This year's breakouts and unknowns...

[Black Sox]

Looking for people's opinion on who they think are going to outperform their current late round status and really breakout. Just looking for people's gut instinct ( not that B.Butler will hit 30 HR since he hit 52 doubles ) players that are going late or undrafted that will make a real impact before all is said and done ( ie B.Wood J.Foxx M.Laporta etc..) !

[Todd Zola]

I'm going to ask a serious question, not trying to be a wise ass or holier than though. Depending on the answer however, I may decide to be a wise ass or holier than though.

Why are you asking this question?

[Wrigley]

Todd,

Sounds like he's looking for sleepers

[Black Sox]

I'm asking the question because everyone having done there research has a player or players they just belive in, as an example Shandler is big on C.Ruiz ( stat's don't exactly back up his prediction but you tell it's mixed with his opinion ) Just wondering who that player is for others. For me personally I've started drafting so I'm constantly re eveluating the free agents and my bench to see if I can speculate.

I like it when people go out on a limb and make a prediction, not just a simple uptick in what a player did the year before. It might have been wrong but people speculated on C.Davis M.Jacobs and M.Kemp. I like to hear who other people feel strongly about. Anyone can draft players based on 3 year avg or a duplication of last years stats.

[Black Sox]

Todd,

Sounds like he's looking for sleepers

Not sleepers in the true sense. I want to know who people are going with their gut and taking a stand on to outperform what most people think.

[Todd Zola]

Okay, I won't go holier than though and I won't be a wise-ass.

I'll let people share their opinions.

Carry on

[AllstonRockCity]

Well, if you check out the "slow mock draft" you can see some picks that make you go "Whaaaaahhhhh?!?!?!" Anytime you see one of those, read the thread explaining the pick. This will give you not only the players that answer your question, but how others feel about that player and why people love/hate him.

as for my own such players, I can't tell you yet, but I'm going to draft 1 or hopefully 2 of them real soon.

[lawr]

i think you are looking for sleepers, though.

those are guys who are undervalued, or overlooked, right?

i told todd this morning two of the guys i like are cliff pennington and landon powell.

[Todd Zola]

okay, here is where I am coming from when I asked "WHY?" before.

I believe you are sort-changing the need for a "reason" and are doing yourself a disservice if you don't want one. You're better than that.

Now, the reason does not have to involve and advanced level calculus, but it should be something more than a Ouija board answer.

Something as simple as Brandon Wood -- showed huge power in the minors, started to strike out less last year and nas vener really been given a legit shot in the majors.

Whatever.

Just saying the reason does not have to be scientific. It can be anecdotal. There just needs to be a reason.

[Todd Zola]

By means of example, I trust Lawr doesn't mind...

This is the e-mail he sent me about Pennington and Powell. The "given" in the note is I know that he scores the A's games for MLB, so I know he isn't just shooting from the hip. He saw these guys last season.

the steal sleeper pick in the al this year is cliff pennington in my view. and, landon powell could also be very good. if they spell suzuki, and powell could play some first. 32 hits last year. seven taters.

The reason for Pennington is he could provide some real cheap SB a a full time SS.

The reason for Powell is Suzuki plays a TON of games. At some point, they have to cut back to help extend his career. And Powell showed some serious pop in the few chances he had.

[maddog]

not to be a wiseass.. somebody needs spell check

[Todd Zola]

not to be a wiseass.. somebody needs spell check

Don't make me search your posts for a typo -- because I will

[Mickey4081]

Are you looking for this year's Ben Zobrist? There simply is no friggan way anyone could've seen this career minor leaguer come into the Majors and mash Major League pitching...... Oh, hello, my name is Jason Bartlett...All of a sudden I have 15 hr power, can challenge for a batting title and steal 30 bases...... Hey there, my name is Aaron Hill and in case you haven't noticed, I can come really close to hitting 40 homers, don't tell me you didn't see that coming......Are you looking for someone to blow away projections? Well here I am, I'm Adam Lind. There's no way you thought I could put up MVP type numbers did you...well, I did. Hey, have you ever heard of me? I'm Marco Scutaro...at 34, I've come out of absolutely nowhere to put up solid fantasy numbers across the board.

