Help with final keeper please!

[burke]

Can you let me know which of the below you would recommend as a keeper for my 5x5 14 team mixed league. I have all my other keepers decided... This league has a DH, 3 bench slots and daily moves.

C. Buchholz $9
J. Lackey $17
Jair Jurrjens $16
Jered Weaver $14
R. Dempster $16
H. Kendrick $15

Here are keepers...

D. Pedroia 10
J. Lopez 7
R. Braun 11
J. Bruce 14
D. Span 11
J. Hayward 4
J. Smoak 4
R. Zimmerman 28
F. Fransisco 16
R. Soriano 6
J. Shields 10


Thanks...

[lawr]

i would be inclined to keep lackey, all things considered. that gives you two starters going in, and lackey can be dominant and is on a solid team.

like jurrjens, but injury risk, and buchholtz not quite steady enough. and, like kendrick, but you have dped and can probably get him back for that price (or force someone to pay more for him). but, between dped and lopez you have the middle pretty well covered.

[Captain Hook]

Lackey for me

[cwk1963]

Weaver for me. I've been a Lackey owner for a number of years now and aren't sold on him in the AL East.

[da_big_kid_94]

I would go Jurrjens myself. I like him in Atlanta, Lackey has been hurt as well and seeing the Green Monster for 81 games and a possible few starts in the Bronx knocks him down a peg or 2. But I see something odd here which may make me change my answer - what does pitching go for in your league - actually what is your cap and can players be acquired in ways other than auction? I see no pitchers approaching $20, guys like Braun and Pedoria at less than $15 ... and Ryan Zimmerman at $28!?!?!?

[Todd Zola]

What it looks to me is that this is a perpetual keeper league that gives a very small salary bump to the players and has no in-season salary cap so a few years ago, some nut-case decided his middling keeper list could not compete, so he did the radical move of buying all the best players for a whopping price and filled in with all prospects at $1 or $2 with the idea of dealing the studs for keepers and hitting on a few of the prospects as well. The long-term objective being to have a keeper list of hitters that all he needed to do was buy $1 hitters at the auction to have enough stats going in to win all the hitting categories while leaving himself enough money to buy sufficient pitching to compete. Then over time, I bet others started using the reserve round as a de-facto minors list, accounting for the cheap Braun, Heyward, Smoak, etc., leading to insane inflation so Zimmerman at 28 is a solid freeze.

Signed,

The Nut-Case

[da_big_kid_94]

What it looks to me is that this is a perpetual keeper league that gives a very small salary bump to the players and has no in-season salary cap so a few years ago, some nut-case decided his middling keeper list could not compete, so he did the radical move of buying all the best players for a whopping price and filled in with all prospects at $1 or $2 with the idea of dealing the studs for keepers and hitting on a few of the prospects as well. The long-term objective being to have a keeper list of hitters that all he needed to do was buy $1 hitters at the auction to have enough stats going in to win all the hitting categories while leaving himself enough money to buy sufficient pitching to compete. Then over time, I bet others started using the reserve round as a de-facto minors list, accounting for the cheap Braun, Heyward, Smoak, etc., leading to insane inflation so Zimmerman at 28 is a solid freeze.

Signed,

The Nut-Case

I can see your point ... IF it turns out they have something like a $180 cap. But if this is standard $260? Eh...maybe not so much. He has quite of list of talent there - but with no one remotely approaching Zimmerman's salary, I'd want to know what the rest of the league parameters/guidelines are before committing to him at that salary.

[Todd Zola]

Zimmerman would EASILY go into the 40s in this league, maybe 50s.

We have the same group of usual suspects available year after year because of the odd nature. Abreu, Vlad, Manny and Chipper always are the 4 best hitters. And because they go for such an inflated price, they get thrown back in every year. This is why I wanted a keeper list so solid that replacement level hitters would be enough for me to rule the offense. I have Butler, Phillips, Utley, Rollins, Wright, Kemp, Werth, Choo, Carlos Lee and Garrett Jones for $200. I don't need another steal and will get the rest of what I need with $1 C (we use only 1) $1 OF and $1 UT. ON PAPER, of course. I won't buy a closer at the auction and will still finish mid pack in saves as it is first come first serve with daily moves.

