Young pitchers and draft day

[freddiebeach]

We all do it, look for the next young pitcher that is going to make a major move in the upcoming year. I always have one, if not two, young arms I target to fill out my rotation. This is where I see the following pitchers rate in relation to each other for this coming season. To put focus on this discussion lets assume a 5x5 12 team league. My orders is as follows:

J Shields
J Johnson
E Santana - concerned about his IP increase last year
E Volquez - very concerned about his IP increase last year
C Young
M Cain
M Kershaw
J Jurrjens - very concerned about his IP increase last year
M Scherzer
J Cueto
K Slowely - very concerned about his IP increase last year

What are other peoples thoughts on these guys? Who should be on this list? Who shouldn't be on this list?

[rotodog]

We all do it, look for the next young pitcher that is going to make a major move in the upcoming year. I always have one, if not two, young arms I target to fill out my rotation. This is where I see the following pitchers rate in relation to each other for this coming season. To put focus on this discussion lets assume a 5x5 12 team league. My orders is as follows:

J Shields
J Johnson
E Santana - concerned about his IP increase last year
E Volquez - very concerned about his IP increase last year
C Young
M Cain
M Kershaw
J Jurrjens - very concerned about his IP increase last year
M Scherzer
J Cueto
K Slowely - very concerned about his IP increase last year

What are other peoples thoughts on these guys? Who should be on this list? Who shouldn't be on this list?

First, all the names you mentioned are fine players to target at certain points in a draft. But I consider a young pitcher to go "all Koufax" on the league from nowhere to be one that flys under the radar or a prospect that doesnt deliver in year 1 like the way we want...
So James Sheilds, Matt Cain, E Santana and Volquez do not fit the criteria..they are known commodities at this point and will not fly too low...

But the others fit that bill...Sometimes too much talk can get around about a Young guy to make him too Hyped...

I feel Johnson, Kershaw and Scherzer may be 3 that do.

So I love SLOWEY, CUETO the most from your list....

But I would still rather Own Gil Meche before a number of the names on that list ...He flys low every year IMO...

Some to add: Some will known commodities, but I feel the list will return value for what you might expect to pay for them...

S BAker
Andrew Miller
Cueto
Jon Sanchez
Manny Parra
Slowey
Sonnanstine...

Thats off the top of my head, and I like them for various reasons . Mainly K/rates combined with GB tendencies or Low HR rates....Cueto makes the list just for his pure filtyh stuff and when he figures it out, I think his ceiling is higher than anyone one the list..

Miller I see as a Derek Lowe type with More K's when he gets it...

Sanchez is has great stuff..

BAker has decent stuff, but he is a pitcher.. Mike Mussina like....

Slowey has great control....

Sonnanstine has great control and with experience and great defense behind him can be real good.

Greinke I didnt list as I feel he hasnt flown uner the radar at all but I like the guy...

[freddiebeach]

All good points and I agree that for alot of these pitchers there are known pitchers. One of mine is also Meche and another is Lilly. For the prices in auction (or draft positions) they can be had for good value. Thanks for your thoughts. Anyone else?

[cwk1963]

I concur with the dog on this. Some of those names are already known quantities and will not sneak by anybody. Some others don't live up to the expected step forward (Olsen, Oliver Perez, Daniel Cabrera). Then you have the occasional unknown commodity - El Duque, Dice K, Irabu, Nomo, Contreras, Kawakami this year - who were established outside the US but we didn't know how that success would translate to MLB. It's been a mixed bag in relation to this. I think what needs to be done is to look at and rely on the skills and hope that they develop into what the skills say they should. Other than that, it really is a crap shoot. For example, I heard an interview on XM a couple weeks ago that reviewed some of the drafts for the past 5 years. It's amazing how many of the top 10 washed out. If my mind serves me well, I think the percentage of top 10 that actually became average MLB players was 30%! That's pretty amazing for a group of prospects that many regard as 'Can't Miss'. The bottom line is some step up and some fade away.