NFBC Draft Strategy - #7 Spot

[tamburgy]

I'm participating in my first NFBC draft this Thursday and I'm drafting out of the #7 spot.

Assuming that Pujols, Hanley, ARod, Braun, Utley and Kemp are gone (as I would probably take 1 of those guys if they don't go), who would you recommend I take at #7?

I'm thinking my options are the following:

Fielder/Cabrera/Teix - great power foundation, but 1B is deep this year and you can find value at 1B later. Not even sure which of them I would grab.

Crawford - nice speed foundation, but not a big fan of taking an OF with my first pick, as there is ample value with OFs later on in the draft.

Longoria - great power foundation and scarcity pick, but not as steady/certain as one of the 1B guys.

Any thoughts, ideas, strategy would be appreciated. Many thanks.

[viper]

I'm at the #6 hole on Wednesday in a satellite so we have pretty much the same issues.

The only ones I feel will definitely be gone are Pujols, Hanley & ARod. My personal remaining next three are Utley, Longoria and Braun. I like the idea of getting a 3B early and dislike the thought of taking an OF. Leaving OFs as long as possible opens up the options come about rounds 7-12. The first several picks dictate many future options. Where I see issues are on the 2/3 turn. You are a bit closer to the middle than me but at #2, there will likely be several solid 1Bs remaining as infield options - gain trying not to take an OF. I would like to get a MI in the second but I think all the better choices will be gone. I only see Phillips and Rollins as not being reaches at that time. Reyes will be on someone's elses team unless he slipps to about round 7, which will not happen. My #3 pick is totally undetermined with VMart, a corner or my first OF as options. I can see me taking Ichiro at #3 if my draft goes certain ways with average and steals weak.

I'm sure I will take an SP at #4 or #5. Heck, I may consider it at #3 but I doubt it. At #4 or #5, the top SPs will be gone and waiting until the #6/#7 choices will see me without an anchor SP.

I have several specialized draft lists at the Fanball site. Three are named SPEED, POWER and AVERAGE. I have the top players in each category in a separate list ranked by ADP. This gives me a quick glance at likely to-be-taken options for those three categories each time I am up. I have a bit of subdividing here but each list has about 50 players. I did a mock on Fanball last night and I could see the advantage of these lists when making selections. My draft spreadsheet has these things but sometimes I can't see the forest through the trees on these categories when pressed for time.

[rotodog]

I have drafted in a Sat league from the 7 hole..

2 guys you didnt mention are Tulowitzki and D wright...

The way things are shaping up, these two are going sooner than ADP suggests and might put you in the best position in rd 2 and 3 to round out the IF...

Lawr took Tulo with the 5 pick and it worked out well.

I took Wright at 7 and rounded out well with

rd 2 B Philips
rd 3 Werth
rd 4 Jeter..

Lawr went
Tulo
B Phillips
Youk

I think more people are pushing the stud 1b a bit farther and going Pos scarcity and roster construction....

I dont like Crawford there at all because of so much cheaper speed later esp in the OF....

[tamburgy]

I saw the post re Lawr and Todd taking Tulo early and have been considering it since then. I may actually lean that way, as in the mocks, there seem to be good value at 2B (Phillips, Pedroia, Cano) and 3B (Zimm, Youk, Pablo) in rounds 2/3.

Yesterday I considered Wright (I even posted a thread on the HQ forums asking "Why not Wright at #7" laying out my argument for taking him there), but, while I think he bounces back, it's a pretty big risk. I'd rather play a little more safe; although if he does bounce back, it's a big gain.

I seem to be leaning toward Tulo at the moment . . . althought my "moments" seem to be changing on an hourly basis

[Todd Zola]

With the caveat it is always best to take what comes to you, there is a decent shot you can start Longoria then Rollins, which would not be the worst duo.

The fallback would be a second baseman.

The problem is 3rd round is where you are most likely to get a 3B.

With that said, if you are considering a stating pitcher early, Longoria then Rollins/Kinsler/Phillips etc in the second sets you up for Haren/CC/Greinke etc. in the 3rd.

