My New Strategy

[NateinSpringfield]

I have for a long time been part of a NL-Only Auction league (5x5 weekly 23-man) that allows a team 3 keepers from year to year. Most years I have ended up via trade or good/lucky drafting 3 guys that would give me direction on the draft day for the following year. This year i really don't have that and some of my keeper options are; Hitters - Blanks/2, Gamel/7, E. Cabrera/4, G. Jones/3, Maybin/9 Pitchers - Baily/5, Arroyo/7 and De la Rosa/2.

Now I am not asking for which guys I need to keep, b/c instead of basing my strategy off of my keepers, this year I think I want to base my keepers off of my strategy. For the past three years I have employed the LIMA plan successfully on draft day, but also for the last three years I have been playing second fiddle to the same guy when the season is over. More owners are also starting to employ the LIMA strategy and therefore making it harder to do the same, but perhaps easier to do something different.

Just like in most leagues BA goes for the highest dollar. After that in this league people spend on speed for some reason, just how it is. I guess most think that is the one stat that you can count on barring injury. Saves are relatively easy to get on draft day, second tier closers usually go for 12-17 dollars depending when they are put on the table. Essentially what I want to do is throw my strategy out there and have you guys pick it apart and give me some insight beyond what I am seeing myself.

I want to in essence "punt" batting average, well not punt but put lower on the pecking order of worries. Offensively I want to be able to pick up a lot of counting stat collectors that are blackballed b/c of their average disparages. Also I see this as giving me the option to go the extra dollar on all of my pitchers that have a little more reliability and better ERA/WHIP.

Possible offensive targets - OF / Dunn, Bruce, Willingham, Ross, Fowler, Gomez, Maybin - CI / Reynolds, Stewart, Gamel, Bonifacio - MI / Uggla, Weeks, Ryan

Pitching would then be dependent on what my offense allows me to afford and how the auction is going.

I realize that not getting saves on draft day and not picking up BA is not the same thing b/c you can buy saves as the season goes on FAAB wise but you dig a hole in the BA. I just feel that I need to change up what I predictably do during the auction to give me a chance at knocking off the top dog. The reason that I even considered this strategy is the third place finisher last year ended 1.5 points behind me and came in dead last in saves, showing that you can successfully punt a category in our league. I just know it would be cheaper on draft day to not worry about filling up BA than it would be to not fill up saves.

Thoughts please...

[Todd Zola]

Some thoughts, most general, a couple more specific....

While, as you say, it is possible to compete and even win while punting a category, I strongly prefer to leave this as a last resort during the season if and only if the situation dictates this to be my best way to maximize points. This is even more so in a keeper league as someone is likely to have good keepers, a good draft, make good trade or two and thus be able to compete across the board.

That said, during an auction in an AL or NL only format, I have no issue not caring very much about steals and/or saves. My research has demonstrated that the single most important category in which to excel is HR. So I focus on power, picking up some steals along the way. I look to stash a quiet source in reserve, such as Dexter Fowler last season. During the season, if the standings dictate, I can deal for a SB specialist and make up a slew of points. Else I am fine with middle of the pack. With respect to saves, I actually like to get a closer in the auction and then supplement with decent set up guys that get a handful or troll the free agents.

BULLY HITTING, MANAGE PITCHING.

Personally, I would not punt batting average, because there is simply no way you can do a 180 and decide to try for at least some points. You can always deal for a big SB guy or a closer, but there is no equivalent in average. That said, I don't really track it during the auction. I figure if I buy good players, I buy good batting average. Then I play the tit-for-tat game. If I get Dunn at a good price, I look to counter that with someone like Placido Polanco or Martin Prado, guys with plenty of at bats, good average, but perhaps cheaper because they lack the attractive counting stats. Similarly, if I get one of those guys cheap, I will then look to balance with a guy that gets a bunch of HR or SB (whichever I need) but with a low batting average.

With respect to pitching, the originator of LIMA himself, Ron Shandler will tell you the strategy is best suited for the old-school 4x4 style of play as a key element is minimizing innings which is detrimental in 5x5 as that impacts two categories, wins and strikeouts. However, it is never a bad idea to use LIMA filters to help identify safer pitching in any format.

