Neftali Feliz and the Art of HR/9

[brooklyn49]

Neftali Feliz, a $2 pitcher in a standard 5 x 5 format, and a $3 pitcher in a K/9 variant, becomes an $11 pitcher if HR/9 is substituted in as a category. Although I haven't run a detailed assessment to measure the variance, it seems to me HR/9 has a disproportionate impact on player valuation relative to other pitching categories. Even in a funky 9 pitching category league such as mine, its HR/9 that drives value. Is it just me or does anyone else feel the same? If so, should we be discussing a weighting for pitching categories similar to those for hitting categories?

[Todd Zola]

It likely has more to do with the replacement for HR/9, making the value out of whack.

If you can give me some more details, I can play around and see what I can come up with.

Which, as an aside, is why I do not release the 10x10 CVRC I have anymore, as I have not properly tested it for all categories.

The method we need to use to get replacement in an automated system may not be reflective of the true replacement.

So as a trade-off, I have always volunteered to derive values for these special leagues and will continue to do so.

[brooklyn49]

I was referring to the results using the standard CVRC in addition to the 10 x 10.

[Todd Zola]

Dang, that's right. I do have HR/9 on that.

Same explanation holds true.

If you post your parameters, I will see if I can come up with a reasonable replacement.

FWIW, what I usually do is set the calculation up "the old way" and see what the replacement turns out to be. I am 100% convinced this is the issue and you may be able to solve it on your own by inputting your league's historical Hr/9 for the typical last place team.

[rotodog]

My own FWIW..

Todd is right. I have played HR/9 leagues in the past and have always used the last place team as replacement to derive values . This is using CRVC type tool or running old school valuations.

One reason I do not trust many other valuation calculators out there with Non standard categories, is because I dont know what they are using as replacement or how they derive the values. if you can manually enter a replacement level, that's the perfect scenario. Even Rotolab which is a fine tool and you can tweak the crap out of it. But with categories like w%, HR/9 , K/BB ratio, I was never able to get an answer about how those Non standard ratio categories were valued..

One thing I have learned: when HR/9 is replacing some other category like K's , it can alter values pretty good.....A traditional 5 x 5 pitcher like Aaron Cook might be worth $1.... When you replace k's with HR/9, he might be a 6 or 7 dollar pitcher because his value is no longer being penalized for the lack of K's and gets a bump for the HR/9 ratio...

In a league like 6x6 when you simply add a HR/9 category, the valuation differences are not that dramatic...in a 10x10, even less dramatic..

[lawr]

chuckle. i hardly ever use that stat, save in strat.

but, i saw neftali's debut and he was deadly. with a capital DEAD. check out my comment in our magazine.

he complete rocks.