Gary's NFBC Satellite Team

[Guest]

Mostly just here for your info though feel free to rip anything you wish. I took a very aggressive stance on this one because I've played these things safe for a couple years and done terribly (my background is deep AL only leagues not MIX15, its been an adjustment...) Drafting out of 8-hole...

C - Salty/Marson/Zaun/Barajas - dreadful group, though didn't pay much for them and i think i can find 2 to play.
CI - Konerko/Longoria/Wood/Gamel/G Sanchez - hoping Wood holds the job
MI - Phillips/Rollins/Peralta/Pennington - great top 2, should be good enough
OF - Granderson/Ethier/Pence/A Jones/Francoeur - I think this is the top OF group in my league and an explanation for why you don't have to draft OF in the first few rounds.
UT - Thome

SP - Weaver/Shields/Lilly/Buchholz/Price/Joba/Richard
RP - Soria/Cordero

Reserve P - Masterson/League

If the staff holds up there is a lot of hitting here. The investment in closers earlier than normal for me is to mitigate the ERA/WHIP issues that my starters might have, but I don't think it's terrible. I am definitely light on SB and will have to mine the wire for them, but a couple things go right and I am not desperate for them.

Anyways, feel free to respond but just posting so you can see one look at one person's effort.

[viper]

I guess the first three were Longoria, Phillips & Rollins with Granderson/Ethier at the 4th/5th rounds

One of the MIs you got lucky on. At first glance you have solid power, slightly below average speed and a batting average that will be a solid "1" cat point, maybe "2".

You may very well lead in HRs however. I see only your catchers as below average. You rostered a bunch of 25HR type guys. They add up to a very high HR total.

Not a problem at all with the OF. Also agree that you will be trolling the waiver wire all year for a catcher. If history serves you well, you will get one about May that you will ride. The second will be a work in progress all season long.

With respect to batting average, I do not see a single above average hitter in the lot. My average hitter is rounghly 288-270. I do see multiple drags however.

I may be the worst person to evaluate NFBC pitching staffs. I like the closer/combo. Looks like one in round 6 and the other about 12. I'm fine with your first four SPs. After that, I'm much less fine.

I don't see this team cashing. 70-85 points is my bet. Note I am never right.

[AllstonRockCity]

'Punting Catchers'......a man after my own heart.

Good MI. Your CI worries me, having to rely on Konerko and Wood would give me high blood pressure. Though I suppose if Pennington works out, Perralta provides extra insurance at 3B/CI.

When I first saw your OF, I thought "well, who's he gonna have for Pitchers?". Seemed like you were having to hit the OF hard in rounds 4-9, where all the good SP are. I'm quite impressed that you were able to get an OF of that quality (that is Adam Jones, right?) and a rotation as good as you did.

Tell me, drafting from the middle (8-hole), did you find yourself being pulled in about 6 different directions every time you had to pick??? I know I have and for that reason alone, prefer being at the ends.

[Todd Zola]

I don't think Salty constitutes a complete catcher punt at all. More of an end game upside play.

At this point, in any league of this nature, there are 15 teams that can win it and 15 that can be in the basement.

[rotodog]

First, I am no NFBC expert....But I am pretty good at roster construction as whole..

The OF is pretty stacked top to bottom for not having an earlier round OFer...

The MI combo is pretty darn good..

The catchers arent the problem you think they..Are they perfect? No..but as late as you gabbed them,i dont see a problem.. All will play regularly to start the season and you can mix/ match the hot hand..

The 2 corners in Longo and Konerko arent bad at all and B wood could be a revalation..

Thome needs to luck into more PT at UT or the Runs and RBi will take the hit..

But I agree with Viper here,, The BA is going to suffer pretty bad.. I do not have a problem with the BA being bad in a 5x5 if you had much more speed.. To roster such a bad BA you will need to essentially dominate the HR and Sbs .

This is where I differ from Viper. I dont think this is an above avg speed team. I count maybe 120 Sbs...Its not deficient at all, but not enough points in SB to tolerate the BA hit... The opportunity exists that you install pennington at MI but that now starts to take away from the HR advantage..

As far as the Sps go, they arent bad, but they arent great either for a mixed league. I can tell Gary is an AL guy as almost every one of them is an AL guy or was familiar to Gary and played AL ball for a period of time like Lilly.

Aside of the ERA/Whip being avg, the team is lacking K's... You need to avg about 150 Ks per starter I think per starter...
But I only see 2 guys that can be counted on for 150 this year...Weaver and Sheilds..and thats only about 160/175 k's respectively .. There isnt a 200 K guy on the roster. Lily could approach 150, but with the injury and potential to start the year on the DL, Its not a lock. It also looks like Joba is the odd man out in the rotation and he will become waiver wire material soon if not in the rotation... Masterson could step in and fill that void though, but still unproven..

I love the B. League grab though as Aardsma back up....

From the quick look through, I dont see a money finish... But what the heck do I know? So dont take too much from my assessment.... I have never even played NFBC draft league before...

[viper]

I think I said, slightly below average speed.

[rotodog]

I think I said, slightly below average speed.

My bad....Sometimes my eyes see one thing and my brain reads another....

[Todd Zola]

I think the fate of this team comes down to pitching. If you are diligent and work the FAAB, you can usually fix your hitting sufficiently to make it work. Even batting average.

