Historical Projection Accuracy

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Skin Blues
Major League Regular
Posts: 63
Joined: March 13th, 2010, 11:24 am

Historical Projection Accuracy

#1 Post by Skin Blues »

Has anybody done anything like this with the major prognosticators? I realize the Marcel rule, but would still be interested to see how certain systems deal with the pool of unpredictable players. I'd do this myself, but the problem is finding projection data for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. My overall goal is to combine the strong aspects of the Mastersball projections (namely playing time and opportunity dependent counting stats) with a more objective approach to predicting rate stats as done by PECOTA, Chone, ZiPS, and of course Mastersball itself.

I've found an article dealing with this from HardballTimes (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ctions-do/), but it only deals with OPS and ERA, which are pretty good overall indicators, but really lack in some areas such as BA/WHIP not having much of a correlation to OPS/ERA. So, long story short... anybody have a bunch of old projection sets available?

daweasle
Major League Veteran
Posts: 222
Joined: February 27th, 2009, 1:29 am

Re: Historical Projection Accuracy

#2 Post by daweasle »

I have about 7-8 files of old projections saved(2006-2009)

various providers including mastersball, fantasybaseball.com and rototimes and maybe another?

gimme an email address and I can forward to you in excel via email

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