I stream hitters more on Monday and Thursday than most others which will also help my offense.

I'll have $57 for pitching which buys me 3 of the above (or similar) and a bunch of $1 guys, likely high-K middle relievers. The daily FCFS opens up streaming which I will do.

This is fundamentally a dynasty league for hitters and a keeper league for pitchers.

Everything seems so cool ON PAPER. We'll see how it plays out ON THE FIELD.

[AllstonRockCity]

While he may not be the sexiest pick of the group, I strongly believe that Dempster will give you the best ratio and K combination of any of those starters, who are all within a buck of each other, making salary a non-factor.

[rotodog]

If one were to ask me, I would honestly take Dempster.... He has a 2 year record of health and success behind him and feel he is the safest combo of risk/reward/reliabilty/price compared to the rest..

But if it were me, and at the risk of being exposed, I would consider trading Zimmerman to an owner with a need for a 3b upgrade and slide Jose Lopez over to third and keep the Kendrick/Pedroia MI combo..

I also get the impression SS might be thin in this league after keepers are announced and you might want that little extra money you get by trading Zimmerman to be sure to acquire a Good SS to with the solid 2b/MI combo.....

Or is it possible that someone has a Super Solid, strike throwing , Big Upside pitcher that is throwing lights out this spring on there roster for under ten bucks that they might trade? I might add one of these type pitchers to my staff instead of the guys above...

In all honesty though, If I were to keep one of the pitchers above at those prices, it would be Dempster because the others each have a wart or two in there current situations...

[rotodog]

Zimmerman would EASILY go into the 40s in this league, maybe 50s.

We have the same group of usual suspects available year after year because of the odd nature. Abreu, Vlad, Manny and Chipper always are the 4 best hitters. And because they go for such an inflated price, they get thrown back in every year. This is why I wanted a keeper list so solid that replacement level hitters would be enough for me to rule the offense. I have Butler, Phillips, Utley, Rollins, Wright, Kemp, Werth, Choo, Carlos Lee and Garrett Jones for $200. I don't need another steal and will get the rest of what I need with $1 C (we use only 1) $1 OF and $1 UT. ON PAPER, of course. I won't buy a closer at the auction and will still finish mid pack in saves as it is first come first serve with daily moves.

I stream hitters more on Monday and Thursday than most others which will also help my offense.

I'll have $57 for pitching which buys me 3 of the above (or similar) and a bunch of $1 guys, likely high-K middle relievers. The daily FCFS opens up streaming which I will do.

This is fundamentally a dynasty league for hitters and a keeper league for pitchers.

Everything seems so cool ON PAPER. We'll see how it plays out ON THE FIELD.

Wow.... I hope someone from the league doesnt read this and try to thwart your strategy...

But in another post, it sounded like you detailed the perfect winning plan for anyone building a roster in this type of league....SOunds like good advice!

[Todd Zola]

Jokes aside, it is unthwartable.

Aside from the obvious need for the hitters to hit like I expect, the season will depend upon my ability to put together ample pitching points without using anything better than, say, I don't know, Kevin Slowey?

[rotodog]

Jokes aside, it is unthwartable.

Aside from the obvious need for the hitters to hit like I expect, the season will depend upon my ability to put together ample pitching points without using anything better than, say, I don't know, Kevin Slowey?

While I agree with good health that your plan sounds unthwartable, you may have to tone down your price enforcing ways of the past....

Because all it takes is an owner to realize what you need, what you want, and what you dont need/want, straight from the pages of your playbook. Add In the fact that there has to be someone in the same league using similar projections to you and similar valuations. Then factor in that you are a smart guy and because you are a respected expert in this field, you often write stories and post opinions on players you are very high on for anyone in the league to read

And then if a smart owner sees you price enforcing on commodities that you do not want/need as your strategy has already been laid out, an owner in this type of league could easily stick you with a player you didnt want to buy if you get caught enforcing .It might alter your plan...

