Compiling a keeper list

[captgus]

I wasn't sure where to post this but since I'm going to insert some of my potential keepers as examples, I thought it best to start here. I was wondering and perhaps it's been a topic of discussion before, if it's advisable to take into consideration roster balance when putting together a list of keepers. Personally, I've always leaned towards reliability (if there even is such a thing) and projected stats as opposed to bargain/inexpensive players. Usually this has lead to a handful of pitchers and batters, most often leaning more towards the offensive side of the ledger. However, this year I've found myself in an odd position, mostly as a result of making a run at a Championship and coming up CC Sabathia's horrendous last outing short.

Do I care, or rather should I care that as things currently stand, I'm looking at 7 out of my 8 keepers as being hitters, with my 1 lone pitcher being a $1 Carlos Marmol?

And to further add to the equation, is there a general consensus against locking up one group of hitters, i.e corner infielders or as is the case I'm currently looking at, all 5 OF spots AND the UT spot? My biggest concern here is hamstringing myself at the auction from being able to take advantage of all of the $1-$4 bargains that always seem to present themselves, especially in the outfield.

This issue had been gnawing at me for some time now and further exacerbated itself when I was presented with an opportunity to trade a $10 Jered Weaver for a $10 Adam Jones last night and so I thought I would bounce the dilemma off you guys.

[rotodog]

You bring up a few things that i am dealing with and have dealt with in regards to keepers. I use a multi-step process to determine keepers.

Everyone likes cheap keepers. But sometimes keepers are not your cheapest players.

I too have a keeper league with an abundance of Keepable OF players. I had 5 at there price. I personally like to remain as flexible as possible on draft day, So I would look to trade my excess OF keepers for another positional need.
I also hate to tie up a DH/UT spot on a keeper before draft day...Unless it is some ridiculous player at a ridiculous salary.

The problem with keeping 5 OF and a UT spot is that throughout the draft, there will be many players that go for less than they should, especially OF'ers... If youre full, you have no place on your roster for them and they float by and land on another teams roster at a salary thats killing you... And for some reason during the draft, there will always be productive OF types that can be had cheaply.

At the same time, I wouldnt necessarily try to achieve perfect balance with my keepers for the sake of simple balance. You can buy what you need to fill in on draft day. Just make sure you identify the type of players ahead of time that will compliment your keeper list the best.

One other exercise I do is to print ALL teams rosters in a league. Take a highlighter and highlight all players you predict will be kept..Some will be no brainers, some you will go with your gut...

This exercise helps you to identify if certain positions or certain types of players that will be scarce on draft day. As an example, if you have a great keeper list but NO speed and you notice that all top Speedsters are going to be kept and not even available on draft day, you may make a keeper decision based on that if you own a marginal keeper with speed. If you know ahead of time that 4-5 teams will be in a bidding war for ANY available speed on draft day because there isn't much available, you may opt to keep your Carl Crawford at 33 bucks instead of your Jason Kubel at 9 bucks.. It basically gives you an idea who to target in trades or on draft day based on the available players..

As far as Pitching goes, i never worry too much about having an imbalance of Offensive keepers if it shakes out that way... Unless you arent confident of your ability to find pitching bargains, I wouldnt worry so much either.

One more thing I do...I will take the MB projection file and add another sheet to it. I will then copy the top line from the projection file with the info..Players...HR...AVG.....etc... and paste it on the top of a blank sheet.

I will then place all the positions down the first column I need to roster for my league. C, C 1b,2b etc...

I will then go to the projection file and copy my potential keeper players and projection and paste it into the position they play. I add a column at the end with keeper cost and put in a price..

When I am done with all my players, I will then Auto sum each category stat at the bottom or write a formula to calculate the ratios stats. I auto sum the prices too.. This gives me an idea of what I have...

I will then swap/Add other potential keepers projections from the projection sheet to see what that does for me..

