5x5 (with OBP instead of AVG), 12 teams, NL only, 23 active players (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, UT, 10 P), 17 reserve players. The league has existed for about 15 years but we lost a couple owners and ended up resetting the league before last year, so inflation is relatively low compared to most keeper leagues. (btw, what's the difference between a "keeper" and a "dynasty" league?) Because the reserve lists are so deep, you can generally assume that there are no useful hitters available for pickup during the season unless they're unowned minor leaguers who got called up.
I was pretty much the only team that went into last year having decided to "rebuild" and went a bit more aggressively for rookies, injured players, etc. and stars that I could trade for possible keepers at midseason. As such, most people don't have much of a keeper list compared to me, and I'm definitely trying to win this year.
my keeper options (I can keep up to 13 major leaguers and 4 minor leaguers, defined as "in the minors on opening day"; minor leaguers' salaries don't count against the $260 auction budget):
Cristian Guzman $9
Everth Cabrera $1
Dexter Fowler $10
Reed Johnson $1
Nyjer Morgan $2
Colby Rasmus $5
Drew Stubbs $5
Joe Blanton $3
Johnny Cueto $12
Tim Hudson $3
Chad Qualls $15
Tim Stauffer $1
Randy Wells $2
Jordan Zimmermann $4
Freddie Freeman $2
Matt Dominguez $5
Josh Vitters $10
Stephen Strasburg $10
questions:
is it worth keeping Guzman, Cueto or Qualls? Reed Johnson and Tim Stauffer are almost certainly gone, planning to keep everyone else.
is it worth keeping Zimmermann, which would require taking an active pitcher in the reserve rounds (some random middle reliever probably) and activating him immediately, just in hopes that he's worth $4 in 2011?
what if anything should I be willing to offer for Jason Heyward at $10?
couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
since you are indeed rebuilding, i would hang onto heyward barring some fascination from a league mate who wants to overspend. but, i would expect a couple of pretty good players at this point. of course, once the season begins, all bets are off until heyward establishes himself.
i would let zimmerman go. he won't be worth anything this year, and potentially even 2011 will largely be recovery, and you should be able to get him back for less (or force someone else to overpay).
and, if you are figuring another year to rebuild, probably swapping guzman and letting go of qualls is a good way to go by my reckoning.
rebuilding is tough. but, it is also a lot of fun.
good luck. hope this helps.
i would let zimmerman go. he won't be worth anything this year, and potentially even 2011 will largely be recovery, and you should be able to get him back for less (or force someone else to overpay).
and, if you are figuring another year to rebuild, probably swapping guzman and letting go of qualls is a good way to go by my reckoning.
rebuilding is tough. but, it is also a lot of fun.
good luck. hope this helps.
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rotodog
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
I think LAwr misread your intent to compete this year... But your assessments are pretty spot on.mjlewis wrote: Cristian Guzman $9
Everth Cabrera $1
Dexter Fowler $10
Reed Johnson $1
Nyjer Morgan $2
Colby Rasmus $5
Drew Stubbs $5
Joe Blanton $3
Johnny Cueto $12
Tim Hudson $3
Chad Qualls $15
Tim Stauffer $1
Randy Wells $2
Jordan Zimmermann $4
Freddie Freeman $2
Matt Dominguez $5
Josh Vitters $10
Stephen Strasburg $10
questions:
is it worth keeping Guzman, Cueto or Qualls? Reed Johnson and Tim Stauffer are almost certainly gone, planning to keep everyone else.
is it worth keeping Zimmermann, which would require taking an active pitcher in the reserve rounds (some random middle reliever probably) and activating him immediately, just in hopes that he's worth $4 in 2011?
what if anything should I be willing to offer for Jason Heyward at $10?
One question. How long can you keep players at there salaries? You mentioned keeping Zimmerman at 4. Will he be 4 next year? Do you think someone will pay 4 this year?
I personally love Zimmerman...And I snagged him in the reserve rounds of an NL auction last night at zero dollars. But your bench is deeper than most.
As far as you questions go. Deciding on keeping certain players in deep leagues like this that have liberal keepr rules and plenty of keepers to keep will kind of guide you. Is Guzman going to produce maybe 9 bucks in an NL league? Probably. Will the league pay 9 bucks for him? I guess it depends on how many players others keep and what is available..
So keep him or toss him back depending on your experience with the league..I wouldnt have a problem with either if there was a good reason for it.
As far as Jonny Cueto goes, Id toss him back at this point....Chad Qualls I would probably keep as many people tend to keep closers in deep NL only leagues usually... Some cheap, some not.. But the thing you can be assured is that whatever closers are available will cost 15 bucks + I think... Add to the inflation on closers and keep qualls ... But use your experience in the league to help make the decisons. Do closers usually get kept? are there few good options on draft day? do they go for much more than they should?
