Signing Longoria to a long-term contract

[garveyfan]

Looking for advice for my 9-team, AL-only, 5x5, roto, auction, keeper league.

I need to decide how long of a contract I want to sign Evan Longoria for. We're in the third year of this league, and this is the first time I've faced this decision -- at least with someone who's worthy of a long-term contract. I've signed others to 1 or 2 year contracts.

I currently have Longoria at $6. I can sign him for up to 5 years. In the first 3 years, his price would go up by $5 each year, and in the last 2 his price would go up by $10 each year. So, we're looking at:

2010: $6
2011: $11
2012: $16
2013: $26
2014: $36

Going 3 years is a no-brainer for me. I'm thinking, though, that I should go the 4th as well.

Veterans of keeper leagues (or non-vets with stong opinions) -- hope to hear what you think!

Thanks much.

[rotodog]

I would go 4 for sure....If he was a pitcher of exceptional skill and age, I would hedge and not even go four years . But as a hitter that isnt prone to injury yet, I would go 4....and then ask myself these 2 questions about year 5..

Two questions to ask yourself before you decide on a fifth year..

1. Whats the penalty if you dump a contract one season if he starts getting hurt like nick johnson or starts hitting like EVA longoria? If its minimal, then take the risk...If you cant dump him or it will be costly, you may hedge on the 5th year...

2, What would Evan go for on the open market on draft day after 4 years assuming his production level is similar to what it is now? If he would go for 40 bucks, then dont go 5 years....just buy him back at 40 instead of 36 and avoid all the risk of the fifth year.. If massive inflation is abound and he would cost 60 bucks, then you have some soul searching to do on that 5th year...

Answer those questions and your answer may be right in front of your eyes..

[garveyfan]

Thanks, rotodog -- I forgot to include the penalty for buying out a contract.

We have to pay twice the value of the remaining years on the contract. Buying out a 5th year at $36 would cost $72. Buying out years 4 ($26) and 5 ($36) would cost $124.

Inflation tends to be around 20% in our league. Hard to see how things could evolve on that front 5 years down the line, but sitting here today, I would see him going for $40-45.

For both of those reasons, I'm inclined to stop at 4 years on this deal, but I wanted to check my thinking.

[AllstonRockCity]

Longoria is a special player. He's so good at such a young age that I would surely be signing him to that 5th year if I were in your shoes. He's worth about $36 now.

In 5 years he'll be 29, still hitting his peak, power-wise. I do not see any risk at all signing him to the 5 years. The only risk is injury but that can happen to anyone, so its not worth noting.

Also, if you don't want to pay him $36 that year, trade him, someone will be going for it all in 2014 and I'm sure they'd love to make him their key cog in a championship run. DO IT.

[lawr]

a nine team AL only is still pretty shallow, and, well, in that context longoria, if he simply stays steady, rather than improves (which is more likely) makes him a pretty good deal. even at $36.

lock him up.

[Hambowen]

I would not go the 5th year. Just because he might be worth the $36 does not mean you should go the 5th year. Good long term keepers are all about giving you an advantage because that player is not only really good but also well priced. If you keep a star player at full value you really are not giving yourself much of an advantage. You are just keeping a star player. If this league was deeper or had huge inflation then maybe you could make the argument. 20% inflation means he at $36 is basically value which gives you zero advantage.

Not really sure if I would go 3 or 4 years without seeing how your team makeup is and what your prospects for winning are the next few years. If you had a bunch of contracts running out of real good players in the next 2 years then I might really go for it during those years and only keep him for 3 years giving yourself big advantage by having him so cheap for those 3 years and then rebuild in that 4th. If not then I would go the 4 years.

[lawr]

u r correct hambowen, about profit. but, i would think in a nine-team league, longoria would fetcth $40-45 bucks.

i guess the barometer would be to ask garveyfan how much sizemore, arod, and crawford went for last year (or nominally: not sure if this is a new league, or if garv is just new to the league and those prices are available).

but, when the league is shallow, you do have to overpay some for the studs simply because the league is shallow.

so, there becomes a balancing act between that profit you note, and building a stat base for your offense. in my experience, if longoria can close to break even, then the game is won picking guys like ryan sweeney or carl pavano for a buck or so each when they each deliver $11 or so.

