Reserve Picks

[aburt19]

I know that catchers, based on replacement level of catchers, have their value figured differently than other players. My
question is whether that "adjustment" to the catchers is carried over to those players without positive value? If so, I
wondered why? When I get to the 7 bench players for the NFBC, I'm not interested in having a catcher on my bench.
Instead, I want the best player available. A $0 or a $-1 catcher is not as valuable as a $0 or $-1 outfielder if the replacement
level is carried on down to the players who are not part of the 210 positive value players because I want total value, not
value compared to other players at the position.

I guess that what I am saying is that once the 210 offensive players come off the board, the remaining players are all one
big group where replacement level isn't the same as when figuring the positive value hitters at each position.

[Todd Zola]

Much of this will be explained in a series of essays that I hope to get posted tonight.

One of the revelations, if that is not too strong a word considering all we are talking about is fantasy baseball, is that in today's landscape, there is minimal if any difference in the replacement level player except at catcher, and when you factor in all the multi-eligibility players, if there is a difference, it can be considered negligible.

So the quick answer to your question is the 211th hitter is the 211th best player, regardless of position.

That said, there are some strategic elements involved, you may not want to just 'take one off the top'. If you are counting on Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Milton Bradley - players with injury concerns, you may have a positional factor in your choices. If you are short on speed, you may have a categorical bias in your reserves.

A piece I am planning on doing as soon as the bulk of the free agents sign so the player pool is a bit more settled is to show all this mathematically, by computing values based on our projections using the following positional replacement pools:

A) 6 pools, C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF
B) 4 pools, C/CI/MI/OF
C) 2 pool, C and non-C

The so-called revelation is how similar the numbers are for all 3.

[aburt19]

Much of this will be explained in a series of essays that I hope to get posted tonight.
So the quick answer to your question is the 211th hitter is the 211th best player, regardless of position.

That said, there are some strategic elements involved, you may not want to just 'take one off the top'. If you are counting on Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Milton Bradley - players with injury concerns, you may have a positional factor in your choices. If you are short on speed, you may have a categorical bias in your reserves.

I look forward to the article. In my "vast" experience (1 year ) of participating in the NFBC Satellite event, at the end of
the first 23 rounds, there were still several positive value players left both in the hitters and the pitchers. Last year I left the
last pitching spot open in the 23rd round (I was drafting 13th) because David DeJesus was still out there.

I agree that there are strategy decisions that certainly affect it and it's not just the injury problem. If I have left the MI
spot open until the end of the draft and have Alexi Casilla as my MI, I will want to draft a decent replacement in case
Casilla stinks up the joint and gets sent to the minors.

I am somewhat surprised that catcher is the only position where the differential exists. I figured that 2B and SS might also
have a differential, although I would expect it to be much smaller.

[Todd Zola]

Keep in mind I am only talking about the back end of the 2B and SS pools, their replacement players are now the same as 1B, 3B and OF. The quality WITHIN the pool still dictates certain strategic concerns.

Also keep in mind that in the NFBC, the rules are that you need a legal 23 by the 30th pick, not the 23rd pick.

And finally, this is something I will talk about more in the context of an auction and the end game, your 210 draft-worthy hitters will differ from my 210, which will differ from everyone else's in the league. In order for a positively valued player to be available in the 'reserve', post-23rd round, someone you attach negative value must have been drafted. Obviously, whoever drafted the player differs from you with respect to the worth of the player they took and the player they left for you. This is why the NFBC ADP routinely lists more than 450 players (30 x 15).