I will also add random players/positions that I need to fill on draft day into it. I will add in a price that i think they will go for on draft day.....What i am doing is basically constructing many different types of teams around my keepers.. All the while, each time I do, It automatically adds up the stats so i can see where I stand.. It also gives you an idea of what types of teams you can buy for your league budget. I will play with different combinations of players at different positions and values..I add combinations of studs, scrubs, speedy, cheap, power, etc... .Its a great exercise to prepare you for draft day and help make keeper decisions...

At this point, I had 5 very Keepable OF'ers a month ago....I email blasted the owners in my league with my desire to trade one or more of my Of'ers for other positional needs.. I so far have traded 2 for other positions ...I did it to remain flexible on draft day...

hope this helps..

[rotodog]

One last thing in making keeper decisions.

Take into account the price to reacquire a player on draft day...if you own Cody Ross for 8 bucks and because he is Cody Ross will go for no more than 10 bucks, then I might look at other alternatives. If I own a 35 dollar Prince Fielder and I know he(or a player like him) will go for 45+ on draft day due to inflation, than I might keep him instead...
35 bucks doesnt seem cheap, but considering it will cost an extra 10+ dollars to replace him on draft day, paying an extra 1-2 dollars for your Cody Ross on draft day seems like an easy choice...

[cwk1963]

When I am done with all my players, I will then Auto sum each category stat at the bottom or write a formula to calculate the ratios stats. I auto sum the prices too.. This gives me an idea of what I have...

I will then swap/Add other potential keepers projections from the projection sheet to see what that does for me..

I will also add random players/positions that I need to fill on draft day into it. I will add in a price that i think they will go for on draft day.....What i am doing is basically constructing many different types of teams around my keepers.. All the while, each time I do, It automatically adds up the stats so i can see where I stand.. It also gives you an idea of what types of teams you can buy for your league budget. I will play with different combinations of players at different positions and values..I add combinations of studs, scrubs, speedy, cheap, power, etc... .Its a great exercise to prepare you for draft day and help make keeper decisions...

I do this specifically for potential trades prior to keepers being turned in. I have a spreadsheet with a bunch of tabs across the bottom and fill in stats and salaries for each permutation to see the effect each trade would have on my team. It's a great way to help evaluate which are the best moves to make/players to keep.

[lawr]

hmm. well, at least it is kind of like having a quarterback controversy.

i think it is ok to keep five outfielders if you can keep the utility spot open. in fact, i always try to keep my utility spot free as long as possible because it does offer that flexibility.

the obvious (and i suppose rhetorical) thing about flychasers and hurlers is obviously there are the greatest volume of each, and thus the greater chance to find a bargain at both spots.

but, that should not alone dictate keeping good and valuable keepers (although it does suggest trying to trade from depth for something of value to freeze and allow that flexibility).

the other thing is kind of two fold. one aspect is you cannot possibly hope to get all the bargains, and coupled with that no matter how valuable and tempting bargains are, you will neither win with a team full of them.

in other words you need the kemps and pujols on which to build the foundation that allows the bargains, if they come through, to make you competitive.

all of that said, i would go in trying to keep at least the utility spot, and the corner and mi spots free.

other than that, i would try not to get too twisted around propriety and who you are keeping where.

if you have good players, at good prices, and they are worth freezing, freeze them.

[Todd Zola]

Any chance you can share your potential keepers and salaries?

[captgus]

It's a 12 team, mixed league with a budget of $265. The twist is that you are only forced to purchase 12 players at the auction and no more than the starting roster of 23. There is a supplemental draft following the auction and while a few people have attempted to go with an extreme stars and scrubs approach, purchasing only 12 or 13 players at the auction, the results were miserable. Inflation usually runs around 20%-25% but I think in many keeper leagues that's fairly common.

If I had to make a decision now here are the 8 I'd keep:

M.Kemp $7
J.Bay $18
Ad.Jones $10
C.Crawford $31
B.Abreu $20
A.Pujols $44
D.Jeter $22
C.Marmol $1

Candidates on the bubble could include, N.Morgan$10, M.Buerhle$10, B.Molina$9 and a handful of others that I'm not considering but will add for additional context, J.Chamberlain$9, C.Davis$9, J.Hermida$1, X.Nady$1, Delmon Young$1, R.Oswalt$23, E.Bedard$18, CC.Sabathia$37, J.Valverde$22, JP.Howell$11.

