10 team AL-only SS Pool

[Kelly_Leak]

Anyone notice how dreadful the AL SS pool is this year?

I am contemplating trying to draft two (SS and MI) of Jeter, Peralta, Betancourt, or Young (Aviles is being kept) if the price is fairly reasonable and leaving the rest of the league scrambling for all the rest. The timing of each player being called out in auction and the price obviously have a lot to do with this strategy.

Question is has anyone tried anything similar in past? Last year I had BJ Upton, Roberts, and Cano on my team, but 2B was not as terrible as SS is this year.

[Todd Zola]

I am presenting the "Look at the 2009 Player Pool" slide at the upcoming First Pitch Forum Series. I don't think I am giving too much away when I say....

MIDDLE INFIELD -- In all formats, 2B is weak, but very deep with lots of end-gamers as a bunch of players have multiple eligibility including 2B. If you can put a decent SS at MI, you can force someone else into taking a weak 2B at MI.

[rotodog]

I have made a living with strategies like this....Each year , especially in keeper leagues, there are some postions that just are not deep or muddled with a bunch of players all stuck together with no stand outs...

YES, by all means. I would be a buyer of the Best/first SS that gets named this year...Peralta...bring em out early.maybe my first pick. then i would buy the one of the next two brought out. Most likely the other top guys left...The whole idea is before anyone knows what happened, you own 2 and you just created scarcity and everyone will reach....

If you own one top SS, I would toss out an Avilles type as soon as I had a chance...I swear that others will pay as much for half a scrub as you paid for Peralta (or who ever) That my friend is called controlling the draft..

It also works in reversee..If a lot of simialr value is locked up in an area or position, keep tossing the best off the lot and not buying..fill the other rosters with full priced players and wait your turn for the cheaper version in the same value range...

Thats how you control the draft...It works!

[drapes]

OK - I'm not one who likes to highjack a thread, but this is relevant to the current discussion.

10 Team AL only league - OBP replaces runs...

Along with SS, 3B is relatively thin this year.

Anybody feel that I'm out-thinking myself by doing the following?

Keep Peralta at $18.
Top Chris Davis (meaning keep him for $1 over the winning bid) Figure I'll try to toss him out early to get a deal before A-Rod and Miggy hit the floor.
Keep Alex Gordon at $23.

Maybe keep Bartlett at $12.

That would severely inflate the already inflated prices of A-Rod and Cabrera ($47 and $40 respectively last year), as Youkilis, Longoria and Figgins will all be kept. And it would inflate the prices of Jeter, Young and Avilles, none of whom I would need to get in on with Peralta and Bartlett.

That should take a significant chunk of money off the table allowing me to get bargains in the OF and Pitching.

Is that a strategy that makes sense?

[cwk1963]

Just a thought...Assume Arod and Cabrera go well inflated as does Jeter, Young and Aviles. At most that would be 6 out of 10 teams (counting you). If I was one of the remaining 4 teams, I wouldn't overspend on a 3B or SS knowing I've already been shut out. I would instead shift my money to the top OF and pitchers you're talking about getting a bargain on and take that undesirable 3B and SS at their low value. That would put me at an advantage vs you in that I didn't keep Peralta, Gordon, Davis and Bartlett at somewhat inflated prices. Not saying that will happen with all the other teams but it's something to consider and if it does, what's your fall back plan(s)? Does this make sense?

[drapes]

Just a thought...Assume Arod and Cabrera go well inflated as does Jeter, Young and Aviles. At most that would be 6 out of 10 teams (counting you). If I was one of the remaining 4 teams, I wouldn't overspend on a 3B or SS knowing I've already been shut out. I would instead shift my money to the top OF and pitchers you're talking about getting a bargain on and take that undesirable 3B and SS at their low value. That would put me at an advantage vs you in that I didn't keep Peralta, Gordon, Davis and Bartlett at somewhat inflated prices. Not saying that will happen with all the other teams but it's something to consider and if it does, what's your fall back plan(s)? Does this make sense?

Perfect sense. That's why I come here.