The breakout could come from anyone anywhere at any age, who knows?

[lawr]

well, zobrist did show signs of the breakout towards the end of '08. the only think is so did ryan shealy.

but, hill and lind were definitely on the breakout list of most of the "experts" i know. the bbhq first pitch actually pointed to lind being a 30-plus homer guy last february.

the thing is, ideally if they (say, hq, but espn, yahoo, hell, even us) say this, then the guys really are not sleepers or under the radar any more.

i really think instead of looking for guys who will have a breakout, a smarter and more practical approach is to look for guys who were well thought of and then disappointed.

like asdrubal last year. or paul konerko coming off his horrible season a few years back.

the first year i played roto, in '88, i targeted tim laudner as a catcher. he had hit ten or so homers for the twins, but his batting average was .191 with 16 homers, and i knew the percentages were significant that he not play that poorly again.

i got him for like $2 (12-team, AL only) and he hit around .250 with 13 homers and more than earned his money for me.

not that you will win with a team of laudners, but, well, he is a good example of the point.

it is finding the jermaine dye's coming off crappy years and then delivering 35 dingers that is to me a sensible approach and gamble, and better path to finding high profit investments.

[whammer]

I know thw Twins just picked up thome, but Delmon Young might make some noise this year..

[da_big_kid_94]

I know thw Twins just picked up thome, but Delmon Young might make some noise this year..

Yes ...like the sound of a bat whipping through the air, hitting nothing.

[Black Sox]

Part of this is my fault for poorly wording my subject and first post. Maybe I can explain a little better and get this thread on the right track....

I have a lot of respect for the playing skill of the many people on this site. Shandler had an excellent blub in the forecaster this year saying in essence that if you did your projections based on 3 year averages you'd be right aprox 65% of the time. In his opinion the best projections get it right 70% of the time, which means were obssesed with the 5% difference. While I want Todd/Gary's projections I also want opinion, everyone has one. The projection can be based on facts, but when your on the clock, more often than not you'll go by your gut instinct. Nobody projected A Hill at 35 HR, but plenty of people made the point that he could beat his projection based on how he was trending before the concussion in 08. If everyone else projects 15-17 HR for Hill and you say I think he'll hit 25 and draft him accordingly, and he hits 35, both projections are " " wrong, but the higher number identified growth.

For me I'm looking at filling my bench with people like

L.Millage J.Fox M.Laporta B.Wood etc... ( but having trouble figuring out which have the best chance to explode)

Going into this year I think.....

A.Either is going to hit close to 40 HR
R.Nolasco will have a 3.50 ERA and K 200
T.Hanson will be stud ( unless ATL holds back his innings )
B.Webb will be a Top 10 P
J.Upton will be this years M.Kemp
J.Lester will compete for the AL Cy Young
J.Reyes will steal 35 - 40 bases
You'd have rathered taken A.Escobar/E.Andrus/E.Caberea for the price
B.Phillips will go 25/25 with a .295 BA
M.Weiters will be a top 5 C
J.Mauer will make his owners regret taking him in the 1st round
C.Quinten will be solid not AL MVP solid
J.Hamilton won't stay helathy enough to hit 30

[Black Sox]

I know thw Twins just picked up thome, but Delmon Young might make some noise this year..

No offense whammer but D.Young is fools gold each and every year. Tampa bay fleeced Min in that trade. Young's many problems include an inability to learn the strike zone and a ground ball % of 50%, oh and he's got speed but is a trerrible basestealer. He makes my blood boil, because he should have been soo much more! Love the quote from Bronx Tale " Nothing worse in the world than wasted talent".

