MB'09 Justin Duchscherer

[uharchmajor]

Pre All-Star he went 10-5 with a 1.82 ERA. What are everybody's thoughts and expectations on '09 for this guy? Of course there are question marks about him, but could be a good sleeper type? Low 3s for ERA seems reasonable, but does he K enough and have a chance to get the Ws to help out?

[Todd Zola]

Before we are called on it, our wins projection for Duchsherer is too high, he got a lot of decisions in a relief role previously and that threw off the automated calculation and it slipped by me when I did the cross check.

Carry on

[uharchmajor]

No worries Todd, this thread would have gone up anyways.

[Guest]

Obviously he's an excellent talent but health has been his issue.

The good news - he won't ever hurt you in the lineup or be much of a risk of blowing up.

The bad- if you pay full price for the potential, he'll burn you when he's out.

[rotodog]

This guy is sure worth the risk...

if he gets hurt, you replace him. Until then, He is Solid. he was lucky according to many ERA predictors , but many dont take park adjustments into effect.

He isn't a ground ball pitcher, but the fly isnt a problem in Oakland with all the Foul territory and the big park...More flys become outs, so grounders arent needed like they are in other parks..

He did have a 6.04 k/9 and 2.16 BB/9 and that is certainly acceptable and that is enough K's to worthy. HR rate of .70 HR/9 is superb for a SP....Keeps him out of trouble...... Low-Mid threes is what to expect and anything else is a bonus....Take his healthy time stats and combine them with another FA guy on a good run and you have a darn good pitcher for essentially extra change. Many pitchers will go ahead of that duo that wont be worth it..

[da_big_kid_94]

I think making a call on a pitcher who had off season hip surgery prior to seeing him work in spring training is not wise. I'd put off calling him anything until mid way through March.

[njdupre]

Duchscherer is a fine pitcher IMO, but my biggest concern would be the large increase in innings pitched between '08 and '09. That was quite an big increase in workload

[rotodog]

I think making a call on a pitcher who had off season hip surgery prior to seeing him work in spring training is not wise. I'd put off calling him anything until mid way through March.

I agree...My assessment was based on normal health in March....

[Guest]

In context I agree with your assessment rotodog, just you've got to pay for the risk that your FA option isn't lights out. In many leagues there are not such guarantees.

[Todd Zola]

I think making a call on a pitcher who had off season hip surgery prior to seeing him work in spring training is not wise. I'd put off calling him anything until mid way through March.

Unfortunately, not everyone is able to put off the decision if they have early drafts or keeper lists, or perhaps if they offer a pay service providing projections.

Another point is I am not at all convinced we will know the whole story by mid-March. There is a possibility Duke looks great in the spring, but the injury recurs later. Did the procedure simply clean up the result of whatever was ailing his hip or did it also take care of the cause? Remember he has been bothered for 2 years.

Omitting the possibility of the injury recurring, which is something I will discuss with some injury specialists in the coming weeks, those with early drafts etc. can only read the available reports and decide if the likely discount is sufficient for them to invest. Duke had 2 surgeries, the initial cleaned up cartilage in his hip, the second took care of some scar tissue associated with the first procedure. All reports indicate he has been throwing and is on track to start spring training on time.

So the early drafter needs to apply their own risk averse level to that information, in concert with the aforementioned fact he had a huge jump in innings pitched from 2007 to 2008, which often puts the arm at risk, or at minimum leads to weaker performance the following season. Do I avoid him altogether? Is the discount from the risk enough to incur that risk? Everyone has their own philosophy.

Those of us supplying projections have decisions to make as well as we can't hold off on a projection until March 15, and like mentioned earlier, I am not sure his health on March 15 will be the same as on August 15.

I am going to be honest, our projection might be too rosy, other than the note about needing to temper his wins.

I am OK with the performance elements as we accounted for a likely unsustainable 2008 hit rate. His expected ratios will regress a bit from the stellar 2008 levels. However I am not sure our 156 IP reflects the level of risk, even though we come in below other sources with respect to innings. Including a rehab start, he threw 144 1/3 innings last season after 17 1/3rd the season previous.

It will come down to what I find out about a recurrence. If there is little or no danger, the 156 seems about right to account for the major increase from 2007 to 2008. We could actually add another 10-15 IP and still reflect the workload risk as most top starters with Duchscherer's skills get 185-200 IP. If there is a decent chance his hip gets hurt again, that 156 needs to be tempered. The important thing is we not only provide a projection, but also a context for that to be considered, with Duchscherer that context is mostly injury related, but also a little contingent upon noting his excellent BABIP last season.

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm not saying we'll know by mid March either. I also know there are leagues that want you to submit keepers well before mid March (I don't agree with them but I understand them). As Gary said, your own standards of risk aversion need to be applied in this situation. And your second paragraph says it all - the rosy picture that some posts in this thread painted may be nothing more than a mirage.

I'd let him be someone else's sleeper/albatross if I have to make a call prior to mid March - because he's the type of pitcher players are going to want to build their staffs around come draft/auction day. To show what that means from my own perspective - I extended Liriano last year until 2009 - I wouldn't touch Duke until I saw some of him.

