CHONE, really?

[Mosey]

I was away for a few years exploring the Andes Mountains and inventing a diet cola that tasted just as great as regular but what is this CHONE stuff?

It is like every player is hyped up as the next big thing. And everyone has 400AB, even back up catchers. I counted with almost 10,000 AB.

Maybe I am old school but how can you have decent projections when everyone gets way more but not equal and you decide the playing time like PECOTA) AB than they will. You can't have three catchers all with 400ab, there isn't enough time.

What good is everyone having upside projections, you just end up paying too much for everyone and end up broke looking at some slobwho your sheet says will hit you a dozenhome runs and is cut the next week.

Seems like a bit of a shel game.

I am sure Sean has a method of some sort. Does anyone here use CHONE and why? Am I just missing something about the projection system? Is it a bad trick to tell your leaguemates about?

[Mays]

I agree that playing time is a big factor in accurate projections, but it's hard to build into a computerized projection system. So much of it depends on depth chart issues that it really needs to be done by hand by someone who has studied each team's situation.

I think if people want to use CHONE projections, the best choice is to tweak the AB/IP for everyone. CHONE has done very well in the past on the accuracy of rate stats, so if you can get the playing time right, you're in good shape.

[Mays]

Let me also add that having an optimistic playing time projection for everyone can be quite helpful for identifying prospects... You might only expect Joe Koshansky to get 50-100 AB, but it is useful to know that CHONE expects him to be very good if he gets a shot. Knowing his projection for 400 AB, and you might be quicker to grab him if Atkins gets traded or Helton gets hurt.