As far as Heyward goes....You want to know what you can offer to someone for him right now? In an NL keeper league? I would say offer as little as possible, but in reality, you will have to offer 2/3 of your team to even get a guy to talk to you.....Unless this guy has been living in a cave for 4 months, his value is so high and expectations are so high, I doubt you can budge a guy in a deep keeper league like this... Dont let it stop you from offering and begging, because you cant assume he wont trade him, but dont get excited about owning him either....
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
yes, maybe I was a little unclear. I was rebuilding last year (well, as much as someone can rebuild in the first year of a keeper league, but more on that below) and trying to win this year.
For any of the listed players, I can either keep them for 2011 at the same price or give them a long term contract for an additional $5 per year added. So, for example, I can either have Stubbs at $5 for this year and next, then lose him, or I can have him this year at $5 and the next two years at $10, etc.
I can definitely get Zimmermann back at $10 during the reserve rounds of our draft and maybe at $5.
Another note is that most teams have maybe 3-5 decent keepers. Here's the roster of the team that finished in 6th, for example:
Brian McCann $20
Adam LaRoche $24
Casey Blake $10
Dan Uggla $21
Tony Gwynn Jr. $10
Matt Kemp $30
Shane Victorino $25
Will Venable $10
Matt Cain $22
Francisco Cordero $16
Carlos Marmol $17
Jason Marquis $10
Franklin Morales $2
Bud Norris $5
Jonathan Sanchez $7
Tim Alderson $5
Pedro Alvarez $10
So I can't imagine that he's going to keep a ton of players out of that, or if he does he's certainly not getting much profit out of it. But who knows.
I think I do need to keep Qualls and probably not Guzman or Cueto. And I doubt I can get Heyward for him, but I'm trying to talk myself into thinking I can give up a super-underpriced Morgan or something like that... but it's probably not worth giving up too much more.
As for the rebuilding thing: I think there's a big advantage to going against the grain even in the first year of the league. Our prize money is paid out as 50% to first, 25% to second, 15% to third, 10% to fourth. So coming in last one year and winning the next is just as good as coming in second two years in a row. Deciding before the very first auction that you're the only person playing for next year means that you can (a) overspend on a couple stars with the intent of flipping them at midseason, (b) take a bunch of flyers on rookies or guys who are going to miss most of the season (Tim Hudson last year, Volquez or Zimmermann this year), (c) actively flip players on the FAAB list without worrying that you're cutting relevant people, and (d) be the first person making dump trades so you can get the best prospects (I traded for Morgan, Cabrera, Strasburg, and Cueto last year -- although that was before Cueto went down the toilet).
- Mike
For any of the listed players, I can either keep them for 2011 at the same price or give them a long term contract for an additional $5 per year added. So, for example, I can either have Stubbs at $5 for this year and next, then lose him, or I can have him this year at $5 and the next two years at $10, etc.
I can definitely get Zimmermann back at $10 during the reserve rounds of our draft and maybe at $5.
Another note is that most teams have maybe 3-5 decent keepers. Here's the roster of the team that finished in 6th, for example:
Brian McCann $20
Adam LaRoche $24
Casey Blake $10
Dan Uggla $21
Tony Gwynn Jr. $10
Matt Kemp $30
Shane Victorino $25
Will Venable $10
Matt Cain $22
Francisco Cordero $16
Carlos Marmol $17
Jason Marquis $10
Franklin Morales $2
Bud Norris $5
Jonathan Sanchez $7
Tim Alderson $5
Pedro Alvarez $10
So I can't imagine that he's going to keep a ton of players out of that, or if he does he's certainly not getting much profit out of it. But who knows.
I think I do need to keep Qualls and probably not Guzman or Cueto. And I doubt I can get Heyward for him, but I'm trying to talk myself into thinking I can give up a super-underpriced Morgan or something like that... but it's probably not worth giving up too much more.
As for the rebuilding thing: I think there's a big advantage to going against the grain even in the first year of the league. Our prize money is paid out as 50% to first, 25% to second, 15% to third, 10% to fourth. So coming in last one year and winning the next is just as good as coming in second two years in a row. Deciding before the very first auction that you're the only person playing for next year means that you can (a) overspend on a couple stars with the intent of flipping them at midseason, (b) take a bunch of flyers on rookies or guys who are going to miss most of the season (Tim Hudson last year, Volquez or Zimmermann this year), (c) actively flip players on the FAAB list without worrying that you're cutting relevant people, and (d) be the first person making dump trades so you can get the best prospects (I traded for Morgan, Cabrera, Strasburg, and Cueto last year -- although that was before Cueto went down the toilet).
- Mike
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rotodog
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
One piece of advice. throw the word profit out of your vocabulary when making keeper decisons in a deep Nl only league...mjlewis wrote: Brian McCann $20
Adam LaRoche $24
Casey Blake $10
Dan Uggla $21
Tony Gwynn Jr. $10
Matt Kemp $30
Shane Victorino $25
Will Venable $10
Matt Cain $22
Francisco Cordero $16
Carlos Marmol $17
Jason Marquis $10
Franklin Morales $2
Bud Norris $5
Jonathan Sanchez $7
Tim Alderson $5
Pedro Alvarez $10
- Mike
Profit is about 4 places on the totem in making keeper decisons in this format. there are other more important considerations to think about.