So I would not expect you to be enforcing Closers, Catchers , OFers and any player that has value tied to Stolen bases...because you might just get stuck spending your bidding dollars on something you do not need... You are also exposed to any owners that realize you are looking for 2-3 of the Mid tier pitching options, and price enforcing them...Especially as the pool is dwindling and you still need a couple.... but I think you are smart enough to not bid on anything that isnt a mid tier SP, or you would be at risk of wasting your very precious and few dollars on players you do not need to win....

It also hinges on the hope that some other owners are not employing the same strategy to manage the pitching staff. While I realize that High k/9 relievers are a dime dozen, all it takes is 1-2 more owners using a similar strategy and the BEST $1-2 high K Relievers will go for more than the buck you may have thought... Especially if any of those valuable High K relievers have any chance of sniffing saves.... If most of the valuable, streaming , High K , saves sniffing relievers are bought up by owners employing a similar strategy, then the Waiver wire might not contain many Saves this year...

The good thing is that it sounds like an active trading league, so any deficiencies can be made up via trade and WW...

But on the surface, it seems like a loaded team and a very sound plan.....You should be a winner this year!

[Todd Zola]

Hard to price enforce when I want 3 $1 hitters

If everyone is willing to overpay for the Ted Lilly's, Aaron Harang's, Kevin Correia's to prevent me from getting 3, more power to them.

As for using similar projections, in a league with daily moves, throw pitching projections out the window. I could care less about Jonathan Sanchez when he goes to Coors or Gil Meche when he faces the Yankees on the road.

And with respect to $1 MR, I'll leave myself 6 spots for $6 and take the last 6 guys of the auction for all I care.

Next?

[rotodog]

Hard to price enforce when I want 3 $1 hitters

If everyone is willing to overpay for the Ted Lilly's, Aaron Harang's, Kevin Correia's to prevent me from getting 3, more power to them.

As for using similar projections, in a league with daily moves, throw pitching projections out the window. I could care less about Jonathan Sanchez when he goes to Coors or Gil Meche when he faces the Yankees on the road.

And with respect to $1 MR, I'll leave myself 6 spots for $6 and take the last 6 guys of the auction for all I care.

Next?

Dam....thwarted again!

I guess i just wanted to point out that I didnt think you would be price enforcing at all...... Or maybe hope you wont be...

[Todd Zola]

I reserve the right to change my mind.

Jokes and gamesmanship aside, this league enforces itself simply due to the paucity of top talent and the plethora of remaining cash.

Then it turns into your typical shallow mixed league with "$12 guys" going for $5.

Which really means someone you thought was worth 12 was thought to be worth 4 by everyone else, typical shallow league stuff.

One of these years I am going to trade for Pujols and ARod just to throw them back and watch the fireworks!!!

[burke]

Hi,
Jose Lopez will be eligible at 3B or CI after 10 games, since he is moving to 3b and our league requirements are 10 games.

How many people think Kendrick will get 500 at bats this year? I'm thinking if he would get that many at bats, he probably would be worth keeping. I could draft a $1 CI and then move Lopez to CI once he is eligible. I could throw all the pitchers back and see what I can get for pitching at the draft.

What do people think about this option?
Thanks.

[rotodog]

While I wont comment on the strategy, i will say that if Howie has 500 Abs this year, i see him as a 15/15 threat easily with 20/20 upside, all while possessing the ability to hit .300 and greater....

One other thing to consider is that if he does miss time for whatever reason, it will be for specific periods of time in which you will have replaced Howie at 2b with a replacement. That replacement will add more stats.

So Even if Howie only has 400 ABs and hits 12 HR and steals 12 bases while he hits .300+ , the player you replace him with for 150+ ABs migh hit 4 more HR and steal a few bases adding to What Howie gave you..

So 400 ABS of Howie and 150+ of a replacement in a daily league could easily add up to .295 16 HR and 16 SB..

it would also depend on what I felt others were keeping... If I didnt feel that any top quality 2b/MI would be avilable in the draft, I might prefer Howie. if I felt that there would be very little pitching in the 15 dollar range, i might prefer keeping one of them instead..

Just something to consider..