Zen Projection Engine

[JP Kastner]

I stuck the projections into the Zen Projection Engine, the spreadsheet tool that is the equivalent of CVRC, and placed them in the Platinum Plan tools. Once Todd finishes an article, he will be releasing the 2010 edition of the CVRC later today.

In CREATiVESPORTS lingo, the Zen Projection Engine is the process that we developed projections. The ZENgine is the spreadsheet we put it all in so someone could calculate dollar values. The dollar methodology is the Playing for Blood (PoB) system. As Lawr Michaels was the editor for many of John Benson's books, that makes logical sense.

As it uses PoB, and PoB is not the official methodology of Mastersball, the dollar values calculated by this spreadsheet are UNOFFICIAL.

While the dollar value are unofficial, it is an ascetically pleasing tool and shows our readers the direction we will be taking things in the long-term. It has a very clean look. You make your inputs, click a button, and the calculations are done. The back end is completely written in Visual Basic for Applications.

The results are displayed a number of different ways including a cheat sheet that can be printed on an 8.5 x 14 (legal) sheet of paper. It is the results of this tool that were used by Brian Walton and Lawr Michaels to win Tout Wars last year. It is also the tool I used to take part in the Tout Wars AL auction when Dean Peterson of Stats was stuck in the Cincinnati airport and I acted for him with only 30 minutes to prepare. That team came in second in 2008. (Imaging bidding in the hardest league in the world with 30 minutes to prepare and movie cameras recording your success or failure!)

Some of the cool features is the ability to calculate a league with Keepers.

For those of you who really get into this, take a look and comment on what you like about it. The CVRC 2.0 tool for 2011 will be a hybrid of the two tools. I should also mention that we are looking at Rob's drafting tool as well. The next tool will really be a best of breed of the three tools.

[cwk1963]

I like the overall layout and the color. I think the merging of this, CVRC and Rob's drafting sheet will result in a superior tool.

[aburt19]

I changed the percentage of the budget being spent on hitting from 70% to 68%, which more closely follows the past
experience in my league (10 teams). The total for hitters should have been 1768 (68% of 2600). But the total for the
hitters page was 1753 or $15 too low. The pitching side was 845 when it should have been 832 (13 too high). I was
wondering why it didn't calculate to the proper numbers? Is it because of rounding?

The numbers aren't off by a lot, just enough to make me wonder why. Other than that it seems to work well. It will be
interesting to compare values when CVRC comes out and I run the calculations.

I have a spreadsheet that I came up with more years ago than I like to think about using the Playing for Blood book. But
I never was satisfied that the rate calculations (BA, ERA and WHIP) were correct. The book suggests using the last place
number in those categories. How is that handled in the spreadsheet (if that's not asking you to reveal a trade secret)?

Thanks.

[JP Kastner]

Yes, it is off because of rounding numbers. That is one of the weaknesses of the system is that you will not have a full pool of dollars because of rounding issues. Those formulas were cutting edge in 1994. I tried to faithfully reproduce them.

It calculates a series of constants based upon the pool of players. I don't want to spend too much time talking the internals because this track is being phased out. I am supporting this tool for one more year because there were many people who liked the simplicity and the fact that it supported keeper lists.

By putting out this tool, I'm looking to build a list of things that people would want in a tool. The single biggest weakness of this tool is also its strength. To make it simple, it uses VBA. That means it immediately doesn't work on Office for Mac 2008. Is that an issue? VBA can be used to make worms. Are people comfortable trusting us when we code stuff?

On the other hand, it is really simple to use. Click some check boxes, press a button and in a couple of seconds you have some results.

[WillRoy]

I'm not sure how Zen calculates its values but I really like them! It gives higher dollars than the more conservative other systems did for my specific leagues.

The only question I have now is: The top 7 pitchers are closers for one of my leagues (6x7 with 5x5 plus OPS/Holds/Innings pitched). Is this a reflection of the methodology or just that the closers this year are darned good with few clear favorites for SP? (8th is Lincey, 16th is Carp. Above and between are closers). Very good stuff.

This is probably my favorite new tool (surpassing, imho, both wheelhouse/rotowire/rotolab and any of the many others I've used).

[Todd Zola]

The only question I have now is: The top 7 pitchers are closers for one of my leagues (6x7 with 5x5 plus OPS/Holds/Innings pitched). Is this a reflection of the methodology or just that the closers this year are darned good with few clear favorites for SP? (8th is Lincey, 16th is Carp. Above and between are closers). Very good stuff.

I am 95% sure this is due to the valuation method, though I am saving that last 5% for the fact we will be really scrubbing the pitching and the greatest effect will be on W-L.

We employ the pythag method, using team runs scored and runs allowed by the pitcher. Since so many teams have holes in their offense, we are short a ton of projected runs scored so we have to estimate. As teams fill in their rosters, the global at bats hence runs will increase.

But with that said, using the CVRC, the closers are not worth quite that much.

[aburt19]

I'm not sure how Zen calculates its values but I really like them! It gives higher dollars than the more conservative other systems did for my specific leagues.

The only question I have now is: The top 7 pitchers are closers for one of my leagues (6x7 with 5x5 plus OPS/Holds/Innings pitched). Is this a reflection of the methodology or just that the closers this year are darned good with few clear favorites for SP? (8th is Lincey, 16th is Carp. Above and between are closers). Very good stuff.

This is probably my favorite new tool (surpassing, imho, both wheelhouse/rotowire/rotolab and any of the many others I've used).

I can't comment on this software.But if it uses the methodology in Playing for Blood, all categories are valued exactly
the same. In most leagues in which I have participated, the closers usually go for a discount. I have arbitrarily changed
the weighting of the saves category to about 75%-80% of the amount shown in the book, which raises the value of the
starters.

In the leagues in which I participate, if you don't do that, you can figure that you will be very hard pressed to get
starters unless it is the bargain basement variety.

ETA: I should clarify. I mean that I changed the formula on the EXCEL worksheet that I devised for saves to be 75%-80%
of the norm, not that I made a change to the ZEN worksheet.

[Todd Zola]

I can't comment on this software.But if it uses the methodology in Playing for Blood, all categories are valued exactly
the same. In most leagues in which I have participated, the closers usually go for a discount. I have arbitrarily changed
the weighting of the saves category to about 75%-80% of the amount shown in the book, which raises the value of the
starters.

In the leagues in which I participate, if you don't do that, you can figure that you will be very hard pressed to get
starters unless it is the bargain basement variety.

DING DING!!!

We have a winner!!!

[JP Kastner]

I have pondered a solution where it would be possible to change the valuation system through a setting. BoP, SGP and our method would be choices. That way you could see how players change depending upon what method is used.

[WillRoy]

Boy, that would be GREAT.

As I said earlier, I really like this tool. It'd be cool to have your method (I assume that includes the above-replacement aspect from CVRC) be an option.

-Will

[JP Kastner]

I have been inspired. It won't happen this season due to time restraints, but it gives us a plan for 2011.


JP

[WillRoy]

Thank you