Deep League - Stars/Studs v Spread The Risk

[blue]

I play in a very deep league, 14 TM, NL only, 5x5, auction, 10% inflation, no reserve list, more than 90% league penetration (95% for hitters) and would like advice on handling 2 high priced potential keepers, Utley $36, Fielder $30. Generally, I would prefer a spread the risk scenario for my team (risk spreading) but have found that in a league this deep finding enough stats is often an issue. What I have found is that full-priced stars are often a better choice than marked up second, third and fourth tier guys. I anticipate spending $190 to $195 on hitting and would like your thoughts on these guys in particular and more generally the question of roster construction in a deep league environment.

For the purposes of this thread assume that I can't trade either of these guys and that a no keep decision is a drop decision and that the question is addressed to the hitting side of the equation only.

Steve

[cwk1963]

I'd certainly keep both of them. Utley may be a little over the inflated value but Prince is below. Putting the values aside, you have to lock up those kinds of stats.

[viper]

I would keep them also.

I have a question for you. You say your hitting is 95% deep. Because you didn't indicate anything other than normal for the number of active hitters, I assume you start the typical 14. Dropping catchers from the equation, that means 12 non-catching position players. Your league would start 168 of these players. This means your league would start every single of the actual 112 MLB starters (16*7) and 56 of the backups/reserves. That strikes me as more than 95%. I can only assume you penetration number includes all rostered players. That even moreso makes me say you should keep those two studs.

I might be wrong but I always thought that 100% depth refers to starters on the field, not to include those in the dugout.

[Todd Zola]

First -- no brainer to keep both. They are under value w/o inflation in a league of this nature.

League penetration usually refers to the entire player pool.

There are 16 NL teams, let's say on the average, 13.5 hitters per 25 man roster.

16 x 13.5 = 216

League has 14 teams x 14 roster spots = 196

196/216 = 91%

I used 13.5, the number of hitters may be lower.

The exact number does not matter. The point is the league is as deep as it gets.

[AllstonRockCity]

The AL-Only league I play in is just as deep as this. In July when you go to "free agent hitters" there's somewhere between 12 and 18 names on the list.

When doing Stars and Scrubs, its the 'scrubs' side of the equation that comes into play in a league this deep. Some, if not most, of your scrubs end up anchored to the pine, DFA'd or DL'd for extended periods of time. Then what do you do? You have 18 total players to choose from. maybe 5 are OF's, and you need 2 of them. Now your playing "Stars and extreme Scrubs". For this reason I too prefer more of a spread the risk strategy.

However.......

Your keepers are both really good and at good prices. I'd keep them both, leaving you with 2 options going forward.
1. just play spread the risk with your remaining dollars. (you have over $10 per spot on the average)
2. go hardcore stars and scrubs at the auction. then trade 2 of your stars for 4 'spread the risk' type guys and get your desired comfort level after the auction, not during it. After all, the market is what the market is. If thats the opportunity that presents itself, go for it.

[blue]

Thank you for all responses so far!

We do roster two catchers also.

In our league, the hitting pool consists mainly of 2nd and 3rd string catchers, 5th OFs and backup middle infielders. Further, under our rules priority availabilty of pool guys go to teams suffering a DL that week (higher to lower auction day salary in terms of ordering).

Last, in terms of potential keepers, my only other potential keeper is Drew Stubbs at 15. I would only consider keeping him if he wins the job (and the Reds lose Willy T). Thoughts?

Steve

[blue]

To All:

I reviewed the posts so far and the responders have indicated that I should definitely keep Utley at $36 under my league parameters. In this regard, I wanted to reference a thread that I started two weeks ago called "Leveraging Mastersball Projections" which is in "Team Management Advice" which got many responses and dealt with a situation where almost everyone in a league is using BBHQ projections as their primary valuation source (11 out of 14 league members at least). I asked how to use Mastersball numbers to my advantage. Under the HQ vauation engine Utley is a $28 guy under my league settings, yet I am being told that he's a definite for me at $36. I throw this out not because I necessarily disagree that he would be a bad choice at that number but to again ask the question about how I can use the HQ value to my advantage. Maybe the answer is that what HQ says doesn't matter. If I want to lock in Utley in a 14 TM, NL only, where great players are limited, just take him. Further thoughts are appreciated!

Steve

[Todd Zola]

Projections are projections.

If you ask on the HQ boards whether Utley should be kept, I GUARANTEE the "@HQ" guys would say yes.

But for obvious reasons, you can't ask.

So make up a similar situation in a 12-team AL only league. Think of a player similar to Utley in the AL that their engine values at $28 or so. Post you have him for $36 and see what they say.

If Kinsler were not injury prone, he would be the perfect choice.

You could use Pedroia and adjust the prices accordingly. Find out what their CDG says, add some bucks and see what they say.

[blue]

I go for a 40 minute run and I already have a reply. Thank you Todd!

My question is not so much whether a bunch of HQ contributors would say that Utley 36 makes sense but rather that does the fact that 11 leaguemates are looking at a valuation engine showing Utley 28 change my conduct. I could ask myself whether by throwing him back I have a chance to make up to $8 on him (or a similar player).

Steve

[Todd Zola]

Steve -- I guess my point is while there may be a bunch of HQ users, they are not all lemmings --- that is someone is bound to realize the $28 is a guide.

That said, there is nothing wrong with throwing him back and seeing if you can save some cash, so long as there are backup plans available for you to buy, especially in the middle/2B. If someone is willing to pay >$36, you ties his hands a bit with further pickups. But again, make sure there are ample available commodities you can get for the same $36 in case you don't get him cheaper.

