CVRC Help Todd

[Black Sox]

Todd,

Here is my orginal post with my settings. Thanks again for your help!

QUESTION

Anyone been having problems getting CVRC for hitters vs pitchers to match up. I like to run each and then create a new excel with both and sort 1-230. MY hitters seem to fall realisticly but pitching value just seems completely out of whack. In my league type the highest closer value is $5, I understand in a shallow league that closers might be worth a little less, but it drops them soooo far it's not even close. Even elite to good starters seem overpriced causing hitter that you know are going to go in rounds 1-6 too drop too far throwing the balance off completly. I've tried playing with the settings and nothing seems to be working.

Hitting - HR 1.35 RBI 1.1 SB .05 BA .08 Runs 1 Player Pool 140 .270 BA default 69% hitting
Pitching All 1's with a player pool of 90 ( have tried adjusting many ways with no result). Would think that the ERA/WHIP would be adjusted for rthe fact my league is so shallow, but I don't know that for sure, I've tried running it a bunch of ways. Just looking for a way for hitters and pitchers to be comparable.

[Todd Zola]

assuming you get to 90 via 10 teams with 9 on a roster, I just ran it in the latest CVRC and have Rivera at at 12, Nathan and Papelbon at 10, Broxton 9, Bell 8 etc.

What do you feel the top guys will go for?

[Black Sox]

If I had to answer I would say $24 - $20 for the top few closers then steadily down from there. What I'm trying to do is after running both the hitters and pitchers combining them into one list 1-230 and breaking it into rounds of 10 players, to help establish pockets of value. I feel the CVRC does that independent of pitching, once pitchers are added and sorted it messes up the overall rank if you combine the two lists with my settings you'll see what I mean. In most mocks I've done top 3 pitchers go in round 2-4 then the next real wave occurs in rd 7 at which point closers are also selected. I'm just looking for a more realistic blending of hitters and pitchers, if possible.

Thanks

[AllstonRockCity]

One quick fix might be change the % of your budget your allocating towards pitching. Your drafting anyway, so the dollar amounts themselves are abritrary, its the gaps in 'dollar value' between the players that your concerned with, and that will not change. Keep your budget at $260, but change hitting to 50% and then pitching to 50%. It might not be as scientifically accurate, but it would help get you to where you need to be in terms of grouping the players. If the groupings still don't work out the way you'd like, move it 5% at a time in either direction until your happy.

I'm sure Todd will have a better reply, but its something for you to play around with until then. You might like the results.

[Todd Zola]

Id this any better? For the REAL answer, see the other question you posted about drafting tips

SPLIT .72 and .28
Wins=.5, Saves=3.5, K=3.5

ROUND 1
Ramirez, Hanley
Pujols, Albert
Braun, Ryan
Kemp, Matt
Mauer, Joe
Rodriguez, Alex
Wright, David
Utley, Chase
Longoria, Evan
Ellsbury, Jacoby
ROUND 2
Tulowitzki, Troy
Fielder, Prince
Crawford, Carl
Lincecum, Tim
Howard, Ryan
Cabrera, Miguel
Pedroia, Dustin
Reynolds, Mark
Sandoval, Pablo
Martinez, Victor
ROUND 3
Halladay, Roy
Haren, Dan
Holliday, Matt
Werth, Jayson
Sizemore, Grady
Teixeira, Mark
McCann, Brian
Zimmerman, Ryan
Sabathia, C.C.
Rollins, Jimmy
ROUND 4
Youkilis, Kevin
Vazquez, Javier
Reyes, Jose
Kinsler, Ian
Choo, Shin-Soo
Abreu, Bobby
Hunter, Torii
Greinke, Zack
Hernandez, Felix
Jones, Adam
ROUND 5
Jeter, Derek
Phillips, Brandon
Markakis, Nick
Roberts, Brian
Upton, Justin
Suzuki, Ichiro
Santana, Johan
Hill, Aaron
Bay, Jason
Wainwright, Adam
ROUND 6
Napoli, Mike
Lind, Adam
Votto, Joey
Zobrist, Ben
Lee, Cliff
Lee, Carlos
Hamels, Cole
McLouth, Nate
Rivera, Mariano
Beckett, Josh
ROUND 7
Gonzalez, Adrian
Lester, Jon
Martin, Russ
Verlander, Justin
Jimenez, Ubaldo
Victorino, Shane
Upton, B.J.
Cano, Robinson
Nathan, Joe
Papelbon, Jonathan
ROUND 8
Morales, Kendry
Broxton, Jonathan
Nolasco, Ricky
Ethier, Andre
Granderson, Curtis
Ramirez, Aramis
Lee, Derrek
Peavy, Jake
McCutchen, Andrew
Ramirez, Manny
ROUND 9
Soto, Geovany
Bell, Heath
Cruz, Nelson
Ibanez, Raul
Bartlett, Jason
Carpenter, Chris
Posada, Jorge
Beckham, Gordon
Johnson, Josh
Suzuki, Kurt
ROUND 10
Kubel, Jason
Soria, Joakim
Cain, Matt
Stewart, Ian
Pence, Hunter
Bourn, Michael
Harden, Rich
Billingsley, Chad
Burnett, A.J.
Gallardo, Yovani