[rotodog]

Two things he answered answered his question for me and him..

The penaly is Too big to get out of a bad contract...You need risk management...If he goes all Broken knee/valley fever or whatever and is crap for 2 years, youre sunk on the back end of that deal..

And, the big one...Why be locked in to a guy, no matter who, that will guarantee you own him no matter what in 5 years at 36 bucks when if he wanted him back it might cost 40 bucks...42 bucks...

For a mere 4 or 5 bucks in 5 years time, you can buy insurance on a bad deal......Its a no brainer for me...do the 4 and pay an extra 5 bucks in year 5 if you really want him back....

I do agree he is special..I have watching this dirtbag since he was a college dirtbag banging balls all over the Cape summer league...Long beach State fans will get the reference...

[garveyfan]

Another reminder of why I love this site...good advice that makes you think.

Lawr -- this is the third year of this league. I've been in it since it started. Here are salaries from last year of a few top players:

ARod -- $34 -- gotta remember he started the year on the DL, so he was purchased at a discount. Had he been healthy to start the year, he probably would have gone in the neighborhood of (and maybe a little above) these next 2

Cabrera -- $42
Teixeira -- $40


And since you asked, here are:

Sizemore -- $31
Crawford -- $37

I'm approaching this decision along the lines of rotodog's thinking -- the cost to get out of the contract is pretty steep in the event of serious injury. So there's some risk management here and with inflation pretty tame in the league (so far), I would be pretty sure of being able to get him back for no more than the mid-40s once the contract is done.

[lawr]

so (nose snort of laughter) i at least had his price pretty well pegged.

i think you need to do what works for you over the long haul. i think it is hard to anticipate something cataclysmic in that fifth year, though, and in the interim, you would keep him anyway, no?

like i said in an earlier forum post, "i am always worried about my guys getting hurt." nasty. so nasty.

either way, you got a pretty sweet cornerstone.

although, one other thought is signing him for the five, and trading him halfway through year four. let someone else take that risk and tie up their cash.

just thinking out loud, though.

[Hambowen]

I am actually saying only sign him for the 3 years at $16 per year.

Think of it this way.

- 4 years at $26 per year = $104 you pay over the 4 years to have him.

- 3 years at $16 per and then pay $45 for the 4th year.

You pay $93 for the 4 years and that is assuming he goes for the $45.

PRO's:
- You have $30+ player for a 50% discount for 3 years giving you a nice profit advantage for all 3 years.
- Lowers your overall risk due to injury as you have him for less years and the buyout would not be a big deal if he gets hurt in a couple of years.
CON's:
- Run the risk of Longoria going for more then $45 in year 4. Although if he does I am sure there will be other players in that price range to grab that are equally good.
- Hurts you in the 4th year. you get great advantage for those first three years but now in the 4th year you are paying $45 instead of $26.

Overall if it was my decision I would take the huge advantage in those 3 years at $16 especially considering how much of a penalty there is for eating bad contracts. If you want him back in year 4 then pay for him and still pay less then you would have over the 4 years at $26 per year.

[garveyfan]

Thanks, all. I'm going 4 years on this one, and appreciate all of your thoughts.

Hambowen -- the way the contracts work, Longoria would only be $26 in year 4 -- not 4 years at $26. He's $6 in 2010, $11 in 2011, $16 in 2012 and $26 in 2013 -- for a total 4-year cost of $59. He'd be $36 in 2014 (only) if I hung on to him in year 5.

[Hambowen]

I completely misunderstood.

All extended contract leagues i have been a part of you had to extend him for the # of years and then pay what his high price would be for each year. That is a pretty easy system then in your league. Certainly makes the 4th year well worth it.