Personally, I like knowing what I have in terms of stats in the bank and money left to spend so I can better formulate what I need to do. So I may prefer to freeze a guy like Utley and forgo the chance to get him cheaper as that better enables me to both plan and execute my winning strategy.

[drapes]

Personally, I like knowing what I have in terms of stats in the bank and money left to spend so I can better formulate what I need to do. So I may prefer to freeze a guy like Utley and forgo the chance to get him cheaper as that better enables me to both plan and execute my winning strategy.

Agreed 120%. Think acquiring stats first - staying within budget second. Not that you allow yourself to go over budget or leave yourself short cash for the endgame, but it's about acquiring stats, and Utely puts up a shit-ton of 'em... even for $36.

Last year I advised a guy to let Utely go due to the possibility that his hip injury might slow his start/sap his production.

Um right...

I'd take Utely to the bank all day... and all night...



and twice on Sundays.

[AllstonRockCity]

Blue,

Let me ask you something. How did you get Utley at $36 in the first place? Did you buy him at the auction for that much? Did someone else and you got him via trade?

If you can answer yes to either one of those questions then you have to keep him at that price. If he's already gone for $36, why wouldn't he fetch that much again. With another solid year under his belt and his record setting (tying?) post-season, you'd have to think $36 would be the cheapest he'd go for, in this scenario.

If his $36 price tag is a result of an extended contract, would you be able to share how much he went for and in what year prior to being 'extended'? The answer to this question may very well provide the same answer as the 1st questions.

[blue]

Under our league rules you can carry a guy over from year to year by adding $5 to his previous year's price. I actually acquired Utley at $11 all the way back in 2005 in a trade and have carried him over at $5 increments ever since. Utley has not been in our auction since 2005 and thus does not have a recent market price reference point. My guess is he goes for at least $36 although sometimes a high priced player can sneak through undervalue is they are brought up right at the beginning of the auction.

[AllstonRockCity]

i see. so we're right back where we started then.

that certainly was a good trade for you

[Guest]

Just to try to add to things a little bit - what is being protected at 2B? You say 10% inflation (which for a league that deep shocks me) but are we looking at a deep player pool where you could spend your 36 bucks easily or could you be looking at a situation where you're using the 36 bucks to chase less stats later just to fill out a roster?

I like having money at my auction, and usually throw back higher priced talent because I like spending it there. But I know the pool of guys I am going to spend it on.

I'm doubting Utley goes less than 36 in your league, so the real issue would only be if you'd really think 36 gets spent better elsewhere.

[blue]

Thank you for so many excellent comments. I was curious as to something that appeared in the last post, that of Gary J. Gary, Why are you surprised about only 10% inflation in a deep league like this?

Under our rules, a player can only be kept at plus $5 each year so unless you identify an extraordinary and surprising talent at a really cheap price at auction (in our league over 90% of the NL players are bought then) the 5 plus rule generally squeezes pretty much everyone off rosters fairly soon. All waiver and minor league guys go onto the roster initially at $10 and escalate similarly over time.

[Guest]

Because I was thinking of normal roto rules where you carry for 3 years unless you extend in the option year. I typically see these leagues in the 20-25% inflation range. You're squeezing out a good 10% of the inflation with that rule, so I def. see 10% in your scenario. My apologies, should have paid more attn to your rules.

FYI - this means I am assuming a lot of top end talent is available, even though I'd still keep Utley most likely, it might make the decision a bit more challenging.

[Todd Zola]

Just a general comment with respect to 10% inflation -- that's as good as no inflation. It will be sucked up after the first couple of buys. If people treat inflation linearly, and assume every player should cost 10% more, you will be in a deflated economy soon and that presents buying opportunities -- which may play towards dropping Utley if that means you can use that $36 to but 2 $25 players.

Now, I am not saying DROP UTLEY.

I am saying KNOW THY LEAGUE.

Do you have results of previous auctions? At what point is it a buyer's market? At the point where you can

A. Still get a quality 2B
B. Get a larger return on your $36 than Utley will provide?

I too was offering the "keep Utley" advice based on more typical keeper league inflation where he would nudge into the 40s.

[50 Desert Eagles]

Sounds like this WOULD be the season to trade Utley with the $36 price tag.....IMO. Maybe a Zobrist at half that.

[blue]

An interesting comment from Todd on 10% inflation being almost no inflation - In counterpoint in this league and others I have played I have noticed that guys that come out in the first few picks, typically high priced guys, often go for very good prices relative to their value. I like to call it the early auction caution syndrome. People get concerned that $40 is $40 even if the buy gets you Pujols. What i have seen is that the relative caution on some of the stars early becomes the overbuy on the the remaining 3rd or 4th tier guys two or three hours into the auction. Exploiting this tendency has been especially important to me in a very deep league.

[cwk1963]

An interesting comment from Todd on 10% inflation being almost no inflation - In counterpoint in this league and others I have played I have noticed that guys that come out in the first few picks, typically high priced guys, often go for very good prices relative to their value. I like to call it the early auction caution syndrome. People get concerned that $40 is $40 even if the buy gets you Pujols. What i have seen is that the relative caution on some of the stars early becomes the overbuy on the the remaining 3rd or 4th tier guys two or three hours into the auction. Exploiting this tendency has been especially important to me in a very deep league.

I think this early auction caution syndrome is relative to who is in the pool for the auction. If there are not many studs or very few at any particular position I think the cash will fly early if the studs are brought up - people won't be faked out.