[Black Sox]

Todd,

I understand your point about why I shouldn't care, but thank you for taking the time to do it.

Question - Are the setting for ERA/Whip left at 1 ?
As for hitting did you leave those settings on the deafault?

Semi - related question - Do you think the defaults on BA/ERA/Whip need to be changed based on my league size of 10 teams? Since my replacement level player is greater than the norm, or does it all just even out in the end?

Thanks

[Todd Zola]

Todd,

I understand your point about why I shouldn't care, but thank you for taking the time to do it.

Let me back off a little on the "shouldn't care". This is not something that happens overnight. I've been doing this a long time and sometimes I need to be reminded what has become intuitive for me is not so intuitive for others and they need things like values to align. So don't FORCE yourself into anything that is uncomfortable because some schlep on a message board that is a "so-called" expert says "screw values."

Question - Are the setting for ERA/Whip left at 1 ?
As for hitting did you leave those settings on the default?

Yes, the other settings were left as is and the hitting remained at what I have as the default settings for 2010.

Semi - related question - Do you think the defaults on BA/ERA/Whip need to be changed based on my league size of 10 teams? Since my replacement level player is greater than the norm, or does it all just even out in the end?

The number is calculated internally from the data pertaining to your pool so it adjusts to the 10-team league automatically. That said, it is an EMPIRICAL determination, it has no basis in logic other than I found a formula that pretyt well estimates the ratio of the last place team using the player pool for that league. So you should always feel free to input the actual ratio, ratio referring to any rate stat like BA, ERA and WHIP.

[Black Sox]

Thanks again for the help. I guess sometimes I do these exercises just to try to look at things from a different perspective. Kinda like when you read the same golf tip for a few different people, the information is always the same, it's just the presentation that changes.

I wanted to know, if you'll play along with my exercise looking at the list that was generated, can draft value be obtained? What I mean is that as an example someone like I.Kinsler has generated a 4th round status, now we both know I'd need to take him in the 2nd round to roster him. Does that mean I'm losing "value" by selecting him the 2nd or is this a case of me bending information that it's become hazardous to my health!

[Todd Zola]

I wanted to know, if you'll play along with my exercise looking at the list that was generated, can draft value be obtained? What I mean is that as an example someone like I.Kinsler has generated a 4th round status, now we both know I'd need to take him in the 2nd round to roster him. Does that mean I'm losing "value" by selecting him the 2nd or is this a case of me bending information that it's become hazardous to my health!

Here's the think with Kinsler, it is just like what I said about Chipper. Kinsler's projection reflects the fact he has missed 15-30 games the past several seasons. If he played those games at the same performance level he did when he was on the field, we'd have a top-10 overall player. And if you add in a replacement for that time, while you may suffer a bit with batting average, you gain ample counting stats to reap a top-20 or 25 player COMBINED from that lineup spot. So while in a vacuum, Kinsler returns 4th round numbers, if he plays OR if he gets hurt and you can plug in a replacement, you have the equivalent of a 1st or 2nd rounder. Do you take him in round 2? I do, for sure if he is available. And to help me insure maximum production, I do what I can to have my utility be a second baseman, so I can slide that player into 2B and pick up the best available free agent or I look for someone like Schumaker with dual 2B and OF eligibility and use him in the OF until Kinsler gets hurt, then move him to 2B and replace him with an OF, as there will surely be better OF available than 2B.