As noted, the strikeouts are a low. That concerns me more than batting average.

[Guest]

For the record, the thing that the team has in common moreso than an AL tilt (though I am an AL guy) is their age. I basicallhy drafted as much post-hype as I could.

I would bet my pitching ends up better than you all think it will, but I absolutely agree the BA/SB combo should be problematic. I will be all over any guy with speed who gets a job.

By the way - I wasn't posting this thing to brag to the group by any stretch, I did so simply to show what one person did. I would guess it will take a lot of management and some luck to get this into the money. But I don't by any means think it is impossible. If Buchholz gives me what I think he will, I believe I have enough pitching. We shall see.

[lawr]

solid enough, even with the catcher questions. but, not sure if it is dominant. the big question would be if your outfielders (assuming adam jones, not andruw) for example, kick it up a notch. and, if rollins can return to form.

you do have pop. and, i like the starting core (though taking some NL pitchers is never a bad thing as their numbers tend to be a little better due to the lack of the DH).

a lot of how this will shake out, though, also depends upon the other teams, and who they selected. if it was a tough draft, which i am guessing, the points and talent could be pretty well spread out and that could make a good across the board team as competitive as any.

[Guest]

Tell me, drafting from the middle (8-hole), did you find yourself being pulled in about 6 different directions every time you had to pick??? I know I have and for that reason alone, prefer being at the ends.

I desire in this order, picks 8, 15, then 1. I love picking 8th. It keeps me in the flow of the draft. But it is a little bit harder to really control a team from the 8 hole.

This was a very tight draft. If you looked at the other teams you wouldn't see anything particuarly stand out. In fact, it was me realizing this very fact that led me to speculate heavily on the post-hypers like Clay, Salty, Joba, Price, etc. To me this comes down to finding 30-50 SB on the wire during the season. Otherwise I was delighted by what I put together. The only regret I had was that I could have gone Soria or Andrus in the 8th, and went Soria to see Andrus go a few in front of me in the 10th. He would have boosted my SB significantly. I just felt that given no top SP, Soria gives me the equivalent of a bump in ERA/RAT from one of those starters and overcomes the fact I have a team full of 2's and 3's to some degree.

[viper]

very true on speed. That is a commodity which can be found. It might be the only hitting commodity on the waiver wire. Finding power is rare. I feel the same is true for average. I always like to have a bit of average in reserve so I can use the one-trick speed pony at times. I'm not sure if I have seen a single draft this year where I have positive values in all three of the hitting categories I track. I guess I could if I had no pitching but that won't work either.

[viper]

Drafting from the middle allows you to "go with the flow". The problem with that is you can find yourself without a drafting plan because you often switch directions as the draft winds change. From either end, you need a plan you stick to and a degree of drafting discipline that it takes experience to find. I have done four mock drafts from the 14 hole [my slot on Sunday] and another from 13. It took me that long to find a drafting plan I am comfortable with. In all but my last mock, I made impetuous/hurried picks without filling think them through. And even that one had a big mid-drfat mistake. My draft sheet has a series on notes I've made on things to do and avoid.

[Guest]

What I find most enjoyable about this is that my first 7 selections, all on offense, you could absolutely make a case (a case) that the top 5 picks (Longoria/Rollins/Phillips/Granderson/Ethier) could end up top 5 at their position at the end of the season, with Jones and Pence could end up in the top 10 (reach, but not crazy). And at the end of the day, it's still a team that people on this board I really respect come back and say...meh to. I am not complaining about it at all, in fact it actually really appeals to me, but I nailed my draft strategy, I mean nailed it. And yet having done it all, I may end up with mediocrity.

As for AVG, viper, I totally agree that it is best to hold an AVG buffer. But the truth is that in a top 3 pays type of deep league, I am not going to end up carrying the AVG killers that long, except at C. If Wood can't hit, he won't play. Konerko is much more often a .270 guy than .240 - what I need to have happen is that the top hitters end up closer to .300 than .280. And if they don't, my RBI and R aren't going to get where I need them.

I think my point is that in leagues with really good players I focus on counting stats from hitters with the potential to at least not hurt me on AVG because I am not comfortable rostering players who contribute little other than AVG and maybe a few SB. Todd made the point in the First Pitch that his major issue with Mauer is that his value is mostly AVG and you end up behind on the counting stats, only to probably have to give away the AVG buffer you get from him in order to roster enough counting stats later. I tend to agree with that. I am going to be a real threat in my league if Pence and Pacman and Ethier and the like take that next step to being elite hitters, and if they don't, I won't, and its not just because of my AVG category. It's the whole enchilada. I tend to go all or nothing on these things, very little hedging, minimizing safe picks unless it really accentuates a strategic decision I have made.

[viper]

I'm fine with the average you have. My scale would have your team around the .280 mark. Like you, I try to avoid average drainers.

[rotodog]

Hey Gary,

Thanks for letting us dissect your team....You were a good sport. Some of us drafted tonight and now is your chance for revenge on me and Viper as We both posted our teams in the NFBC Rookie league Thread...

Your team looks a bit better to me now...

[Guest]

I will take a gander in. 15 team Mixed drafting under that pressure is a lot harder than you'd think.

That said, I love the feedback.