I had been considering Morgan but I think I'm pretty well set with stolen bases given the 7 bats above. I've been trying to deal Jason Bay but given his current salary and move to the Mets, there has been no interest. Kemp seems to be the only bat that I could move but given his contract and the contracts of my other keepers, I don't see how I can really afford to take on additional salary.

[Todd Zola]

Given that list, I would consider not freezing Abreu.

The profit you can gain from having that spot open in the auction and the additional flexibility you will have IN-SEASON to replace what should amount to a fungible player far exceeds the limited profit, if any, for keeping him at $20.

The idea is you get an end game OF. If he pans out, great. If not, a 12-mix pool is plush with candidates during the season to use there.

[Todd Zola]

The other thing is perhaps putting Bay back in the pool, if there is indeed limited interest. The auction price should be depressed and if you want him, buy him back. If not, there are plenty of OF to spend $18 on in a shallower mixed format.

[captgus]

Now that's an idea I had kicked around before but not in this situation, thinking that when considering inflation, both Bay$18 and Abreu$20 were below value BUT it would seem to make sense. It stands to reason that I probably wouldn't be able to get either back at those salaries but it would allow me to spend the money it did free up at auction on other positions, i.e. third base, corner infielder and middle infield. Is Morgan too much of a one trick pony, with a minimal track record to keep at $10?

[rotodog]

Aside of whats been mentioned above, One other option you may consider is to either trade Crawford or let him go back and keep Nyger at 10 bucks. Your team is very speedy throughout and that extra 21 dollars you would save could easily help you add the Power bats that would benefit your team as it sits now... And you really wont be giving up any sb ground in the process..

I would do my best to Pimp Crawford in trade and possibly keep Morgan in his place.. Carl Crawford is a good player and does represent value in an inflated 12 team mixed draft ...Someone must be able to use his skills in trade..

[Todd Zola]

Now that's an idea I had kicked around before but not in this situation, thinking that when considering inflation, both Bay$18 and Abreu$20 were below value BUT it would seem to make sense. It stands to reason that I probably wouldn't be able to get either back at those salaries but it would allow me to spend the money it did free up at auction on other positions, i.e. third base, corner infielder and middle infield. Is Morgan too much of a one trick pony, with a minimal track record to keep at $10?

yes - they are "below value"

But you need (and I think you are) look at the ROSTER SPOT as a whole.

How much profit can you earn from that ROSTER SPOT?

Yeah, Abreu and/or Bay can flip a profit.

But in a mixed league, you can easily enjoy a greater profit on a $1 or $2 guy in the end game, or pick up a free agent (Garrett Jones as an example) dump your $1 player and smile all the way to the roto-bank.

You reap a greater benefit dumping Scott Hairston and picking up the 2010 Garrett Jones than you do dumping one of your guys.

[captgus]

RotoDog - trading Crawford is definitely worth a shot, you're argument being very valid but a general pattern or tendency in this league is that there isn't much trade value for players, say $25 and up at this point in the season. Mid season and prior to the trade deadline when teams are looking to make a final push for a money spot sure, but I'm not sure I could get to much in return for him at this point.

Todd, thanks for the feedback. I guess since I just looked at those two as being "below value" that I hadn't stopped to consider the flip side. I knew that having all 5 OF spots filled with such a large percentage of my budget was going to hinder me elsewhere and now having had the opportunity to bounce ideas off others I can see, as things currently stand, freeing up those two OF sports and saving almost $40 in salary will allow me some flexibility elsewhere.

[lawr]

let me add one more thought in general to keepers that todd touches on. and, for me this is as basic a part of overall strategy as anything.

but, for every keeper, there is the basic is he a value or not question.

if the answer is no, then releasing that player becomes rhetorical.

but, the bottom line is "can i get him back for what i paid or less?"

if the answer to that is no, again, it is sort of rhetorical.

but...and, jason bay is what made me think this, if a guy is on the bubble, then i am happy to try to get the player back for what i paid.

but, obviously part of the game is that price enforcing, and making someone who has a hole, or a man crush pay $23 for bay when i know he is only worth $18.

and, bay may deliver the $23 but the onus to get that extra production is on the owner who overspent. if i can get godzilla for $12 and parlay the extra $11 into something else, that will take me further.