I have had a good deal of success in NL only play by buying as many at bats as I can, then focusing on pitchers with favorable home parks and a bunch of high-K middle relievers. This assumes a reserve list which is not always the case. But I am not sure I would deviate too much even without a reserve list.

[rotodog]

I am very familiar with NL only formats...

I read everything you mentioned but have a couple questions:

How Active is trading in the league? Is it possible to punt Saves on draft day only and acquire them via trade when owners start dumping?

Do you have a decent size reserve bench? This will also help me give you my thoughts..

Can you give me an idea from your experience , what players like DUNN and other Low BA Slugger go for on draft day. Also include some price info for a so called Batting Average guy that the league overpays for.. Is the League overpaying for BA or simply overpaying for players that have High batting avgs, and power and speed...Your basci 5 category stud that just happens to have a high Batting avg...

As far as pitching goes, does the fact that every one is doing LIma depress SP on draft day and do Middle Relievers go for way more than the 1-2 dollar they should because everyone is going after them?

[NateinSpringfield]

How Active is trading in the league? Is it possible to punt Saves on draft day only and acquire them via trade when owners start dumping?

Trading is active among some owners, but not all - there is no guarantee that what you need will be available even if you are giving up value to get it. FAAB'ing new closers or prospecting on draft day are about the only way to pick them up.

Do you have a decent size reserve bench? This will also help me give you my thoughts..

We don't have a traditional reserve bench. The only way you can put someone on your reserve is if they go on the DL or get sent to the minors. You can't "stash" minor leaguers on draft day either, we are old school and go with the 25 man roster rule and usually draft the Saturday after the season starts.

Can you give me an idea from your experience , what players like DUNN and other Low BA Slugger go for on draft day. Also include some price info for a so called Batting Average guy that the league overpays for..

Dunn/20, Uggla/13, Reynolds/16, Ross/14,

Pujols/47, HanRam/41, CLee/32, Rollins/35

I know those aren't strictly avg. guys, those are the studs, but they are comparative counting numbers w/out Avg compared to guys w/.

As far as pitching goes, does the fact that every one is doing LIma depress SP on draft day and do Middle Relievers go for way more than the 1-2 dollar they should because everyone is going after them?

Since we are a 5x5 I guess i don't think of a strict LIMA but apply it to just SP and not the picking up more than 1 MR that is a closer prospect. I think if I have the flexibility to go the extra dollar or two on my pitchers it may be worth it.

[rotodog]

With those rules and league tendencies, I will pretty much piggy back on what Todd said...

With no reserve list and no guarantee that you may be able trade for what you need, I wouldnt look to punt any category at all on draft day.. I wouldnt look to punt BA on purpose, but as Todd said, maybe you dont try to track it precisely. If You are going to Roster a few HR , low avg types, I would look to fill in around them with a few lower cost avg helpers or speedy guys.

The Prado's , Coughlan's, Polanco's, Matt Diaz, Schumakers... If these guys remain fairly cheap on draft day, I could easily see you rostering a Legit 5 category stud or 2, along with a few Low avg sluggers and then filling in with the others..

As Far as pitching goes, I personally like to have STUD strike out pitcher and 2 mid tier closers if closers like this go cheap as you say. If the difference for a top 5 NL closer and a low-mid tier closer is only five bucks, then I might spend the extra 5 bucks for a Top 5 option and buy one on the low end...But it depends on what I see on draft day.

With 1 legit stud and two cheap closers in the 12-15 dollar range, I like to fill in cheaply the rest....Jorge Delarosa , jason hammell types. Maybe even Harang if the discount is steep enough... I might add One cheap Power MR to the mix...I would prefer one on a team with a shaky closer situation or a team with a closer that could easily be traded at deadline...Heath Bell type.... Gregorson, Mike Adams MR types that wont kill you in the K dept and have a shot at a few saves if the closer changes.

During the season, you always have Faab to pick up new closer possibilties and replace ineffective starters you bought cheap...I mean, if a 2 dollar pitcher like Jason Hammel isnt pitching to your liking, cut him loose...You only paid 2 bucks...

If you have 3 quality keepers under value, I would continue building a strategy around them and readjusting to your plan as you have done in the past.

1 STud SP 30
2 Mid tier closers 30
1 Decent MR 1-2 dollars?

If you can spend another 10-15 bucks on the remaining 4 pitchers you need, that leaves you about 185-190 on Hitting...

