Adrian Gonzalez

[viper]

In my NL-only league, the draft is over but I have an interesting question for you all to mull.

How much would you discount Adrian Gonzalez if your league's rules stated that you do not get statistics for a player traded out of the league. There has been much talk that Adrian could be dealt in July. It probably isn't going to happen but when your only compensation is having first crack at players traded into the league, you would essentially be taking some level of a gamble if you drafted him. You know that players coming back would be prospects and this is a redraft league.

Thoughts

[lawr]

i would just try to ignore the churn.

there are a few ultimate possibilities for gonzo, but more for you, but i think here is what it boils down to, mike...

he goes to the AL. you get first shot at the prospects, but you probably won't get close to value for him if you trade with the idea he is going, so, you may as well bite it (unless someone is seriously into assuming the risk now, which is unlikely, but, maybe a bottom tier team with nothing to lose).

he goes to the nl. and, life is beautiful.

i just think you are better off just risking the whole shot and trying not to worry about it, though. if he goes to the AL, it is an act of god, like tejada getting hurt or something out of script.

[Skin Blues]

Presumably, everybody has the same knowledge about possible trades. This lowers his value for everybody and makes it pointless to trade him for fear of a league change. I can't see a reason for a certain team to have higher/lower risk aversion than other teams.

Now, this doesn't address his new value, but given that he could still be traded within the NL - and if he was, his value would almost certainly rise as it would probably be a good team that certainly plays in a better park - it's almost pointless to worry about it. Like Lawr says, treat it like an injury risk. That said, if a team in your league is irrationally panicking about having him, by all means fleece them! I mean, think of all the certainty that James Loney has of remaining in LA.

[viper]

Our league has an odd draft pattern. I had the 10 pick [10-team league] and the first pick in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds. My first two picks were Tulowitzki & Wright. To start the 3rd round I wanted to taken Haren but he went two picks earlier. I was faced with a Votto or Adrian decision and chose Votto. I have them very close in value and the combination of loving my first two picks and rule rule if traded out of the league was the deciding factor.

Given our odd waiver rules, I very well may be able to get Leake tomorrow if I want to drop either Lohse or Doug Davis.