Auction Dollars in a Vacuum

[viper]

In a vacuum, the dollars provided in projections reflect a player's category contributions compared to the replacement lever player. Is the following true:

A $32 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $16 player
A $16 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $8 player
An $8 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $4 player
A $4 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $2 player

This is assuming the league has enough drafted players to eliminate scarcity considerations for positions other than catchers. This question is based more on a league where all players are drafted as UT and not any specific position.

Also, during the actual auction, any player valued under $4 is as likely not be a $1 plasyer as abouty any other player. Essentially, the final players go for whatever missing needs dictate.

[rotodog]

Dam Viper....So early in the morning before coffee and you come out with this question?

It is before my first coffee so I reserve the right to correct myself later.

I know you prefaced the questions with "in a vacuum"...But problem is I never drafted in a vacuum...Too dusty in the there..

But If you made me answer the queston right now, I would have to say all 4 of those statements are false. While I havent opened any projections and valuations to even gander at, I still cant see a 32 dollar player theoretical player having double the stats of a 16 dollar player. At least not when you use Replacement players theory...And something I feel that people miss in the whole thing is that a roster spot in itself has value. It is worth something before you stick anyone in there to man it...That is at minimum, replacement level. So when valuing a player, you are not basing it against a zero contribution that the roster spot has until you buy a player to put in that spot. You are basing it on how good that player is compared to either replacement level or the avg player...

Another thing. If you had an imaginary average player on a winning roster it might look like this depending on the format. .280 18 HR 12 Sbs 80 runs 75 RBI... To me this looks like a 15 dollar mixed league player... Does a 30 dollar player give you double that all the way around? I'm not sure, but if I could get double that for double the money, I would all day long...then throw In a 1 dollar player elsewhere..

So whats better in a vacuum? a 24 dollar player and a 1 dollar player or a 12 dollar player and a 13 dollar player? I dont have that answer, but I have played around with combos of players before an auction and many times the totals come out similar..Usually I do this with catchers and might take a Brian Mccann/Victor Martinez type and a 1 dollar catcher and total the projected stats.. Then I take Doumit type and a AJ Perz type and do the same thing....the results come out to similar totals when i do it...So i dont have an answer to which is better...

But I dont dwell to much on it for the simple fact that we dont play this game in a vacuum....And much like projected standings after a draft, the valuation process is using preseason projections of the whole player pool to derive its values. And we all know that those are flawed to begin with.... TO come up with an answer, I think one would need to take last season stats after they happen and then value them somehow to tell you what a players actual contribution was worth. but even that is flawed because they all assume that the players you are valuing will be active in someones lineup and not on a bench doing nothing.... and neither take into account using a replacement player for any missed time by a player in the calculation...

Ok....Time to go get coffee now...

[Todd Zola]

In a vacuum, the dollars provided in projections reflect a player's category contributions compared to the replacement lever player. Is the following true:

A $32 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $16 player
A $16 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $8 player
An $8 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $4 player
A $4 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $2 player

This is assuming the league has enough drafted players to eliminate scarcity considerations for positions other than catchers. This question is based more on a league where all players are drafted as UT and not any specific position.

We maybe talking semantics, but you can't double a player's stats and he is worth double the value. You need to account for replacement and marginal value that each player has to be worth $1.

I think it is fair to say that

Two $16 players provide the same category contribution as a $31 player and a $1 player
Two $8 players provide the same category contribution as a $15 player and a $1 player
etc.

Using a single stat, if the replacement is 3 and every stat over replacement is worth $1...

Player A produces 10 stats
Player B produces 17 stats

Player A produces 7 useful stats so his VIAV is $7
Player B produces 14 useful stats so his VIAV is $14

_______________________

Let's now do this....

Player C produces 4 stats
Player D produces 16 stats

Player C produces 1 useful stat so his VIAV is $1
Player D produces 13 useful stats so his VIAV is $13.

Player C + Player D gives $14 and 20 HR
2 Player A give $14 and 20 HR.

__________

Extending it to 2 pools

Replacement for red = 5
Replacement for green = 2

RED #1 gives 17 stats = 12 useful stats = $12
GREEN #1 gives 23 stats = 21 useful stats = $21

RED #2 gives 29 stats = 24 useful stats = $24
GREEN #2 gives 11 stats = 9 useful stats = $9

SET #1 = 40 stats @ $33
SET #2 = 40 stats @ $33



Also, during the actual auction, any player valued under $4 is as likely not be a $1 plasyer as abouty any other player. Essentially, the final players go for whatever missing needs dictate.[/quote]

[Todd Zola]

Also, during the actual auction, any player valued under $4 is as likely not be a $1 plasyer as abouty any other player. Essentially, the final players go for whatever missing needs dictate.