I also just realized that there are a HUGE amount of players being kept this year, so the pickings might be slim all around. Might be nice to have that production in the bag. Also, I will be keeping Burnett and Kazmir, leaving CC, Beckett and Dice as the few difference makers in the auction in terms of SP... Halladay, Shields, Lackey, Liriano, Lee, Duchsherer, Greinke, Santana, Joba, Felix, Slowey, Lester, Baker, Danks, Weaver, Morrow, Verlander and Price will all be kept.

In the OF Sizemore, Crawford, Rios, Upton, Markakis, Hamilton, Granderson, Elsbury, Quentin, Delmon Young and Adam Jones will all be kept as well.


This is gonna be an insane auction. Thoughts anyone? How would you approach it?

[cwk1963]

A lot is going to depend on how inflated or deflated the keepers are. Either way, a lot of the top talent obviously will be gone which means a lot of the middling tiers will be inflated. I'd grab as many of those as I could.

[Tampa Bob]

You think a guy like Bartlett is inflated now think what he'll go for when there are 2 teams that realize there is only one SS that won't kill them. Last year we had 2 guys who realized they had neglected 3B and before you could say "Boo", Hank Blalock went for $30 and the guy that got him was happy he did.

Admittedly my league allows no free moves so when the next guy down from Blalock is Ramon Vazquez, Blalock can go pretty high.

The key is, while you won't be free to cherry pick after you pull money from the board you WILL hamstring a few guys.

[da_big_kid_94]

Last year we had 2 guys who realized they had neglected 3B and before you could say "Boo", Hank Blalock went for $30 and the guy that got him was happy he did.

Now THERE is an interesting line, Bob. I'm sure he was happy he got Blalock because I assume what was left wasn't ... let's say ... top echelon talent? And the owner may have been very happy on auction day - but was he so happy when he found out what his 30 units bought him? Moreso, how happy was he when he found out what spending those 30 units on Blalock denied him from getting? I don't know who was the guy he DIDN'T get - but it raises the possibility he may have better off with THAT guy and a few extra units elsewhere rather than spending them on Blalock.

Hence - the danger of trying to get the LAST guy on the shelf can be even worse than the road less traveled here. Throwing units at a guy you didn't really want in the first place just because he's the "last best option" doesn't mean it's a good thing if it comes at the expense of acquiring other talent.

[roche]

how happy was he when he found out what spending those 30 units on Blalock denied him from getting? I don't know who was the guy he DIDN'T get -but it raises the possibility he may have better off with THAT guy and a few extra units elsewhere rather than spending them on Blalock.

Agree whole-heartedly with this. I've never understood why people chase positions in an auction. The beauty of an auction is that you can choose where to spend your budget.
Stuck with a $1 3B? Buy yourself an extra stud OF. Missed out on that OF? Buy yourself a nice closer. Buy two! How does wasting money on the "last best player" at a position help your roster?

[drapes]

Agree whole-heartedly with this. I've never understood why people chase positions in an auction. The beauty of an auction is that you can choose where to spend your budget.
Stuck with a $1 3B? Buy yourself an extra stud OF. Missed out on that OF? Buy yourself a nice closer. Buy two! How does wasting money on the "last best player" at a position help your roster?

Sure. Absolutely... so what happens when there are ONLY 3 Stud Closers, ONLY 3-5 stud OF... ONLY two stud Starters... ONLY two stud SS, ONLY 1 stud 1B, NO stud C, or 2B?

Hey I'm all about buying the best value too, but when you're looking at maybe 13 top shelf players TO BEGIN WITH, something's gonna have to give somewhere... maybe that's calling Xavier Nady a stud to make you feel better about your spending. Like I said before, this year is a very odd year in terms of the player pool due to the high volume of protected players. It's an anomaly, but one that I still have to try to compete in.

[da_big_kid_94]

Agree whole-heartedly with this. I've never understood why people chase positions in an auction. The beauty of an auction is that you can choose where to spend your budget.
Stuck with a $1 3B? Buy yourself an extra stud OF. Missed out on that OF? Buy yourself a nice closer. Buy two! How does wasting money on the "last best player" at a position help your roster?

Sure. Absolutely... so what happens when there are ONLY 3 Stud Closers, ONLY 3-5 stud OF... ONLY two stud Starters... ONLY two stud SS, ONLY 1 stud 1B, NO stud C, or 2B?

