Would you draft Wieters?

[viper]

Before you say "absolutely" consider the league rules.

This is a ten team AL-only league. It is not a keeper league. It is an auction league. And there is no bench but MLB player sent to the DL list or the minors can be reserved. The standard five hitting categories are used.

We are drafting before the major league rosters are set so anyone still on the spring training roster can be selected. However, if Wieters is sent the minor he cannot be reserved because he is not a returning MLB player. You options would be (1) release him, in which case he will be FAAB eligible after he is called up or (2) let him sit drawing no statistics until he is called up.

For $1 would you accept no statistics for a while. If yes, how high would you bid?

[cwk1963]

I would bid in the $8-10 range and accept no stats for a while if I had to.

[Hambowen]

Don't have time for a full response but just quickly...

The first question i would ask is how many catchers in a 10 team Al only league (assuming you play 2 catchers) would even earn positive value? My assumption without digging further is not all 20 catchers drafted would earn and some could go into bad negatives (Varitek anyone). I am sure others will have numbers and names to support or not that claim.

So I guess my answer would be yes I would bid on him because even him missing a couple months could be more valuable then a replacement catcher that could draw very little if any earnings. How much you would pay for him depends on what your other catchers are going for during the auction so not sure I can answer that here. Assuming they all go for what you consider "full" value I would say anything $5 or below for Weiters would be worth the shot. I think the upside is there to make it worth the gamble.

[viper]

I haven't done it yet but I should run an analysis of 2 months of nothing & 4 months of Wieters compared to 6 months of the 17th best catcher. There has to be a point that Wieters is worth a bid and the question is just how much.

This kind of falls into my thoughts that Utley may be undervalued in some leagues. Assuming Utley plays 5 months, what you really get in most leagues is 5 months of Utley plus 1 month of a replacement middle infielder. That has a dollar value of more than Utley will come up with alone.

[Mosey]

If your back up plan is a -$4 second catcher like Henry Blanco or Jason Kendell yeah, even a $0 with upside is better.

If you only have one catcher position, probably depends on your drafting strategy. Are you going risk and reward (then yes) filled with Chris Volstad $4 pitchers and Chris Perez closers or are you going slow and steady (then no).

I say grow a pair and draft him, but I seriously doubt you get him for $1. Nearly every projection outlet has him as a top three catcher and so full of hype it is making Alex Gordon blush. Someone has a big chubby for him if you are skeptical and will go at least $5 and probably more.

Remember you don't get to draft against your doubts and wants and projections you draft against everyone elses.

[viper]

I agree that he is going for more than a few buck in every projection but I suspect they all assume he can be replaced until he comes up. He will probably end up going for almost the cost of a 2nd tier catcher in my two AL only leagues. I sort of hope there is a bidding war on him - one in which I will not enter. But if the price is right ...