[Todd Zola]

And finally, as much as we talk about pieces of a puzzle, snagging the power 1B then pairing him with Crawford or Ellsbury in the second is a heckuva value based power/speed start. Sometimes we get too caught up in playing cute (lots of OF available, lots of speed late). Sometimes the value trumps that and you adjust.

[deansdaddy]

I doubt Crawford is around in the second - but one of the following might be - Sizemore/Upton/Ellsbury - you will also have the choice of Phillips or any of the 3B/1B left - likely Youk/Zimm/Sandoval/Reynolds/A Gonzo/Votto - however I would lay money that NONE of these guys will make it back to you in the third. More than likely you will be looking at Cano/Werth/Ichiro with a possibility that Reyes slips here. Victor Martinez will look real tempting in the third round as well. You will also get a chance to grab a Top SP as I wouldn't be surprised to see some selected around you. But just seeing Lawr's grab of CC in the 4th might be enough to convince you to wait on SP's. The 4th rd will likely provide the opportunity to grab a Jeter or Zobrist out of the MI pool or a Nelson Cruz/BJ Upton/A lind. Maybe even a Kendry Morales or D Lee if you wait on a 1B. The 5th round - you should think SP if you don't have one - just because you will likely see a run heading in and out of that 5/6 wheel - so if there is a guy you really like there - I would do like Todd says and "Draft the pitcher not the round".

As for your first round - don't be shocked if Kemp falls in your lap - and be prepared for it if he does. Do you take him if he does?

[tamburgy]

That's really the question I've been asking myself - do I grab Kemp if he falls?

Along the other lines, if I do take Tulo at #7, my hope would be to grab one of each of the following groups: (3B) Sandoval, Youk, Zimm and (2B) Phillips, Pedroia, Cano.

If I take Phillips, there is a good chance that all of the 3B guys above will be gone by the 3rd round (pick #37). I think there's a better shot that Cano is there in the 3rd round than all of the other guys mentioned, which means its probably safer to grab one of the 3B in the 2nd round, and see who's remaining out of the 2B guys in the 3rd (most likely Cano). Under this thought process, which of the three 3B guys, assuming all are there in Round 2, would you take and pair with Tulo and Cano?

Of course, as mentioned above, if Kemp falls, all bets are off (although I really am not keen on taking OF first).

Thanks for the advice, especially the advice on grabbing Pitchers.

[Guest]

I've been very happy going with Longoria/SS/2B in the first three rounds. Done it in three drafts and all look "right" to me.

But as Todd says, you can't go wrong with a 45HR bat in the first round either - I just think you want to get 2B/SS/3B out of the way early. I/We love the later OF in rounds 4-10.

[tamburgy]

When you went Longoria/SS/2B in your drafts, what spot were you picking from?

I considered this route, but from my spot, the SS pick in round two would be a reach. There's little chance that Rollins falls to pick 24 (and Hanley and Tulo already gone, obviously), which would leave me with a Jeter or Reyes, both of whom, Im personally not a big fan.

If I was a little later in the first round, I would more likely consider Longoria if there was a strong chance that Rollins would be there for my second round pick.

I'm with you on the SS/3B/2B combo with the first three picks, Im just trying to find the best way to maximize those by finding an order that would be both efficient and realistic. So far, it's my opinion that Tulo/3B/2B is the least riskies path from my spot to grab solid guys at each of those positions in the first three rounds.

[Todd Zola]

FWIW, the injuries to Reyes and Roberts have rendered the 3B/SS/2B ploy a tad more difficult.

If I am going to let one slide, it is 2B as there a lot of guys I like later (Polanco, Prado, Johnson,Weeks)

Rollins was being drafted late second, early third, but he has been a riser and is now early second which takes away the SS option in the 2nd for most.

[Kelly_Leak]

In my NFBC league I went Longoria 1.9, Rollins 2.7 and Phillips 3.9. I originally thought I would be taking my first SP in round 3, but was pleasantly surprised to see Brandon there. I posted my entire team about a week ago in the Team Management forum if you want to check out my whole roster.

