I had to put this project on hold. I'm not sure if I will dust it off this summer, depends on what I end up doing. Here are my quick reactions to these thoughtful ideas.
daweasle wrote:I would think when coming up with this formula - that LOB% could be calculated for a given team's actual bullpen and be part of the statistics used to create game score.
(IE we know that ATL's combination of oflaherty/venters/kimbrel is a stud bullpen which should have a good LOB%) - so all ATL SP should have a little uptick added to their game score assuming if they left the game with runners on, those three should be able to get out of the jam.
On contrary Orioles bullpen is looking to be pretty bad, so their SP would all take a down tick.
I understand the principle, but am not sure i agree it should be included. Obviously, this impacts the pitcher's ability to win the game, which to me is a small aspect of the game score. I'm not trying to determine who will win the game, but rather who will help your fantasy team more. Sure, a win is part of it, but only one category and how the pitcher himself does for 7 innings is more important than the bullpen. That said, in a points league where wins are a lot or points, I can see having strength of bullpen be part of the scoring.
I say some other factors that might be incorporated -
daweasle wrote:1. infielders range. example - if you have a guy like jose reyes eating up everything, you're going to get more outs than if d jeter is playing shortstop. same would apply if miggy cabrera moves to third base.
This would already be included, albeit indirectly, using the pitchers hit rate in the calculation, since hit rate is in part a result of the defense.
daweasle wrote:2. offensive production - OK this is going to sound counter-intuitive - but being a pitcher on a team with a great offense has positive and negative consequences for a SP. Sure it's going to put him in line to get more wins. But if you are looking for good ratios - having a six run lead can kill a ERA. The coaching staff changes their philosophy on how to approach hitters and it often results in a run or two scoring that would not have scored in a close game. SO while I appreciate having a guy like john lackey getting 6+ runs of support in his starts last year, I don't appreciate that he pitched like he only had to hold the other team to 5. (and rarely did that) LACKEY is a bad example because most of your readers are smart enough to stay away from him - but there are plenty of cases where this applies.
The whole "pitch to the score" thing is more announcer speak than anything. Basically, it is BS, it odes not happen. Pitchers do not want to give up runs, regardless of the score. Of course, your point about letting a run score and getting a DP instead or whatever is well taken, as is perhaps giving up some runs because defensive indifference led to an extra base and the guy scored on a single or whatever, but the bottom line is the number of these "garbage time" runs is insignificant, as well as unpredictable. Plus, in effect, they will already be accounted for in the peripherals for the pitcher.
daweasle wrote:3. another factor that would be harder to gauge but certainly is a factor - weather. IE hot temps/humidity makes the ball fly further. cold hard ground makes the infield harder. etc. I have no idea how to quantify that - but it may be worth considering because we all know texas pitchers are better in april than august.
And the wind blows in at Wrigley in April, etc. The way I would account for this is using a weighted average of seasonal performance versus recent performance. The recent performance would reflect the weather conditions of that time, or if that pitcher is not affected, that would be accounted or as well.
daweasle wrote:4. playing on a field significantly different from your home field. IE - if you usually play on grass and go play an away game on grass - it's different. (but there are fewer differences than:)
But if you usually play on grass and then you go play an away game in tropicana field with turf and a ceiling that's oddly shaped, that can be really hard on fielders and I believe can decrease their range or lead to a few more errors. (I know unearned runs don't impact ERA - don't get me started on that topic cause I coach a travel ball team and I can't tell you how many time a shutout turned into a loss after a couple errors)
The sample size would be so small that it is not possible to quantify it, plus I don't think it makes that much of a difference on this level. And, it if it is significant, that would be folded into the park factor which is already included in the algorithm.
daweasle wrote:5. playing away games on fields with lots of foul territory. this can lead to more foul popouts and while it is a minute factor - it certainly could play a role in predicting performance.
This is also accounted for in the park factor.
daweasle wrote:6. Ability to hold runners - I am not sure how to quantify this - but let's say you're a pitcher who is not good at holding runners on base. If you face a team that doesn't run much(TIGERS) - that's not a big deal. But if you face a team who sends every runner and half their base runners have a green light(RAYS) - that can be a huge difference in the ball game.
I call this the Mark Buehrle effect but I am not sure how to quantify it. Some pitchers that consistently out pitch their peripherals, or sustain a BABIP below average do so because they have a great pick off move or are excellent at fielding their position. This is actually something I would love to build into my projection model, but the data is still sketchy. Perhaps including LOB% into the algorithm would account for this -- actually, I like this idea.
Just a few factors I thought might end up in your overall formula. If they don't, it's cool, but it's something to think about and decide if you should toss it.