[Kelly_Leak]

I may be a glutton for punishment, but I like Alex Gordon this year. He was pegged as a "sleeper" in many circles last year ... then he got injured and missed most of the season. He seems to fit into Lawr's "well thought of and disappointed" category. He has a decent batting eye and has crushed both AA and AAA pitching throughout his minor league career (including rehabs). I know it is unreasonable to project it, but I would not be surprised if a 2009 Ryan Zimmerman type season happened (with a few more SBs). There are some parallels: both play on crummy teams and bat in crummy lineups; they have similar GB/FB %s; they have similar LD %s; and until last year similar HR/FB %s.

In the NFBC slow mock currently taking place, Zimmerman went 2.12. Through 14 plus rounds, expectedly, Gordon is still available. Seems like a decent gamble if you need a 3Bman or CI.

[Todd Zola]

Black Sox -- I still say you are doing yourself a disservice if you don't have a reason and are going by gut. But my guess is there really is a reason and it is so instinctive or intuitive at this point that you don't recognize it as a reason.

For example, if someone were to ask you WHY do you think Ethier will hit close to 40 HR, what would be your response?


My contribution to this thread is Mat Latos, SP San Diego. I love the poise he showed at such a young age when he got his feet wet last season and there is no questioning his stuff. I like the fact he is backed by Petco though I don't like the fact he will likely be held down in terms of innings. Well, I like it if I have him in a keeper league, I don't like it if I am in a H2H league.

[lawr]

well, i don't really care about projections any more than i care about ADP.

i mean, i can look at a player's age, minor league history, overall experience, and major league experience and pretty much deduce whether or not that guy has maxed out his skill set in terms of production.

obviously i am wrong sometimes, but, as often as not, i am pretty close to right.

the thing is, it is foolish to predict a 10-15 home run spike in any player, just as it is foolish to expect zack grienke will win 20 games this year because he had his breakthrough last year. i mean, he could, but, well, maybe 3-4 guys win 20 a year, right? maybe.

i never, ever, ever, pencil anyone in when i am assembling a roster to hit more than 30 homers, to hit more than .300, to drive in more than 90 runs, or to steal more than 25 bases.

why? because all the above are very difficult to do.

additionally, if i set my targets on individual performance a little low, it forces me to really spread that performance out over fairly safe, and often boring bets. but, it also clearly encourages to get as many every day players as possible. which is a serious key to winning.

however, say i do get alex gordon (and he is a perfect example of a guy who will be undervalued, and, as such, if he hits .275-15-70, will likely be a serious bargain) for $5, and through the middle of june he is hitting .287-13-45, well, he has pretty much made what i projected for when i paid.

which means i can trade him, with some upside, for a player who can provide numbers where my team is derelict. and, at that point of the season, finding a player who can deliver a couple of homers and 25 more RBI is not insurmountable, so i get the production i needed from that particular slot, and now i can concentrate elsewhere to pick up other points.

the problem we have with the situation above is no one wants to take the money and run (just like with the stock market, or i suppose the poker table, people are hesitant to walk away with a modest profit, and instead continue to ride the play out, usually losing that profit).

that is the control and focus that i believe is required to win.

along with setting realistic expectations on production from your players.

[aburt19]

however, say i do get alex gordon (and he is a perfect example of a guy who will be undervalued, and, as such, if he hits .275-15-70, will likely be a serious bargain) for $5, and through the middle of june he is hitting .287-13-45, well, he has pretty much made what i projected for when i paid.

which means i can trade him, with some upside, for a player who can provide numbers where my team is derelict. and, at that point of the season, finding a player who can deliver a couple of homers and 25 more RBI is not insurmountable, so i get the production i needed from that particular slot, and now i can concentrate elsewhere to pick up other points.

the problem we have with the situation above is no one wants to take the money and run (just like with the stock market, or i suppose the poker table, people are hesitant to walk away with a modest profit, and instead continue to ride the play out, usually losing that profit).

that is the control and focus that i believe is required to win.

along with setting realistic expectations on production from your players.

