Pick #5 in OBP League

[david_hume]

12 team mixed 5x5 league with OBP instead of BA. 1 C, 2 1B, otherwise normal positions.

I have the 5th pick. The clear first 4 to me are Pujols, Hanley, Fielder, and Braun, and I have them in that order. If those guys are picked top 4 I think I am between Teixeira and A-Rod for my pick. Any thoughts? I am not a big Ryan Howard fan though he is in the conversation. I can't see taking Longoria or Wright over A-Rod. Utley? Kemp? Mauer?

On the way back (pick 20) I am dreaming of Sizemore or Tulowitzki...

[daweasle]

I think teixeira is the right pick because of the OBP & 2 first baseman rule.

The OBP rule and the 2 1B rule makes me think you should be dreaming of adam dunn/joey votto/adrian gonzales is there for you either at 20 or 28. That would be a huge stable to your OBP if you had teix and one of those three. if only one of them is available at 20 - I would take him. if all three are there - maybe you can take someone else knowing that two of the four guys picking on the turn already have fielder and pujols.

[Todd Zola]

Even with OBP and 2-1B, you can find a quality first baseman or two under value later in a draft as the field is deep.

I can see taking one early if you get a stud, but taking 2 is going to hurt you later.

The idea is not to necessarily get the best player with the first pick, but to set yourself up to draft the best overall team.

Here is the top-20 from our rankings in an OBP league.

Pujols, Albert
Ramirez, Hanley
Fielder, Prince
Howard, Ryan
Braun, Ryan
Rodriguez, Alex
Teixeira, Mark
Longoria, Evan
Wright, David
Cabrera, Miguel
Dunn, Adam
Utley, Chase
Werth, Jayson
Gonzalez, Adrian
Tulowitzki, Troy
Kemp, Matt
Reynolds, Mark
Upton, Justin
Sizemore, Grady
Holliday, Matt

I think I would look ARod at 5, though I would not be shocked if he went top-4. Then look for Dunn in the second.

[lawr]

i would not focus so much on OBP the first round so much because all the top flight players have the ability to get on base pretty well anyway. but, i would look some at scarcity, and figure for first base if you can cop joey votto by the third round, he is a justifiable pick and a terrific obp guy as well. let the other guys fuss over teix and howard. in fact, i am good with tulo as a first pick in that vein. that way you have a shortstop, and can get a second sacker on the return, and then target votto for round three.

[david_hume]

todd is correct that 1B scarcity is not a big problem in this format. there are enough 1B in the draftable pool to fill all the slots without adjusting for the fact that there are two 1B roster spots. there are 47 cornermen in the draftable pool, and 48 slots (2 1B, 1 3B, 1 CI). in other words, a lot of UT slots filled by OFs. though i hadn't thought of this until todd's post, i agree that taking two 1B very early limits your ability to fully realize value later in the draft. but i still might end up with dunn/votto in the 2nd if i get fielder.

the 3B pool is not as deep (12 $10+ players vs. 17 at 1B). it's also more likely that you'll use a 3B as your CI, as discussed above. for those reasons i think i will take a-rod at 5 if my top 4 go before me. i considered taking him ahead of braun but i don't think i will.

[Todd Zola]

Not knowing the dynamics of the league, if you think you may have an advantage over some people feeling you have a better grasp of OBP valuation, then best player available early may be the call and utilize your preparation to fill in the holes later.

That gives more credence to drafting Braun.

Something else to consider is a common theme of this season is the plethora of cheap speed. I haven't looked at the comparisons yet, but intuitively, some of this cheap speed might be a detriment in an OBP league. So you may want to look to get those 10-15 steals from your first few picks, another reason to like Braun.

[david_hume]

My guess would be that most of the others in the league are not creating custom values using OBP. A couple of people may be, and the rest are either trying to have a non-numeric awareness of the OBP/BA difference or just ignoring it entirely and using 5x5 values with BA.

Sorting my values by SB$, the cheap speed is obvious. 8 of the top 15 base stealers are worth less than $6 total. A lot of them are right around replacement level in OBP. I don't know where they fall in BA$ off the top of my head. So perhaps I should load up on HR and shy away from the Ellsbury/Crawford/B Upton types, planning to pick up cheap OF speed later.

[Todd Zola]

Actually, my point was more to avoid the cheap speed as they will hurt you in OBP, whereas they don't hurt you as much in BA. I'll do the value comparison and check back in a second...

[Todd Zola]

TOP 20 MORE VALUABLE IN OBP

Dunn, Adam $9
Cust, Jack $8
Johnson, Nick $7
Swisher, Nick $6
Pena, Carlos $6
Jones, Chipper $6
Zobrist, Ben $6
Uggla, Dan $6
Fukudome, Kosuke $6
Pujols, Albert $6
Sizemore, Grady $5
Drew, J.D. $5
Berkman, Lance $5
Fielder, Prince $5
Weeks, Rickie $5
Werth, Jayson $5
Glaus, Troy $5
Bay, Jason $5
Gonzalez, Adrian $4
Burrell, Pat $4

[Todd Zola]

TOP 25 in SB and the difference in OBP (negative means less valuable in OBP)

Ellsbury, Jacoby -$3
Bourn, Michael $0
Crawford, Carl -$4
Davis, Rajai -$3
Pierre, Juan -$5
Reyes, Jose $1
Morgan, Nyjer -$4
Andrus, Elvis -$1
Upton, B.J. $4
Figgins, Chone $4
Rollins, Jimmy -$1
Cabrera, Everth $1
Gomez, Carlos -$3
Kemp, Matt -$2
Ramirez, Hanley $2
Borbon, Julio -$5
Gardner, Brett $1
Roberts, Brian $3
Victorino, Shane -$2
Kinsler, Ian $1
Suzuki, Ichiro -$6
Bartlett, Jason -$1
McCutchen, Andrew $0
Podsednik, Scott -$4
Phillips, Brandon -$2

[david_hume]

Actually, my point was more to avoid the cheap speed as they will hurt you in OBP, whereas they don't hurt you as much in BA. I'll do the value comparison and check back in a second...

this seems accurate based on your later post. from a draft dynamics perspective, it also means that my opponents who are using BA-based values are more likely to take the cheap speed guys earlier, so they're less likely to be around at the point in the draft where i have them valued.