Projecting Saves

[captgus]

I was wondering if someone could explain the process of projecting saves for any one 'closer'? I would assume that just like anything else, playing time is a large contributing factor but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around HOW a specific number of saves in attained. It's been a head scratcher for me for a while now and well, I was looking at Andrew Bailey's projected numbers and it prompted this post. At first I thought, perhaps it has to do with pitching for the AL West doormat but I think if you use past years as a barometer, pitching for poor teams doesn't necessarily indicate a lack of save opportunities. A quick look at the projected saves for Soria and Bell would seem to back that up.

In any event, it seems like Bailey's peripherals are very good, with perhaps the biggest drawback being the lack of experience/track record. Perhaps I just answered my own question but I was hoping Todd, Lawr, Gary or Rob could chime in.

Thanks!

[NateinSpringfield]

You are right in thinking that playing for a good team vs. bad team is a small factor on save opportunities. I think the three main factors you look at when projecting saves is.

1) Job Security/Track Record
2)Health
3)Trade

1 and 3 are similar, but getting traded to another team is not the same as a lack of performance in the position. Bailey's probably are projected lower than you would think b/c of 1 and 3. He was new to the position last year in the majors and does not have an established track record as a closer.

If you simply google Oakland A's closer you will see it has been a very fickled position in the near past. #3, if you know Billy Beane's philosophy he will trade any player in a heart beat if he thinks he is getting the better end of the deal, and on top of that he doesn't think there has to be a dead set "closer" for the entire season for his team to be successful.

[Guest]

Saves are basically projected as a team total at around 50% of wins. (If you look at the historical record on this almost every team has saves in 45-55% of their wins).

Oakland is at 78 right now, so there are 38 projected saves and we've sprinkled a few amongst others in that pen. Bailey has only closed the one year and being a little conservative doesn't hurt given minimal track record.

[captgus]

Saves are basically projected as a team total at around 50% of wins. (If you look at the historical record on this almost every team has saves in 45-55% of their wins).

Oakland is at 78 right now, so there are 38 projected saves and we've sprinkled a few amongst others in that pen. Bailey has only closed the one year and being a little conservative doesn't hurt given minimal track record.

Thanks Gary, that's exactly what I was looking for!