It's just like everything else. When you keep the player who is outperforming the projection, sometimes you win and
sometimes you lost. Whoever had Scutaro, Hill, etc. might have been better off keeping them than trading them. There
are other cases where you would have been better off trading those types of players. The thing that makes most owners
not trade away such players is that they are in a keeper league. Trading an Alex Gordon, who you have for $5, is hard to
do if you have the capability to keep him and reap the benefit for more than one season.

[lawr]

true, but then they are not selling high.

the thing is to be successful--and winning any year, no matter the league is tough--you have to be able to let go of hoarding all the cheap pieces you have.

in tout last year i swapped sabbathia in august for howie kendrick and curtis granderson. kendrick was not even a starter (but i had a feeling, and i saw his final two months the year before).

that was a lot to give up, and, the end result was i won because of it.

and, note that is not a keepr format.

[JP Kastner]

I do believe it is possible to predict a breakout. I'll use my famous example:

Code: Select all

AG  AB   H 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG
23 557 165 12  5  0 296 320 336
24 691 199 29 13  4 288 330 385
25 680 223 37  6 31 328 366 537 

This is the classic case of a breakout. Could you see this coming? Anyone know who this is? (MB Staff cannot answer the question.) Only 10.3% of his hits went for extra bases at age 23. That increased to 23.1% at age 24, or a 224% increase.

He made the team out of spring training and played everyday his rookie year, so he must be pretty good. Finally, this was pre-steroid era. Well, we think it was pre-steroid era.

[Kelly_Leak]

I do believe it is possible to predict a breakout. I'll use my famous example:

Code: Select all

AG  AB   H 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG
23 557 165 12  5  0 296 320 336
24 691 199 29 13  4 288 330 385
25 680 223 37  6 31 328 366 537 

This is the classic case of a breakout. Could you see this coming? Anyone know who this is? (MB Staff cannot answer the question.) Only 10.3% of his hits went for extra bases at age 23. That increased to 23.1% at age 24, or a 224% increase.

He made the team out of spring training and played everyday his rookie year, so he must be pretty good. Finally, this was pre-steroid era. Well, we think it was pre-steroid era.

RIP Kirby Puckett???

[cwk1963]

I do believe it is possible to predict a breakout. I'll use my famous example:

Code: Select all

AG  AB   H 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG
23 557 165 12  5  0 296 320 336
24 691 199 29 13  4 288 330 385
25 680 223 37  6 31 328 366 537 

This is the classic case of a breakout. Could you see this coming? Anyone know who this is? (MB Staff cannot answer the question.) Only 10.3% of his hits went for extra bases at age 23. That increased to 23.1% at age 24, or a 224% increase.

He made the team out of spring training and played everyday his rookie year, so he must be pretty good. Finally, this was pre-steroid era. Well, we think it was pre-steroid era.

RIP Kirby Puckett???

[Hambowen]

Does there need to be a reason? Yes

Do I need to know that reason? Not really

I actually like to hear who people like more then others even if they do not give me a reason.

If a couple of people I respect on this forum like a certain player and I am coming to that decision to "go the extra $1" on them then I think I will. The fact that I respect the ability they have as a fantasy player is enough for me.

At last years First Pitch forum (where I met Todd for the first time) one of the "tips" was to go the extra $1 on Aaron Hill. Well in 1 situation I did not. Instead I let him go for $13 because I was pretty sure I could get Kelly Johnson(who I had rated equally) cheaper based on teams positions filled/money situations at the time. Well I was right and I got Kelly Johnson for $9 and saved myself $5. Not exactly the right move.

Point being there are a lot of equally projected player decisions we will all make at drafts and auctions. If a few seasoned players who I respect on these forums like someone when I need to make that kind of decision. Then I will go with their gut/analysis/eyeball/anything if I have those guys rated the same.

