MB'09 - Hunter Pence, OF, HOU

[Bodhizefa]

Pence is an interesting case for '09 in that he had a pretty bad 1st half last followed up by a quality 2nd half. And yet both halves were pretty big disappointments from what Pence did in '08. Or were they?

Pence was actually already in line to be an underachiever if owners thought he was going to replicate his '08 numbers in full-season fashion. Hunter's BABIP in '08 was unsustainably high (a whopping .378), and it returned to a more "normal" .308 last year. Still, Pence's line drive rate last year is what is so disconcerting. In 2008, he hit a fairly normal line drive rate of 19.4%. In 2009, his percentage plummeted to the worst in the league for all qualified batters at 13.9% -- a pretty astoundingly awful line for someone considered to be a power hitting slugger. Was Pence playing hurt? Who knows. All we do know is that Pence simply isn't the astounding fantasy player many thought he was after his sizzling 2008 debut. The underlying numbers simply don't add up to superstar. What they do add up to is a very solid fantasy player who should hit something in the realm of .285/.340/.500 with a good number of steals (although to be honest, he is a poor baserunner with a low success rate thus far into his career) to go along with around 90 RBI's and 85 Runs. There is certainly upside in this projection as Pence's minor league ISO's suggest he's got some real growth potential in that area. He also has a history of outperforming a .300 BABIP point in the minors a bit, which can be a skill (although in many ways, until we get HitFX, we'll never quite know skill from luck in this stat) -- for example, Chone, Marcel and Bill James all have Pence as likely to have somewhere between a .324 and a .332 BABIP.

That last paragraph was a little stat-heavy for the youngsters out there, so let me put this succinctly. Pence is good and may in his prime do a fairly good impersonation of peak Carlos Lee. But at the moment, don't expect too much more than a repeat of his 2nd half in '08.

[Mojo Jojo]

i think hunter pence will...but first a word from our sponser

harkening back to my rebound post...you guys are making me think too much about why i think the way i do...

however, it is becoming quite clear to me that the 'edge' in fantasy sports is seeming to change again. or maybe it has changed and i am simply getting on board and getting a clearer picture. or maybe i am deluded and making stuff up again.

many years ago the way to win was optimum bids (basically bidding 80% of projected value), the idea being you bought more stats for your money....

as most everybody started using optimal bids it evolved into buying role players who might get more time and because of that earned more profit....this is still being used today in various forms

today it seems for me what i am looking at is drafting/buying upside(...skills?). basically a percentage play of getting more than i paid for (not to dissimilar from the old optimal bids theory...then i would only bid $16 to earn $20, now i bid $20 hoping i get $25)

i think what we we're really doing is really the same thing....we are gambling that what we have is really better than what everyone thinks. IMO, the refinement of the 'process' should focus on how to improve our 'odds' of being right.

it is not "how much we are better" (yes, obviously that matters in the cumulative totals of things)...it is about being "right" and we got more than what we paid for. i know the basis from which we start is important (projections) but you guys work on that...i will work on my 'luck'

now back to our regularly scheduled show...

...hunter pence is one of those guys whose power is real and whose hr/fb pct is really good...now if he would/could turn some of those damn ground balls into line drives and fly balls we gots ourselves one serious power party....as dirty harry might say...how lucky do you feel?...punk