Based on the first set of projections would it be safe to say the site is moving away from the Papelbon plan?
I personally use it in most leagues but they are mostly Keeper leagues where I have a lot of hitting stats tied up for cheap $'s so I have the resources to get a Nathan, Papelbon, Rivera without hurting my hitting stats. (full disclosure I only had Nathan on my list of people I would do the plan with, not the others. So I guess I did the Nathan and no one else plan)
Anyways just wanted to hear your thoughts on it.
Matt
Papelbon Plan - Moving away from this strategy?
Re: Papelbon Plan - Moving away from this strategy?
I wouldn't base to use it or not off the projections, especially those that come out in December.
We'll explain a little more as the off-season progresses, but we incorporated a little more regression into our pitching numbers. This is more pertinent for starting pitchers. Some of the better relievers may not regress as much to the mean in terms of BABIP and LOB%.
It really revolves around the dynamic of your particular league, just like most strategies of this nature.
If my league as a whole devalues closers and wants to try to troll for them during the season, I'll secure a top one during the draft/auction and use those ratio numbers to better my staff as a whole.
We'll explain a little more as the off-season progresses, but we incorporated a little more regression into our pitching numbers. This is more pertinent for starting pitchers. Some of the better relievers may not regress as much to the mean in terms of BABIP and LOB%.
It really revolves around the dynamic of your particular league, just like most strategies of this nature.
If my league as a whole devalues closers and wants to try to troll for them during the season, I'll secure a top one during the draft/auction and use those ratio numbers to better my staff as a whole.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
-
Guest
Re: Papelbon Plan - Moving away from this strategy?
The nice thing about the regression methodology we'll be outlining in the upcoming weeks is that it precisely outlines the question you raise - that is, where is the upside/downside to the strategy raised?
In the case of some of these closers, they could regress to still solid but not studly numbers and it might destroy the strategy. At the same time there are some closers (Pap, Nathan, Mo) who simply stud every year.
In the case of some of these closers, they could regress to still solid but not studly numbers and it might destroy the strategy. At the same time there are some closers (Pap, Nathan, Mo) who simply stud every year.