[JP Kastner]

Yeah, he's Kirby Puckett. No power for the first two years and then WHAM! It has happened with a number of other players. Alexis Rios, Joe Mauer and Jim Edmonds come to mind. If we could figure out what makes these players similar, we could in theory predict a breakout.

[Spread da wealth]

Casey Kotchman

Mostly a gut feeling. Sometimes I find myself "corroborating" my gut feelings by selectively remembering information. For example, I know I read somewhere recently that Safeco's right field might play well for Kotchman, allowing more homers than predicted. Because I already liked the guy, I stored that as a "fact" in my memory, happy to corroborate my gut.

I also think he's in a good playing time situation, with a regular gig on a team valuing infield defense. A former first round pick, he was starting to break out two years ago for the Angels when he was traded for Teixeira, before backtracking a bit with the Braves and having a bench role with the Red Sox. He's also a West Coast guy who might be happy to be back there.

So I guess I tend to go with a combination of gut plus selective confirmation of available info.

[Todd Zola]

Always have been a Kotchman fan but until he lifts the ball more, it doesn't matter what right field looks like

17.6 % LD

52.7 % GB

29.7 % FB

Plus Ryan Garko was signed so a platoon is possible.

[Kelly_Leak]

Thought this was an appropriate thread to toss out a few names pegged as sleepers from a former MBer, Jason Grey. Normally, I can't stomach ESPN fantasy content, but at least once a week (from Feb. through Oct.) I will search "Jason Grey" on their site and read anything free Jason may have out there. His list includes:
C - Yadier Molina
CI - Chris Davis
MI - Scott Sizemore
OF - Desmond Jennings
SP - Wade Davis
RP - Matt Capps

Here is a link to the whole article <http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseb ... 10sleepers>

Jason has specific write ups on Chris Davis, Wade Davis, and Matt Capps.

There is also a busts list, but that is for another thread.

[deansdaddy]

Always remember when looking at ESPN info that they often gear much of their analysis to the 10 team mixed format.

So sleepers there won't always translate to deeper leagues.

Agree though that Jason Grey does good stuff.

[rotodog]

I am going out on a limb here....

And I need it in print so i can not be disputed. I am predicting one Pitcher and one Pos player that nobody is mentioning anywhere. These two are out in left field and while I am sure the names are recognizable, I have not seen anyone touting them.. So here goes.

Matt Joyce RF Rays :

Can you say ben Zobrist? It looks as if he will be the FT RF . He came over last spring in the Edwin Jackson deal. Instead of giving him a job, they sent him to AAA to play the TB way...Well, he refined his approach, took the walks, and stole some bases....

If you look at Ben Zobrist progression through the minors and the way they used him in 2008 and 2009, it is very similar to Joyce. Ben Z was more patient from day one and K and BB rates were better, but Ben Z has become more aggressive over the last 2 years to the point where his rates are similar to Joyce. The doubles and HR are there for Joyce and the ISO tells you its possible... Joyce has the power...And last year in limited AAA time, swiped 14 bags..Speed score is becoming similar to Zobrists now...

Up in the Bigs with TB in 2010 with 550 Abs, It would not surprise me if He went "ALL BEN ZOBRIST" on the league. TB runs and plays a certain kind of ball. Given health and 550 Abs I see a .275 20 HR + 15 sbs campaign from him with poss 20/20.... There, I said it..

Pitcher I like to become Vintage Derek Lowe-ish? Jason Hammel ...he is not the pure Gb machine that Lowe is, but is a GB pitcher. K rates similar to Vintage Lowe and in 2009 took a big leap in the CTRL department. If he can continue to get the GB and maintains his 6+ K/9 and (this is the Biggie) Maintain his BB rate from last year, it is possible to have a sub 4 ERA with 15 wins and decent k rates.. Being a GB pitcher, and playing in front of the Rockies IF, he will be hittable..so the Whip isnt stellar, but if he maintains the BB rate, it is rosterable....