[CubFan]

I think making a call on a pitcher who had off season hip surgery prior to seeing him work in spring training is not wise. I'd put off calling him anything until mid way through March.

Unfortunately, not everyone is able to put off the decision if they have early drafts or keeper lists, or perhaps if they offer a pay service providing projections...........

So the early drafter needs to apply their own risk averse level to that information, in concert with the aforementioned fact he had a huge jump in innings pitched from 2007 to 2008, which often puts the arm at risk, or at minimum leads to weaker performance the following season. Do I avoid him altogether? Is the discount from the risk enough to incur that risk? Everyone has their own philosophy......

Was wondering if the increased work load year over year is as much of a concern for a pitcher who is 31 (Duchscherer)? Although I don't have the research in front of me I was under the impression those studies were more for the young pitcher (early-mid 20s) who undertake a large increase from the previous year (see Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, thank you Dusty Baker).

I've become a believer that a person's health is an owned skill much like being able to hit and throw a ball. I recall reading several articles on this by Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus. At first I was a bit skeptical but after a few years and watching how the same players kept getting injured has me in this camp. So, that being said I am leaning on Duchscherer having a higher probability of becoming injured during the upcoming season. That is not to say he won't be valuable when healthy, because he will. But keep Clint Eastwood's line of "Do you feel lucky, punk (or words to that affect) when you go to draft him and you need a replacement later in the year? If his owner throws him into the draft I will go after him into the high single digits and use him as my 4th or 5th SP.

[cwk1963]

I'm not saying we'll know by mid March either. I also know there are leagues that want you to submit keepers well before mid March (I don't agree with them but I understand them). As Gary said, your own standards of risk aversion need to be applied in this situation. And your second paragraph says it all - the rosy picture that some posts in this thread painted may be nothing more than a mirage.

I'd let him be someone else's sleeper/albatross if I have to make a call prior to mid March - because he's the type of pitcher players are going to want to build their staffs around come draft/auction day. To show what that means from my own perspective - I extended Liriano last year until 2009 - I wouldn't touch Duke until I saw some of him.

I don't agree with them AND i don't understand them unless people are from all over the country and there's a problem with travel for their draft. But I see many local leagues that have it that way. Personally, I don't see the rush. But that's my $.02.

I'm not averse to taking certain risks and Duke is one of them. Here's one case where an early draft would help because many people would be scared off. If he pitches well in the spring, everyone will know that so the chance of getting him on a bargain would go by the boards. Todd's point of we don't know if he'll be good until August 15 is well taken and certainly valid. I normally include that in how far I'm willing to go in my bidding. I got Liriano 2 years ago for $3, $3, $13 and hope I can do the same with Duke.

[rotodog]

I do want to clarify my point a bit. I guess I didnt answer originally as if someone had to make a decision today. But I want to second what Todd said. Its risk and at what price... For a buck or late round fodder, I am a buyer because of the scenario I outlined earlier.....12 bucks or the 12th round? You own him...... I wouldnt reach for anyone...Just take what the draft gives you. If it gives you Duke for a buck, then its a good play.....

[da_big_kid_94]

I agree with you, rototdog - but I would say it's very unlikely he goes for a buck - no one's number 1 starter goes for only a buck unless you play in the nation's capital... and maybe even not there.

[Hambowen]

Been almost a month since this last post. Wondering if people have some different opinions or are we still in wait and see mode?

[Tampa Bob]

I'm still waiting. From my perspective I would not be able to bid anything on him based upon more than 2/3 of a season whether he was hurting now or not.

I also don't understand "real" leagues forcing a mid-March roster freeze.

~ TB

[Todd Zola]

The additional elbow woes have compounded the issues to where Duchscherer is a major risk and should not be counted on at all for more than 100-120 IP, we may be optimistic for 130 right now.

[Hambowen]

I also don't understand "real" leagues forcing a mid-March roster freeze.

~ TB

All my leagues have keepers due 1 week before the draft. So any league that is the end of this month would have mid month freezes.

Just depends when leagues are drafting i guess.

[Tampa Bob]

Yeah, I keep forgetting what a big world it is out there. I'm in such an old-fashioned league we actually announce our keepers just before the auction starts. Still, with the season starting in April I'd think that the week of the 23rd would be enough notice. Eh, that do I know?

~ TB

[Guest]

Sad, he's a real good talent but you can never pay anything for him besides what you'd be willing to lose.

[da_big_kid_94]

Sad, he's a real good talent but you can never pay anything for him besides what you'd be willing to lose.

And that should succinctly sum it up. Well played, young man.

[AllstonRockCity]

Well, another setback, he had to be shut-down yesterday. At this point the 130IP projection is looking even tougher for him to get to. My guess is that he won't pitch at all this year and will end up having surgery.

Might his IP projection be lowered again in a future projection set?

[CubFan]

The A's are now talking about him pitching in relief as they seem to believe he won't be able to hold up as a starter over the course of a full season. If one were still interested in him maybe value him as a MR. As for me I've pretty much discounted him to the $1 bin at the end of the auction. Let someone else take the risk if they want to pay $5 or more.

[cwk1963]

Duch threw 25 pitches in a session today pain free. I hope it continues.