Tulowitzki

[viper]

Thoughts on Troy

he scares me and he is often times available at the end of round one. Should he scare me? I agree with the profile which notes he hasn't any steady history of success. I like risk aversion in the first 3-4 rounds. Sometimes players just have bad years but why draft someone so early who you cannot be confident in.

[AllstonRockCity]

If you've ever actually seen him play in person, I feel its easy to be confident in him. I caught 2 of 3 the interleague games in 07 when the Rox visited the Red Sox. He is simply amazing to watch. He literally looked like a man amongst boys out there.

Whats not to like about a young SS, who's still developing but should give you at least a .280 25/15 90/90 line?? and that's his basement. upside? .295 35/25 110/110.

I've mocked several times at the end of round 1. My perfect scenario there is Wright/Tulo. But whenever Wright is gone and I'm looking at Tulo vs. Crawford/Ellsbury/Longoria, I go Tulo every time.

[rotodog]

Thoughts on Troy

he scares me and he is often times available at the end of round one. Should he scare me? I agree with the profile which notes he hasn't any steady history of success. I like risk aversion in the first 3-4 rounds. Sometimes players just have bad years but why draft someone so early who you cannot be confident in.

I have pondered the same thing Viper... Even so much that I have considered him with the 7th pick if the top 6 flows like I think it will ( I got it out of my system though) in the Rookie NFBC....

But one thing I see is that 2b/SS is especially thick in certain mid/late round tiers.. There is also either late/mid speed options or power options depending on what you team needs at MI..

So unless a guy at 2b/ SS truly falls into my lap from the 7 hole, I will not be reaching for one in the first 4 rounds..

Thats not saying I wont own a SS or 2b in the first 4 rounds, but in the middle, I dont think I need to reach a bit to own a decent one...

As far as history goes, I like to avoid risk with my money. This will be the first draft I have done in 5 years with money on the line..I ahve been auction all the way. But I equate it like this. In an auction, I have no problem spending Big money on guys I want/need.. But when i spend, I buy the Best/most reliable guys I can. If its too risky, i dont spend the big money on them... It equates to a 1st or 2nd rd selection in my mind. I will prefer Talent and reliabilty in the first 2-3 rounds... When you draft and early Reyes type an count on him for 50 steals and he goes down in April, your kind of up the proverbial creek...(although, there was nothing risky about Reyes in March last year)..

Take the reliability...In the End, do you think troy will better those numbers from last year? I think that might be a ceiling in terms of total roto value when you add the steals he had. I dont really see him bettering those numbers. He could equal them or come close and still not have a bad year...

What if he hits 27 HR and steals 11 bases while hitting .297.. Still a great year from any player,especially a SS, but you can most likely get that stat line in later rounds from a player like tori hunter... Is Tori a 1st rounder? If Troy does have the above season, is he a waste? No...But Matt kemp will most likely give you the same numbers above + an extra 25 steals.....

Thats my take...

[AllstonRockCity]

What if he hits 27 HR and steals 11 bases while hitting .297.. Still a great year from any player,especially a SS, but you can most likely get that stat line in later rounds from a player like tori hunter... Is Tori a 1st rounder? If Troy does have the above season, is he a waste? No...But Matt kemp will most likely give you the same numbers above + an extra 25 steals.....

Thats my take...

Kemp will not be there when Viper picks in the Rookie Invitational.

I understand that your Hunter comment is hyperbole, but.........How many SS are going to hit 27 with 11?? Hanley and then no one else. Rollins might get the closest, he'll steal more, but I don't see 27 bombs from J-Roll this year. Forget about the bags, how many SS are going to hit 27 HR? Hanley and then no one else. Alexei? Tejada? Escobar? Drew?

I do agree that there are good pockets of MI value later. You also risk missing out on them, especially so if you need to fill all 3 MI spots with them. Grabbing a stud MI makes the guys your referring to that much more attractive. But, the same can be said about OF. There are WAY MORE OF values late.

Hanley and Tulo are so far ahead of every other SS its not even close. Thats why Tulo approaches 1st round consideration.

I can't even believe that I'm on this side of this argument. I'm quite risk averse. But in the end I need to keep reminding myself that this game is about what's going to happen, not what has happened in the past.

[Black Sox]

Tulo was hurt the 1st 1/2 of 08, other than that he's been a stud. I've been actively trying to get him in the 2nd round of my 10 team leagues. Went #11 to another team in one draft and fell to me at 17 in my draft last week ( started my team with Utley / Tulo / Youk and I was thrilled! ) I think Rollins will be fine, but I'd MUCH rather have Tulo. After Jeter it's pretty much all risk to varying degree's after that ( although I went with E.Andrus when I missed out on Tulo ) but with all the SB avaiable in the OF, I've really tried to get power from my IF whenever possible.