Then, I would most likely say to that fellow; "Just what are you waiting for ... the building to collapse around you and a gumdrop to fall in your mouth?" If you know the value isn't going to be there later on in the auction, what the hell are you waiting for ...to spend 30 units on Hank Blalock just because you have them?

I don't think roche is advocating in what ORDER you should pick these guys up in. The fact that someone HAS 30 units to spend on a 3B late in an auction speaks wonders - what exactly does someone pass on in order to have 30 units to bid on a 3B when all but one other team has one. Did you let Pappy go at 35 because you felt you couldn't say 36? Hindsight may be 20/20 - I have my own war story about bidding up the last player at a position (I even have it posted on the league web site) .... and the player was Sean Berry, for chrissakes ...and I was bidding against my old man, no less! But, if you're down to chasing a position, chances are you let some names fly by you that you could have had for a few bucks more.

[drapes]

Kid -

You're addressing an issue I never really raised. I'm not necessarily suggesting that I won't bid early on good value. My question was should I consider keeping Gordon (23) and Bartlett (12) due to the relative lack of depth overall in the player pool?

I'm currently keeping Mauer (22), Peralta (18), Burnett (20) and Kazmir (19).

[da_big_kid_94]

Kid -

You're addressing an issue I never really raised. I'm not necessarily suggesting that I won't bid early on good value. My question was should I consider keeping Gordon (23) and Bartlett (12) due to the relative lack of depth overall in the player pool?

I'm currently keeping Mauer (22), Peralta (18), Burnett (20) and Kazmir (19).

See, in your situation, I don't keep Mauer and I don't keep Gordon. There are way too many rumblings about Mauer's progress towards the season to ignore them. As for Gordon, he's a perfect example of all this. He's yet to produce 23 units worth of value. He is PART of that lack of depth, not a response to it. If you were not keeping him, would you be afraid he'd go for more than 23? If he does, substitute the name Hank Blalock for Alex Gordon in this thread and wish his new owner well.

I'm not saying nor do I mean to imply you won't bid early on good value ... I'm simply responding to your scenario of what if there's only a limited amount of value in the overall pool. That means bid early and often rather than waiting around and spending units on guys not worth it just because you have them.

[drapes]

Kid -

You're addressing an issue I never really raised. I'm not necessarily suggesting that I won't bid early on good value. My question was should I consider keeping Gordon (23) and Bartlett (12) due to the relative lack of depth overall in the player pool?

I'm currently keeping Mauer (22), Peralta (18), Burnett (20) and Kazmir (19).

See, in your situation, I don't keep Mauer and I don't keep Gordon. There are way too many rumblings about Mauer's progress towards the season to ignore them. As for Gordon, he's a perfect example of all this. He's yet to produce 23 units worth of value. He is PART of that lack of depth, not a response to it. If you were not keeping him, would you be afraid he'd go for more than 23? If he does, substitute the name Hank Blalock for Alex Gordon in this thread and wish his new owner well.

I'm not saying nor do I mean to imply you won't bid early on good value ... I'm simply responding to your scenario of what if there's only a limited amount of value in the overall pool. That means bid early and often rather than waiting around and spending units on guys not worth it just because you have them.

Great point regarding Gordon. I am one of the very few who still believe he turns the corner, but even if he does, he still doesn't warrant that price.

As for Mauer, I share the concern regarding his health to a degree, but our league is an OBP league, and he's money in that scenario. I've finished 1st and 2nd the last two years running, due largely in part to his high level of consistent production at a position that many in the league essentially punt. I'll monitor his progress up until the freeze deadline, but he's one guy I'd probably hold onto barring news of major setbacks.

[da_big_kid_94]

I can understand you wanting to keep Mauer .... you feel his risk assessment fits in with your parameters - it's why we play the game.

As for Gordon, here's one other thing to contemplate. He has no position flexibility anymore with the moves the Royals made in the off season. he's their 3b ...period. If he founders at 3rd, what then. No chance at the OF, Jacobs at first locks Butler in at DH. Lot of pressure for him to do the job at 3rd, because, if he can't, he has to wait for someone else to fail ...and that wait could take place at Triple AAA.