In a NL deep keeper with up to 13 keeps and a minors list/reserve list, you should assume a team like this will keep a number of these players. At this point I just cant tell how much will be availbale in the draft...
I realize this isnt your team, but if it were mine, I would consider keeping:
Mccan
kemo
Victorino
F Molrales
jonny O' Sanchez.
and the free minor leaguers..
If i felt 3b was going to be thin, i would consider blake too...
So I guess you should try to picture what me available in the draft. Having all those nice keepers at low cost is meaningless if you dont have nough quality players to spend it on..The whole purpose of owning cheap keepers is to be able to buy studs at other positions...
So dont assume a roster like that above littered with full priced players wont be kept...
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
okay, that kind of leads into another question...
I know that Holliday, Halladay, Bay, Rollins, Wright, and Beltran will be in the auction, but I don't know how many other premium players will be. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every decent 1B is kept, which leaves Aubrey Huff as about the best one available (I think Berkman might get dropped but that could be it). So should I be willing to trade Nyjer Morgan at $2 for Albert Pujols at $43 and give up that "profit" just so I can make sure I don't get left out on useful first basemen?
- Mike
I know that Holliday, Halladay, Bay, Rollins, Wright, and Beltran will be in the auction, but I don't know how many other premium players will be. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every decent 1B is kept, which leaves Aubrey Huff as about the best one available (I think Berkman might get dropped but that could be it). So should I be willing to trade Nyjer Morgan at $2 for Albert Pujols at $43 and give up that "profit" just so I can make sure I don't get left out on useful first basemen?
- Mike
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rotodog
Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
Pujols at 43 for nyger morgan at 2? Me personally, i would stop what I was doing right now and make that trade if it were available.
here is why.
1.With the team you have right now, nyger can go. You have cheap speed options right now in E cabrera, Dexter and stubbs..Add in Colby rasmus has some sneaky speed too.... Nyger morgan is overkill....He is very expendable to your team.
2. depending on how long you can keep Pujols, at 43 bucks right now, he is a steal in a deep, NL only league with lots of keepers.... I think from your earlier post you mentioned he will be 43 this year and maybe the next unless you extend him...
Also remember that inflation wwas tame last year and will be little tamer than normal this season because of the redraft last year. That wont be the case next year and the year after.. In a deep NL league like this, once the rosters mature and inflation sets in again, Pujols would go for 55-60 bucks on the open market on draft day..
So when you see a full priced Pujols at 43, think of him as underpriced by 12-17 bucks next season and in future seasons....
With the AL converts available this season, you know that some studs will be around to buy. If the league inflation doesnt rear its head this season, I would consider buying some of them because once inflation sets in next year and the year after that, they will look like bargains... Your team is cheap already now but lacks power..I would be buying reliable power or reliable studs at anywhere near uninflated full prices this year..
Just my take. I know many owners have a hard time trading cheap profit for what appears to be a full priced stud, but If you have to pay 43 bucks, Pujols is by far the best... Think off all the things that Pujols does for you... he allows you to roster some .250 power hitters because of his BA... he swipes a few bags... he hits lots of HR...RBis in bunches...
Run, and run real fast to the phone and make that deal!!
here is why.
1.With the team you have right now, nyger can go. You have cheap speed options right now in E cabrera, Dexter and stubbs..Add in Colby rasmus has some sneaky speed too.... Nyger morgan is overkill....He is very expendable to your team.
2. depending on how long you can keep Pujols, at 43 bucks right now, he is a steal in a deep, NL only league with lots of keepers.... I think from your earlier post you mentioned he will be 43 this year and maybe the next unless you extend him...
Also remember that inflation wwas tame last year and will be little tamer than normal this season because of the redraft last year. That wont be the case next year and the year after.. In a deep NL league like this, once the rosters mature and inflation sets in again, Pujols would go for 55-60 bucks on the open market on draft day..
So when you see a full priced Pujols at 43, think of him as underpriced by 12-17 bucks next season and in future seasons....
With the AL converts available this season, you know that some studs will be around to buy. If the league inflation doesnt rear its head this season, I would consider buying some of them because once inflation sets in next year and the year after that, they will look like bargains... Your team is cheap already now but lacks power..I would be buying reliable power or reliable studs at anywhere near uninflated full prices this year..
Just my take. I know many owners have a hard time trading cheap profit for what appears to be a full priced stud, but If you have to pay 43 bucks, Pujols is by far the best... Think off all the things that Pujols does for you... he allows you to roster some .250 power hitters because of his BA... he swipes a few bags... he hits lots of HR...RBis in bunches...
Run, and run real fast to the phone and make that deal!!