Pitcher Evaluation Theory

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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cubswin

Pitcher Evaluation Theory

#1 Post by cubswin »

In the recent Pitcher Evaluation Article the conclusion stated- "Hopefully this analysis provides some food for thought in evaluating pitchers of all types. Upcoming site pieces will focus on some pitchers who possess these peripherals and might represent players worth keeping or staying away from."

I've got a draft tomorrow and was wondering if you could post a quick list of pitchers to target/avoid. Thanks!

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Todd Zola
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Re: Pitcher Evaluation Theory

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

I'll be posting a different pitching piece later tomorrow, it is the pitcher section of the positional reviews we are doing. I'm not sure if Gary has plans on doing a follow-up or if that was missed in updating the piece for posting this season.

But since Gary handled the majority of the pitching profiles, that is the place to look.
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Re: Pitcher Evaluation Theory

#3 Post by Guest »

Here are 5 guys whose peripherals present potential upside and 5 whose present downside.

This is NOT a target/avoid list. Our projections and profiles take all of this into account already. This is just a pure numerical look at the peripherals. Further not focusing on well known guys, as we cover them all over the place. Further, this is not a projection of guys whose projections are too high and low. The projections are the projections for a reason. This is a speculative look.

UP
Ian Kennedy - NL could be good to him. Never going to be a stud but looks like solid back end peripherals.
David Robertson -yes, probably not drafted in many league types but this is a closer skill set.
Carl Pavano - More speculative, but he really is a slightly improved HR rate from being quite effective
Wade Davis - might be worth the stash, very strong skill set for his age.
Jason Bulger - Not sure he ever sees save ops but very good late inning skill set
extra credit - Mat Latos - speculating on young pitching has its pitfalls but...

DOWN
Jose Mijares - stuns me people think he'll get a bunch of saves. He doesn't fit the profile, unless he really grows this year.
Rick Porcello - Jason Grey thinks he gets better, I just see lousy K, KBB rates. Park helps. Won't be on my teams.
JA Happ - K rate is OK but BB too many and pitches in a HR park anyways.
Jair Jurrjens - I only bring him up because he sits there fairly glaring; there is a price you'd pay regardless just because 2009 seasons like him at his age don't grow on trees but just letting you all know...
John Lannan - not sure anyone would roster him, but in case you were thinking about it....don't.
extra credit - Joe Saunders - a guy who seems to outpitch peripherals every yr but at some point he wont.....

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