Theoretical Poll #2 of 2010

[Guest]

Thoughts as always.

TO THOSE READING - SORRY FOR THE CONFUSION WITH THE QUESTION.

See My post and Todd's post a bit below.

[50 Desert Eagles]

I took No#2....this was hard and made me think I will reach somewhat, but not overboard, if a safe player is staring at me or for the same price I can reach for say Quentin over Carlos Lee...for the same pick/$$ I will take Lee...Now if its say Quentin or Span or Rios...I will reach and take Quentin....If I need an OF at that time and its right....so many what ifs here....

[Black Sox]

I took Yes. I do think you need to balance your safe picks with taking some calculated risks. Now I'm not taking S.Drew in the 2nd round ( couldn't resist ) but if you don't create value for yourself winning becomes harder. But I will say what some consider a risk others feel is a safe play. One example for me this year is T.Hanson. I love his ADP and upside ( a TON more than this site ), for me he's an example of before round 10 kind of risk, someone I personally feel strongly about. The rest for me comes toward the end of the draft/auction were I'm simply speculating rather than grabbing what I know will be available to had on the wire later in the year. An example was my last pick in my last draft was J.Heyward ( made before B.Cox comments ), if it doesn't work then he'll be sleeping with the fishes soon enough

[viper]

NO#2 here.

This is a bad question. Auctions and straight drafts are totally different animals.

My take in straight drafts is to draft safely in the beginning. Be more ambitious in the middle. And then in the latter stages fill in holes and also make selections based on possible future roles. I'm not saying that is what comes out but that is the plan. What I don't like doing is reaching too far. I don't want to pass on safe value for a player whose needs a career ear to barely get higher in the end of season valuations. The trick is to determine when the time is right for the player you project higher than the rest of the owners.

The example I recall is you are in the 7th round. You have a projection, that you really love, on a player who has been going in the 13th round. Your projections have him a round 7 player. You don't need to take him in round 7 and probably not in 8 or 9. But what about round 10. Or was it round 9. How much value do you need to get out of this player.

In auctions things change. I've become an overpay at the top and find my value at the end with the $1 players. I did four auction leagues last year and I normally had $8 to go and 8 players to get. I did well. I will go that way again this year.

[Guest]

Viper - apologies if you do feel it is a bad question. And auctions and drafts are a different animal (which I am working on site content to try and quantify/qualify a bit).

But the question is whether or not to pay for a player's upside. I am not addressing ADP and the like. I agree that you would likely take a slightly different approach depending on format but I'm not asking what I think you're questioning.

I am saying if two players have similar projections (in your head) - one has done it 3 times before, one never has but scouts/minor league record drool over him, are you more likely or less likely to go after the veteran with little upside to the projection or the upstart who could be the next Albert Pujols or the next Kevin Maas?

[viper]

understanding what you meant then I will always [99%] go for the proven player. To that end, I just about never draft a rookie. I want to see him prove it.

[Black Sox]

Guess I didn't understand the question, if were talking similar player then I want the proven player 9/10 times ( unless it's a bench player and then I want the upside). The 1 time is when I feel strongly about a paticular player ( m.kemp was one for me last year )

[Todd Zola]

Carlos Lee or Adam Lind?

Justin Upton or Matt Holliday?

Tommy Hanson or Javier Vazquez?

Francisco Cordero or Andrew Bailey?

[rotodog]

No# 2 for me.. I never chase upside! I am Mr steady and reliable. I will take upside when it falls that way, but I am almost never paying up for what might happen if all the stars align . You assume more risk, and even if you are right in paying for the upside, there is no profit potential...you got what you paid for in essence but assumed more risk..

[rotodog]

Carlos Lee or Adam Lind? Lind...And I love Lee at a price...

Justin Upton or Matt Holliday? Holliday all day long...

Tommy Hanson or Javier Vazquez? I am NOT (Edit) big on Javy in 2010, but I would take javy every day including Sunday

Francisco Cordero or Andrew Bailey? Ohhhh, Tough one.. Either way. Take one and move on....Its not like we are talking Broxton vs Hoffman here..

[Todd Zola]

Based on what I am observing from early drafts, I think there is little need to take big risks on the hitting side this season. In fact, I think with injuries being at an all-time high, you want to go safe with the sticks, get some flexibility to best deal with the inevitable DL stint.

However...

I find there are several intriguing risks to take with the guys that throw the ball for a living.

In no particular order...

Johan
Sheets
Harden
Hamels
Webb
Lilly
Dice-BB
Bedard
Ervin Santana

ADPs may change come March, but guys like Sheets and Harden are going at the same time the likes of Blanton, Happ, Pettitte, Floyd, Wolf etc. I'll take the upside guy there and populate my reserve with Latos, Romero, Bumgarner, Richard, etc.

[ayebatter]

I find there are several intriguing risks to take with the guys that throw the ball for a living.

In no particular order...

Johan
Sheets
Harden
Hamels
Webb
Lilly
Dice-BB
Bedard
Ervin Santana

ADPs may change come March, but guys like Sheets and Harden are going at the same time the likes of Blanton, Happ, Pettitte, Floyd, Wolf etc. I'll take the upside guy there and populate my reserve with Latos, Romero, Bumgarner, Richard, etc.

Gotta agree with ya here, I've been populating my rosters with most of those names this yr, and for the most part they've been relatively cheap in auctions and late round picks in snakes.

[AllstonRockCity]

Carlos Lee or Adam Lind?

Justin Upton or Matt Holliday?

Tommy Hanson or Javier Vazquez?

Francisco Cordero or Andrew Bailey?

i went with no #1. i want my big spends/early picks to be proven performers. but they don't quite have to be end-gamers for me to start wanting that upside. towards the middle, i'll look more towards upside than the proven guys. i feel like its the mid-tier hitters where the big profit comes from.

Lind over Lee
Holliday over Upton
Javy over Hanson
Cordero over Bailey (i think, this one's touger)

[Hambowen]

No #2 to for me.

I agree with what Viper said about draft vs. auction however. I approach them very differently.

Not surprising since Viper and I have the same Auction strategy with $1 players. Documented a lot in these forums.

[Guest]

I go no #2 here.

I tend to find value shows itself throughout drafts or auctions. Guys you think are steals get stolen.

The player who this sticks out to me on is Matt Wieters. If in his rookie year he put up .280-20-85 he would win ROY.

That's Posada's average last two full seasons. I know he's older and not trying to directly compare the two, but Toby Hall was once a great prospect as well.

If Wieters did .270-15-70, thats maybe 10% more than AJ Pierzynski. I'd bet he goes later than Wieters.

My point isn't to go get Wieters. If you like him, take him. But there's usually cheaper similar production to these rookies that is more safe so long as you're willing to go without the 1 in 100 Pujols.