[tamburgy]

The news of DL possibility of Kinsler may also make the ploy more difficult.

I thought its interesting to note, that based off of drafts in some of the big-leagues this past weekend (Lawr and Todd taking Tulo at #5, and NFBC Veteran Shawn Childs taking Tulo at #7 in the NFBC Diamond League), I participated in two NFBC Fanball mock drafts over the last two days (one had 13/15 live participants, the other had 12/15) and Tulo was grabbed at #6 BOTH TIMES.

Just a heads-up for anyone planning to build around him with a first round pick - he may not be there when you pick, even if early, so plan accordingly

In those mocks, Kemp slid past #6 both times and Utley past #6 once (Fielder went #5 in that one). Other notable points - All top 7 (at least in my view) 2B were gone by the second pick of round 4 (Utley, Phillips, Kinsler, Cano, Pedroia, Zobrist, Hill).

[tamburgy]

So I did a little recon this morning and reviewed the draft results from the last two days for Satellite leagues (which are posted on the NFBC site) and came across an interesting nugget. An owner who participated in a satellite league yesterday is also in my league tonight.

However, the bad news is that he took Tulo at pick #6 yesterday, and tonight, I'm sitting at #7, and he's sitting at #5. While there is still a decent chance he doesn't take him at #5 (may not want same guy on two teams, may like an Utley or Braun better, etc), I have to go into this assuming I won't get Tulo (although I have a plan if he does fall).

With this in mind, I might be left with what I think are my best options: Utley, Kemp, or Longoria.

Any suggestions on who you'd prefer, and how to approach the next two rounds? I was going to try the SS/3B/2B strategy, but if Tulo is gone, I don't think I can grab a SS (Rollins won't fall to me in the 2nd round, and Jeter is a stretch in the 3rd, IMO).

Many thanks.

[rotodog]

So I did a little recon this morning and reviewed the draft results from the last two days for Satellite leagues (which are posted on the NFBC site) and came across an interesting nugget. An owner who participated in a satellite league yesterday is also in my league tonight.

However, the bad news is that he took Tulo at pick #6 yesterday, and tonight, I'm sitting at #7, and he's sitting at #5. While there is still a decent chance he doesn't take him at #5 (may not want same guy on two teams, may like an Utley or Braun better, etc), I have to go into this assuming I won't get Tulo (although I have a plan if he does fall).

With this in mind, I might be left with what I think are my best options: Utley, Kemp, or Longoria.

Any suggestions on who you'd prefer, and how to approach the next two rounds? I was going to try the SS/3B/2B strategy, but if Tulo is gone, I don't think I can grab a SS (Rollins won't fall to me in the 2nd round, and Jeter is a stretch in the 3rd, IMO).

Many thanks.

i would most likely go in that order..utley, Kemp if your Tulo is gone... I personally would consider Wright if they are all gone, but that's not for everyone....

If kemp is your guy, you can very possibly grab a Philips, Rollins and maybe an Ian kinsler if he slips due to news in the 2nd..

then grab a 3b in the 3rd and maybe jeter is there in the 4th....

[tamburgy]

Thanks for the advice Rotodog. However, I have doubts that one of the top 3B will still be there in the 3rd round for me at pick #37.

I created an excel sheet this morning that analyzes the draft results of all of the NFBC Satellite Drafts conducted over the last two days (this encompasses 17 drafts in total) to create a "current" NFBC ADP for my draft tonight (the excel sheet also includes the highest and lowest draft positions, as well as all of the data (i.e., each pick # per player for all 17 drafts). I noticed that the ADP of the top 7 3B (ARod, Wright, Longoria, Youk, Reynolds, Zimm, and Pablo) are all before pick #37 (with Pablo being the lowest at pick #32). I'm probably going to need to pick a 3B in round 1 or 2 so as not to be stuck with an Aramis or Beckham.

BTW, if anyone would like a copy of the ADP sheet I created, feel free to send a private message and I'll email it to you.

Thanks.