Depending on your keepers and cost, you can plan around them and adjust ..

Aside of Pujols at 47 , if you can own a Stud like HanRam at 40 bucks in a an NL keeper and the rest of the studs prices fall from 40, you could easily Buy two 4-5 category studs, 5 of the cheap low avg sluggers and fill in cheaply with the type of players I mentioned above..

I am assuming you have 3 decent keepers under value that you can adjust around..

One last thing.....you mentioned the 3rd place team behind you punted saves....and wondering if you can do it. Remember, he still placed 3rd. Not 1st. Play to win, not cash a 3-4th place check in October. If you have placed 2nd the last 2-3 years as you mentioned, you are doing something right already. Aside of being a good player and drafter, the difference between 1st and 2nd in any given year comes down to good fortune and some luck....Keep drafting a team that puts you in a position to possibly take 1st every year and Play to win....

[NateinSpringfield]

I played around w/ last year results and last year predictions to see about putting together a "winning" team by going w/ my strategy and it was real easy to do using 2009 results but using my last set of predictions it was impossible... I was thinking about incorporating a SANTANA plan as you mentioned, but just depends on how things go on draft day with closers.

Another thing I failed to mention was we usually have at least one new team in the league that can mess up the dynamic of the auction if it is their first time in an auction, or the first time in an NL only. This year we will have 2 newbs.

[rotodog]

I played around w/ last year results and last year predictions to see about putting together a "winning" team by going w/ my strategy and it was real easy to do using 2009 results but using my last set of predictions it was impossible... I was thinking about incorporating a SANTANA plan as you mentioned, but just depends on how things go on draft day with closers.

Another thing I failed to mention was we usually have at least one new team in the league that can mess up the dynamic of the auction if it is their first time in an auction, or the first time in an NL only. This year we will have 2 newbs.

yeah,

Newbs can throw of some things you take for granted every year...You never know... There impact is still minor though...

My experience is that newbs to any league are typically slow to buy on draft day and when they get a feel for the flow of the draft and realize they need to spend, they start overpaying in the middle of the draft...
If the its a keeper team and the new team isnt loaded well, they tend to buy certain types of players like young or cheap...They overpay and chase rookies or consensus breakout players...

If its a guys first auction he may be in awe at first...if he is new, but an experienced Auction drafter, then these tendencies are minimized.

PS: What Springfield state do you live in? Just wondered..

[cwk1963]

I played around w/ last year results and last year predictions to see about putting together a "winning" team by going w/ my strategy and it was real easy to do using 2009 results but using my last set of predictions it was impossible... I was thinking about incorporating a SANTANA plan as you mentioned, but just depends on how things go on draft day with closers.

Another thing I failed to mention was we usually have at least one new team in the league that can mess up the dynamic of the auction if it is their first time in an auction, or the first time in an NL only. This year we will have 2 newbs.

My experience has been the opposite of rotodog in that newb's react to an auction like a kid in a candy store with a fistful of money. They go on a spending splurge like it's a never ending pile of cash and before they know it they've spent close to $200 on 4 guys. But either way, it does tend to artificially alter the dynamics of how the auction would go. You just have to be prepared for that and realize if the new guys spend at the beginning you'll have the middle and end to make a move. If they don't spend in the beginning, either they'll make up for it in the middle and end or be left with a bunch of useless money on paper. You'll have to recognize what's going on (like in any auction) and make the adjustments.

[Hambowen]

Yes to CWK's point.

I do feel like new people do sometimes control the auction even though they do not know they are doing it.

They can either do it by paying high on top guys or not understanding the player pool and not spending money looking for good values.

If I see the latter happening towards the middle part of the draft then I usually start spending on good value and just ignore the end game because that person is going to gobble up any good players left for whatever it costs at the end. Only way around this is to watch his roster and if he fills up somewhere then you can go back to targeting your end guy since he is out of the picture on him.

[Hambowen]

People paying for batting average is very different then what I usually see.

In a lot of my leagues i find that people pay value for the Power numbers and ignore the fact that bad BA depresses those stats. Dunn and others like him always go over my projections because of that reason. Guys like Polanco and other BA guys always offer $8-12 in value at the end for under $5.