[rotodog]

I am not saying that Tulo isnt atop the SS rankings and well ahead of most others..

But lets just expand SS to include 2b as a MI here for a second..

I guess I am looking at who might be there in the late 1st rd along with Tulo... I wont mention other positions, but at 2b you also have Kinsler and Phillips staring at you also...

Now 30/20 is the ceiling I feel for Tulo...Mostly because of the Sbs...with a .290 ish AVG. That to me is best case scenario..With the Sbs likely being closer to 11-12....And he has been a bit risky...Not a lot, just one bad half to a season..

But what can we reasonably expect from Kinsler this year at 2b? 25/25 with a 275 ish AVG? But his caveat is screwy injuries... But that 25/25 still has upside as was evidenced last year with a 30/30 campaign he put up...On top of the fact that the 25/25 is likely induced by lower ABs due to his prowess for finding some late season maladies....so it most likely is based on 500 or so Abs vs Tulo's 600+ Abs... And when Kinsler misses games, its not one here and one there, its for specific periods of time meaning you will have another 2b/MI adding stats to the theoretical 25/25 above...

Brandon Phillips can also be reasonably expected to go 25/25 also with maybe a .280 ish Avg....

I guess I am just presenting options....If Troy was a reliable .320+ hitter like a Hanley I would feel better about the potential loss of steals Tulo will most likely experience...

From his place on the turn he can do different things that others cant also..he can grab 50+ HRs and 60 SBS on that turn with a burner and a slugger...or go with a wright/kinsler type combo and get 55+ HR and 50+ sbs....

Or he can go Tulo/wright and get 50 HR and 35-40 Sbs

or Tulo/Power hitting 1b type and get 65+ HR and 15 Sbs

or he can go Tulo/speedster and get 40+ HR and 65 + sbs

or he could go kinsler/wright and get 55+ HR and 50+ Sbs

I guess you cant go wrong anyway you slice it.....If you want Tulo, I have no problem with grabbing him at the 14 pick ...

But Viper did ask for opinion and I tossed mine out there...as always, it doesnt make it right...Its just mine..

[Black Sox]

Great stuff Rotodog, but you expanded it to include 2b, when the discussion was just SS. What's your opinion if it's only SS were talking about.

[viper]

Thanks for the comments and hopefully there will be more. We all know that Tulo is perceived as a late 1st/early 2nd round player. MB has projections that confirm this. I look at just one other site for projections and BBHQ sees a different player who is late 3rd. I think we all agree he will never get anywhere near that far. MB has 6 more HRs for the counting stats i watch. The biggest difference is in R&R [runs & rbi] where MB has a combined 32 extra. MB also has 66 more PA which accounts for about half that difference.

At least I have 4 days to make a call and who is to say he will be there anyway. Hopefully some staff will chime in.

[rotodog]

Great stuff Rotodog, but you expanded it to include 2b, when the discussion was just SS. What's your opinion if it's only SS were talking about.

Well i expanded it to include 2b only because many people lump them into MI when they are discussing taking a 2b/SS over say OF/1b...

But as far as SS goes and 2b, I feel there are enough options at every level of the draft that if you have a guy at another position that is clearly going to outproduce an early Round SS/2b, then I would consider taking him over the SS...

The SS position offers many flavors at different points in the draft.. Speed or power to Solid all the way around to guys that wont hurt you late if you gab some other Boppers or Pitchers earlier.

From Early in draft: hanley, Tulo, Jeter, Rollins....

Early Mid : Alexi/bartlett/drew

Mid: Asdrubal/ Yunel

Later mid : Evereth/ Scutaro

and late : JJ, Peralta etc..

Maybe this is all for nothing because I am taking Tulowitzki with the 7th Pick and I am trying to talk myself out of it..

[viper]

if you are taking him, then this bud's for you.

As far as rankings go, I used to combine 1B/3B and 2B/SS but eventually separated them as it was cosmetically easier for me. That said, I am considering combining them starting with my $6 and under tier.

[lawr]

it is easy to think tulo has "saberhagen syndrome" (every other year is a good one) but, i think he is hear to stay. this is usually the time when players will take that step forward proving they are indeed stars, or, slip back into interesting and speculative and ultimately disappointing.

i too have seen tulo a couple of times, and he really does look like a player. and getting that .297-27-90-11 out of a shortsop hole is pretty good. not that far behind hanley, in fact.

the thing though is after the top shortstops, there are still bartlett and aybar and asdrubal, all of whom are also very good 6-7th round bets, depending upon how your first picks shake out.

still, i have some combo of tulo/utley/kinsler in pretty much every mock i have done, and am way happy with that combo.