead. I want innings but sometimes it does not matter. Correia the other day went 5.1 but reached a pitch count. Still he had a huge lead. No punishment here.
2. K/W greater of 2.5 or better. Isn't that the dividing line used for expected success? This is my one true skills-based factor.
3. Ks at 6 or more. It is a category that counts.
4. ERA of 4.00 or less. This is above average and better than the current MLB QS.
5. WHIP of 1.33 or less. Now 1.30 may be better but 1.33 is easy to figure. Plus I'm a beliver that WHIP*3 equates to ERA. 1.33 *3 = 4.00.
A pitcher's score is from five to zero.
The smell test is that I typically feel happy if my player performs at a 4/5 level and I am not pleased at a 0/1 performance. With a 2/3, I tend to see if he got the win. If he did, I'm OK but if he didn't, I sort of wish I didn't start him unless he did something real good like 12 Ks.
Like Shandler 4s and 5s are good. 0s and 1s are bad. 2s and 3s are so-so.
What this is missing is the team the picther faced. When possible, I'm inclined to sit pitchers on a cold streak and start them if they are hot.
My problem right now is four of my six teams are "blessed" with lots of cold pitchers. I can't bench them all. Also three of my six leagues have no bench so you pretty much have to suffer at times.
Let me say, I totally dislike the quality start formula. Three runs in six innings is not good - it is bad. Also, it does nothing with baserunners which is huge in fantasy because WHIP counts. I also don't like Shandlers formula although my current concept is somewhat similar. Shandler is too heavy on skills and less on results. Finally, I want to easily see all the things I need from the pitchers box score and not have to look to the details - like HR allowed.
My current version awards up to five points for an outing. They are:
1. 6 IP or 5 IP with a win. I am not going to punish a pitcher who is taken out after 5 innings with a 10-0 lead. I want innings but sometimes it does not matter. Correia the other day went 5.1 but reached a pitch count. Still he had a huge lead. No punishment here.
2. K/W greater of 2.5 or better. Isn't that the dividing line used for expected success? This is my one true skills-based factor.
3. Ks at 6 or more. It is a category that counts.
4. ERA of 4.00 or less. This is above average and better than the current MLB QS.
5. WHIP of 1.33 or less. Now 1.30 may be better but 1.33 is easy to figure. Plus I'm a beliver that WHIP*3 equates to ERA. 1.33 *3 = 4.00.
A pitcher's score is from five to zero.
The smell test is that I typically feel happy if my player performs at a 4/5 level and I am not pleased at a 0/1 performance. With a 2/3, I tend to see if he got the win. If he did, I'm OK but if he didn't, I sort of wish I didn't start him unless he did something real good like 12 Ks.
Like Shandler 4s and 5s are good. 0s and 1s are bad. 2s and 3s are so-so.
What this is missing is the team the picther faced. When possible, I'm inclined to sit pitchers on a cold streak and start them if they are hot.
My problem right now is four of my six teams are "blessed" with lots of cold pitchers. I can't bench them all. Also three of my six leagues have no bench so you pretty much have to suffer at times.