Surprised to see a league this different. Always assumed power held the premium. This should really allow for you to dominate power cats if it is not the main focus of people looking for hitting.

[NateinSpringfield]

Like I said though, no matter how "perfect" of a team I come up with I am having a hard time coming up with a team whose numbers put me on top. I think this plan would work better in a deeper player pool, but a league-only is too shallow for me to come up w/ something that I am comfortable with. Oh well, back to my standard and hope the guy that keeps beating me runs into some injuries...

[da_big_kid_94]

Small parable - after last years auction in our 12 team 4x4 AL only, one of the guys had a computer program that projected standings at the end of the season. When all the teams were run through it, I was projected for 2nd place. Finished dead last - and it wasn't close. I honestly believe you can not go into an auction with the idea of punting any category - because you may wind up punting a different category that you never even conceived of. And you can't really adjust. Who knew Dice - K went to the Todd Helton school of Injury Disclosure prior to last year's World Baseball Classic? Or that the phone lines between the Indian front office and Columbus would be out for such a long time? Or that Liriano lost his stuff after TJ surgery, not finding it? Or other such things, like BJ Upton not realizing he wasn't actually producing and acting like he was? Some things can't be projected. If it can happen to you, it can happen to the guys in front of you.

[NateinSpringfield]

hey projections are what they are - You can't win your league on draft day but you can lose it...

You can say what you want about a "punting" strategy but it has been proven to work in some categories some years...

[cwk1963]

Small parable - after last years auction in our 12 team 4x4 AL only, one of the guys had a computer program that projected standings at the end of the season. When all the teams were run through it, I was projected for 2nd place. Finished dead last - and it wasn't close. I honestly believe you can not go into an auction with the idea of punting any category - because you may wind up punting a different category that you never even conceived of. And you can't really adjust. Who knew Dice - K went to the Todd Helton school of Injury Disclosure prior to last year's World Baseball Classic? Or that the phone lines between the Indian front office and Columbus would be out for such a long time? Or that Liriano lost his stuff after TJ surgery, not finding it? Or other such things, like BJ Upton not realizing he wasn't actually producing and acting like he was? Some things can't be projected. If it can happen to you, it can happen to the guys in front of you.

Or my pet peeve - the Twinkies insisting on playing Jose Offerman instead of Justin Morneau .

[NateinSpringfield]

or trading what you think is a hot start in Ryan Zimmerman and a $2 Edgar Renteria to the team that has the suddenly severely injured Aramis Ramirez for a then healthy Jose Reyes - I got a total of 27 AB out of Reyes before hitting the season ending DL...

Or trading Adam Dunn and Yunel for David Wright, right before the All-Star break thinking that Wright can plausibley right the ship in the second half and hit as many HR as Dunn w/ a better average and a couple steals and of course Dunn's numbers will come back down to earth the second half...

and after getting rid of 3 outstanding players over the course of the season I still finished second...

[viper]

how you play the game after the draft can be underrated. I looked at Shawn Childs NFBC draft last year. It seemed to be average. He came in third overall. I'm all but convinced he could take any reasonably drafted team and make an overall contender out of it. Maybe I give him too much cred but he has a track record as good as anyone.

I agree that you cannot win a league at the draft table. I also believe it is very possible to lose a league at the draft table. But results like Shawn's make me think anything is possible. Last season I was, not obsessed with, but highly interested in how my team projected. I hope I do not do that this season.

[da_big_kid_94]

Or my pet peeve - the Twinkies insisting on playing Jose Offerman instead of Justin Morneau .

Was wondering if you were going to bring that up. Now all we need is for Bod to contact the spirit of Cal Pickering, Steve B to stick another pin in his Sabean doll and another missive from poet laureaite Schildkrotte and we're all set.

[cwk1963]

Or my pet peeve - the Twinkies insisting on playing Jose Offerman instead of Justin Morneau .

Was wondering if you were going to bring that up. Now all we need is for Bod to contact the spirit of Cal Pickering, Steve B to stick another pin in his Sabean doll and another missive from poet laureaite Schildkrotte and we're all set.

What a motley crew that is - including me .

[Todd Zola]

Paging whitesoxredux (or whatever his name was)

[da_big_kid_94]

Paging whitesoxredux (or whatever his name was)

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! What's next .. KC Cubs and Baylor?