[deansdaddy]

I like the call on Joyce and think he makes a nice end game pick this year. The Rays definitely have incentive to give him a real shot to prove the Edwin Jackson trade wasn't a total fleece job by Detroit. Right now it looks like his main competition will be from Desmond Jennings - and with the Rays history of holding rookies back due to service time - I think Joyce will get a long look. Good Call!

[Todd Zola]

I have a sneaky feeling Zobrist ends up in right with Sean Rodriguez at 2B.

[rotodog]

I have a sneaky feeling Zobrist ends up in right with Sean Rodriguez at 2B.

I would rather Jason Bartlett break his wrist and arm, Reid Brignac have an anxiety disorder and Ben Z has to play SS for 20 games ..... So Joyce can stay in RF.... But pat Burrel is no guarantee with the DH bat, so I guess Joyce could DH if Ben Needed to play RF... While I am at it, I wouldnt mind if Ben Z caught 5 games in the beginning of the season too....

You see, I am a Ben Zobrist believer ....You either believe or think he will flop. No in betweens with him.. Kind of like the movie Napoleon Dynamite ... You either see the genius or you simply dont get it.... Count me as one that sees the genius..

[Todd Zola]

There is a lot to believe in with Zobrilla.

I just happen to believe in Rodriguez more than Joyce.

I think the most overrated anecdotal cliche in sports is "they have to play him to justify trading for him (or paying him $X)."

[rotodog]

I would love to see Sean Rodriguez succeed out of nowhere. I still own about 200 of his 2003 Upper deck Prospect premiers Rookie cards and about 5 of his Auto Rookie cards.... Would love to unload them as soon as he hits hos 20th HR on June 22nd.... Still own 2 Reid Brignacs auto Rc's too..Should of sold them when they were going for 70-80 bucks each 33 years ago....

[Todd Zola]

Rodriguez would by no means come out of nowhere.

I actually think the Angels kept the wrong guy.

[AllstonRockCity]

I really like that Joyce call. And mucho respect for putting it out there like that.

I also am a Sean Rodriguez believer. I'm with Todd when he says the Angles kept the wrong guy. I mean he lead all of AAA in HR last year, and he's a MIDDLE INFIELDER!!

But would a rotation at 2B, RF and DH between Zobrist, Joyce, SRod and Burrell (with Zobrist pretty much an everyday player) really be that bad of a situation for any of the players involved? Burrell is a Righty and Joyce is a Lefty, so that would kinda works out. Of course there is still Willy Aybar lurking to further muddy things.

[rotodog]

Thanks ARC..

the problem with Sean is that he has been around forever... And he is only 24 going on 25...

he can pound it...But my only reservation is the K rate.... I would really like to have seen some real consistent growth over the last few years...I know he has been Yo-yo 'ed for 3 years, but it is my only reservation...
Upside= Dan Uggla Which isnt all that bad...

[AllstonRockCity]

is being a 24 year old who's been around for a while really a bad thing? i think its a good thing. not many players get major league experience at 22 and 23. does the poor plate discipline result in him being yo-yoed or is it the other way around? chicken or egg?

growth would be nice to see and he hasn't shown it, so i can't argue with you there. but perhaps a little seasoning then a legit shot at 10-15ABs per week later in the year would be just what the doctor ordered.

[rotodog]

I actually meant the Problem with Sean rodriguez being around so long was in relation to why people have forgotten about him.. Not that it was bad for his development

I mean his rookie card is from 2003! 7 years ago...and he is still 24 years old... You can see how he got lost a bit for the speculators ...Any MI that can hit 30 bombs a season has value...Warts and all...

[joshua]

Strange. I have a team in my league named Blacksox that took Cliff Pennington. Gee, what a coinkidink.