Projection Theory Poll #1

[Guest]

Assume nothing else is known about the player, In the last three years in fulltime PA, he's hit 10, 20, and 30 HR. How many do you project him to hit this year?

this is just for discussion purposes. Please feel free to comment afterwards.

[Bodhizefa]

I would guess 25-27 guessing that a new skillset has been set but that regression will bring him down a tick.

[AllstonRockCity]

I chose other because I cannot assume nothing else is known about the player and choose between 20 and 30.

Lets say the player has been around for a while and got hurt the year hit 10HR, hit for about his career avg when he hit 20 and had a fluke year the year he hit 30. To me, thats a 20HR projection. Now lets assume that this player broke into the majors the year he hit 10, adjusted to everyday life at the big league level the year he 20 and now appears to really be coming into his own the year he hits 30. I'd say thats a 30, and maybe more like 35 if you really like the guy.

[cwk1963]

I say 30. Due to the fact you said "last three years in fulltime PA" I'm assuming he's a young MLB player with no significant injury time who is learning, adjusting and has set a new skill level. I'm not ready to go to 40 unless he shows he can maintain and build on this new skill set.

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm with AllstonRock City - other. Simply not enough know. Based on what's presented here, the answers may well as be 40 this year, 50 next and 60 in 2011.

[viper]

With this minimal data, also assuming he is playing with essentially the same situation [team, teammates], I would think it would be between 25-33, so I would best guess a bit under 30. On a side note, if a site suggested 25 or 35, I would not find either out of line. If it was 20 or 40, I would ask why, especially the 40 side of things.

[rotodog]

He did state "thats all the info available" ..And FT Ab's. So taking the "not enough info" route shouldnt be a an answer...

So what he is saying, is that he has to make a call as well as everyone else in the Projections community. I think he may be getting at perception. A couple folks perceived the 10,20,30 to be a young guy on the way up as opposed to an older player that slowly came from nowhere..

I think we just want better on the way up, but if you look at the reverse poll on the way down 30, 20, 10 we assume an old player as opposed to a Young player that came to the party with a bang and slowly turned in to a piece of crap. We just assume its an old guy in decline, like Miggy Tejada as opposed to Jeff Francuer ....

Its a nice exercise in perception if thats what Gary is getting at....

If not, I voted the last skill set in each 30 HR and 10 HR...But as a prognosticator , one would most like hedge a little more so that the numbers are a little more to the buying customers liking....so I could see some middle ground depending on if the player is on the way up or in decline truly...

[aburt19]

I would say somewhere between 20 and 30 and would probably settle on 25-27. It's always hard to tell when someone
has had a career year and I never want to pay for stats to repeat on what may be a career year.

[da_big_kid_94]

Dup Post

[da_big_kid_94]

He did state "thats all the info available" ..And FT Ab's. So taking the "not enough info" route shouldnt be a an answer...

Why shouldn't it be? Think Gary's setting up a set of projections solely based on the information he provided here? So, if that's all the info, the answer is pass. Flip the script - I just made you responsible for generating a set of projections for the player outlined in this thread - you up for it?

[rotodog]

He did state "thats all the info available" ..And FT Ab's. So taking the "not enough info" route shouldnt be a an answer...

Why shouldn't it be? Think Gary's setting up a set of projections solely based on the information he provided here? So, if that's all the info, the answer is pass. Flip the script - I just made you responsible for generating a set of projections for the player outlined in this thread - you up for it?

Ahhh heck no.. I need info... But All I was saying is I think he has a reason for being simple.. Nobody in their right mind would try to project from that info...

[shif6]

I think that 10 has to be considered an outlier. 40 would be wild speculation. I would split the difference between 20 and 30, ending up with 25-27 on the ground that 30 is the most recent information we have.
This leaves me with other unless 20 is 20+ or 30 if I am asked to choose the closest number.

[Bodhizefa]

Its a nice exercise in perception if thats what Gary is getting at....

That's what I gathered as well.

[viper]

And I have heard to it said that "perception is reality".

[rotodog]

And I have heard to it said that "perception is reality".

Exactly....And this is exactly a players chance to exploit perception to pick up real value.......

[Guest]

Since there were a couple of posts in here related to my motivations with the post, I suppose I didn't have a concrete one other than to see if people looked at uptrends and downtrends the same way. And this board has basically evaluated the up and down guys the same way. Whichh means you generally do stick to a method that you mentally evaluate the data. Basically regression between the mean and the prior year.

Again, as I say in the other thread, this is how generally our methodology works, so you should have confidence we're thinking how you think.

As for the comment about not possibly projecting with just that information - we do it all the time. I mean, we have the entirety of their stat line, but ultimately every projection you see out there is an extrapolation of rate stats adjusted as the provider sees fit to a projected # of PA/AB.