I don't think it is a matter of needs so much as it is a matter of how much we all think these end-gamers will play as well as how well we think they will play when they are on the field.

Also keep in mind that there will be considerably more players drafted at $1 than your typical valuation system assigns a value of $1.

This is due to auction dynamics and how each auction essentially turns into a draft at the end when everyone only has $1 per player.

[50 Desert Eagles]

In a vacuum, the dollars provided in projections reflect a player's category contributions compared to the replacement lever player. Is the following true:

A $32 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $16 player
A $16 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $8 player
An $8 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $4 player
A $4 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $2 player

THis is EXACTLY the same stratagy I was thinking when I did my auction draft last week(my stratagy got hammered by the powers too) well atleast I don't feel like such a knob seeing Viper have the same idea. I kept thinking, Why pay $50 for Pujols, when I got Figgins for 22 and Cantu for 15.....not realizing depending the size of league, that guys like Pence would be $5 at the end. Loney was a $1. Posada $2. So I could have landed this type of talent plus a Pujols or Hanley at $50 and most ofthe same guys in the middle. Oh well, I have learned!!!

[rotodog]

In a vacuum, the dollars provided in projections reflect a player's category contributions compared to the replacement lever player. Is the following true:

A $32 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $16 player
A $16 player provides twice the category contribution compared to an $8 player
An $8 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $4 player
A $4 player provides twice the category contribution compared to a $2 player

THis is EXACTLY the same stratagy I was thinking when I did my auction draft last week(my stratagy got hammered by the powers too) well atleast I don't feel like such a knob seeing Viper have the same idea. I kept thinking, Why pay $50 for Pujols, when I got Figgins for 22 and Cantu for 15.....not realizing depending the size of league, that guys like Pence would be $5 at the end. Loney was a $1. Posada $2. So I could have landed this type of talent plus a Pujols or Hanley at $50 and most ofthe same guys in the middle. Oh well, I have learned!!!

The problem is that Viper is talking theoretical and in a vacuum. A real draft isnt a Vacuum as you know...Especially in a 12 team league with no MI, no CI and one catcher... The fact that you can get Loney for a dollar in a real draft to add to whatever Stars you buy should bear it out... The difference between Cantu and Loney in that auction is 14 bucks. But on theoretical paper in a vacuum, the stat line is probably much closer and aside of a few extra HR that Cantu hits, I dont see a lot of difference between the two...
So Again I ask, why pay 15 for Cantu in a draft if you can buy Loney for 1 dollar and then shift that savings to buy More stars?

[viper]

I think that Todd's statement that a $31 & $1 equals the same value as a pair of $16 is what I was looking for. I presume that a $30 & two $3 also equals three $12s. I was just starting my first cup of coffee so I think I mis-worded the question.

I have three upcoming auctions and I typically bid in a stars and scrubs mode for hitters but, for reasons best understood by psychoanalyst, I go more for a series middle valued pitchers. In my leagues, there always seems to be value at the ends plus several owners tend to hold dollars early causing the $12 players to get into small bidding wars and therefore going for $15+.

My leagues have very few MRs drafted - just SPs and closers. It's probably because IP replace Ks as a category but also has an 1100 IP requirement. And two teams often punt saves. Middle closers go cheap but all SPs go high.

[Todd Zola]

I say we make VIAV an industry term like VORP, WAR, RAR, etc.

WHO'S WITH ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[rotodog]

I say we make VIAV an industry term like VORP, WAR, RAR, etc.

WHO'S WITH ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you can get fangraphs and BP to use it, then we may be onto something....I am with you! And from now on whenever I am referring to Value In A Vacuum, i will be using your new acronym . VIAV

[50 Desert Eagles]

VIAV SUCKS!!!! Come on, that was funny...right? it's been a long week!!! ok ok....

[rotodog]

I know you were joking LDE..( your new username. L= Roman numeral 50 and its easier to type) But since we are usually talking about projected value in the preseason when we talk about value, I say we slightly modify Todd's newest acronym to PVIAV.......Projected Value In A Vacuum...... Its time to join the revolution.

[AllstonRockCity]

I presume that a $30 & two $3 also equals three $12s.

Which reminds me of some words of wisdom from a man much smarter than myself.

If you can't get yourself a 10, then the least you can do is get yourself five 2's.