Reviewing Last Year's Top 50

[ShawnC]

Before I go any farther with this years list, I'm going to see what I can learn from v.2008. My comments from last year are in italics followed by an update. I'll start with the top 10 and work my way down:

1 Joba Chamberlain – not a unanimous choice as he'll certainly be lower on most of the lists that come out. Most of it will be based on injury concerns - I'm willing to role the dice and say he's going to be fine. I think he has realized his body type will require him controlling his weight and he'll take care of himself.

So far so good, but the injury concern I touched on did re-appear. At this point I think he’s an all or nothing gamble as he’s either going to completely break down as the Yanks continue to stretch him out, or he’ll be a staff ace if he’s able to endure.

2 Jay Bruce - I think it's really more of a 1a/1b with him and Joba. This guys is going to be what Austin Kearns should have been and then some.

Relatively quiet, but put together an impressive string of power later in the season. Still needs to refine his pitch selection and patience, but appears to be adjusting.

3 Clay Buchholz - Has already thrown a no-hitter in the majors. Dominated the minors. Putting him at #3 / below Joba is not a slam by any means.

Huge step backward last year, I think he’ll be fine, but I definitely have worries here.

4 Clayton Kershaw - a lefty who looks like he may be a once-in-a-generation lefty. Sizzling fastball with secondary stuff that is good and still improving. Command is an issue, but not a major flaw at this point as he was promoted agressively and ended the year in AA as a 19 year old. May actually make his MLB debut in '08, more likely '09. Billingsley + Kershaw combo is going to be fun to watch.

Exceeded my expectations as he got to the show quicker than I expected. I think the peaks are much more telling than the valleys we saw with him last year.

5 Evan Longoria - very close to MLB ready and if he doesn't start the year in Tampa, it won't be a long stay for him in Durham. Hits with authority - while he does K a little, he is one of those guys that when he hits the ball it just sounds different. I think he’ll be a perennial All-Star.

Nailed it. He started in Durham for a short stretch, he hit with authority, he K’ed a bit and he made the All-Star team.

6 Colby Rasmus - Absolutely crushed the ball last year. Had a stretch where he was sick and it hurt his numbers for about a month. Demonstrated a Jay Bruce-like ability for most of the year in '07. Good candidate / most likely to be #1 on this list next year.

I hate Tony LaRussa. If he can overcome the damage the Cards did to him last year, he still looks good in this spot. I think he will as long as he’s mature enough to act professional when he’s with the big league club. If he holds a grudge, things could go south quickly.

7 Homer Bailey - kind of a weird year for Bailey and his stock has fallen because of it. I still think he's going to be a true front end of the rotation guy.

Alright, which one of you hacked my account and put this in here? Swing and a miss… or not so much anymore these days in Baileys’ case. He’s in jeopardy of being a complete bust. Ugliest pick on this list, but redemption is just below…

8 Joey Votto - may not have the sheer upside as many on this list, but his numbers make it hard to slide him too far down in the rankings. Good eye at the plate, gap power that could translate into more HR's and will swoop up some bags along the way. Very valuable from a fantasy perspective and should be interesting to see him hit behind Bruce.

Perhaps my proudest moment in these rankings as I didn’t see any major publications with him in their top 20, let alone their top 10 (BA had him at #44). The added power showed up and he showed a good all-around approach at the plate. Finished second to Geo Soto in NL ROY. (Soto was definitely an oversight by this Cubs fan.)

9 Cameron Maybin - This guy is one of the toughest to figure out due to him not performing up to expectations of some. He did pretty well in AA as a 20 year old last year, albeit a small sample size. Most athletic player on this list, only question is can he take the tools and forge them into baseball skills?

I’ve laid out my story in this year’s list and I’m stickin’ to it…

10 David Price – This one was a gimme –everyone knew what was coming, he just had to put up stats before he could become numero uno.

[SteveB]

With regards to Homer you werent the only one to swing and miss. He might indeed turn into a huge bust.

I read this site about a month ago and have kept it bookmarked because i wanted to refer to it before my draft. Anyways the article about Homer is very eye opening.

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/ ... cs-homer-b

[ShawnC]

With regards to Homer you werent the only one to swing and miss

True enough, but I certainly was one who jumped ship later than most.

Drivelinemechanics is an excellent site.