[Todd Zola]

There is another option and that is to keep everyone then look to deal IN SEASON.

You can accomplish the same thing by doing a 2 or 1, give up an outfielder and another position for a better player at the other position. Then pick up a free agent for the open OF spot.

Let's say the trade is dealing a "7" and a "5" for a "10". The other owner may take it as he gets a greater combined value and may have a stiff or an injured guy to replace. Now you pick up a "3" or "4" from waivers/free agency and you realize a net gain.

[captgus]

Lawr, excellent point and insofar as it pertains to my situation, Abreu may fit that scenario spot on. I think with the losses that the Angels have had thus far this winter, specifically Figgins, Guerrero and Lackey and with what the Mariners have accomplished, that there may be a consensus that the Angels might not perform like they have the past few years. At least I know that in talking with a few other owners that seems to be the perception.

I think that people may see Bay's home runs from last year, sprinkled with a handful of stolen bases and have to think he's going to go much higher in the auction but I'm ok with that. I'm not or rather try not, to marry myself to anyone player and if he did go upwards of $23-$27, then that's just that much more money he's sucked from a competitor's budget.

I'm liking setting Abreu and Bay free more and more!

[cwk1963]

I look at the Bay situation a little differently. Not so much how much over $18 he will go in the auction but will he return that value. He's only hit over .300 once in his career so BA won't ba a big part of his value. I'd look at maybe .270 and hope he could hit .280 like he did in his earlier years. He's certainly not a lock for double digit SB anymore. So the biggest part of his value is in HR and I'm not sold on it. It may be anecdotal but I look at David Wright's power struggles last year in Citi Field and I wonder if the same won't happen to Bay. I haven't heard anything about the Mets bringing in the fences at all so, personally, I'm tempering all power expectations from Mets players.

[Todd Zola]

Pardon the c/p -- this is something I posted as part of a David Wright discussion on the NFBC boards....

Code: Select all

While I am not the biggest proponent of "park factors", Citi Field was actually FAVORABLE for RHB in its inaugural season inflating them 10% over a neutral park according to the accepted means of determination.  Again, I have issues with the calculation, so I am just the messenger here.

The Mets batters hit 49 HR at home and 46 on the road

The Mets pitchers gave 81 at home and 77 on the road.

The formal equation has some adjustments for the fact many home games (maybe not so many for the Mets  :P  ) but some home games only go 8 1/2 innings.

The calculation without the adjustment is

100 x (49+81)/(46+77) = 106

106 means teh park inflated HR by 6% over a neutral park.

The 10% I cited was from the Bill James Handbook and uses the more precise formula.

But the point is Mets' hitters hit more HR at home than the road and their pitchers gave up more at home.

Of course, this assumes the home and away samples are exactly the same with respect to the exact pitchers facing the exact hitters and weather conditions, which is obviously not the case -- which is why three years of data is necessary to make the data reliable.

[Hambowen]

I think Rotodog's suggestion is the way to go. Trade Crawford and Keep Nyger.

To answer your concern about people not being interesting in players over $25: I would look to deal Crawford for a similar value power hitter that plays an infield position. You may not improve the "value" of your team as they have similar cost/production values but you gain a few things to help your team:

1) You keep Nyger who is better keeper then Abreu at their prices.
2) Getting the infielder with Power adds better balance to your teams stats going into the draft
3) The infielder gives you the flexibilty on draft day to get the good values in the OF

I would really look to move Crawford for a power hitting infielder, keep Nyger, not keep Abreu. Whether you keep Bay or not is tough. Personally I would.

Look over the other teams in your league and I am sure you can come up with a good list of $25-$35 Power hitting infielders with similar value to crawford that you could target.