Delmon Young - ROY

[brooklyn49]

While not in the very top tier of OF's, Delmon Young consistently has been projected as one of the better contributors in the ROY evaluations. 1 HR, 2 SB and 14 RBIs on the season is unimpressive to say the least. His BA, a major source of his projected value, has been .245, .250 and .105 for the season, month and week respectively. Likewise, his OPS for the three data points is .575, .558 and a ridiculous .255

Clearly, I am not understanding what you see coming or why.

[Todd Zola]

Questions like this should probably be in the site content section -- I will move it there later

With the caveat that the Gary is the AL update-guy, I'll address the question and defer to him if he wants to chime in and clarify/embellish/correct anything I offer.

There are several different things converging here. Coming into the season, we were higher on Delmon Young than anyone else I saw, both in terms of playing time and performance. So we are working off a higher baseline. Our model favored Young and we estimated he would receive considerably more playing time than he has, even though we were fully aware of the logjam in the Twins outfield and DH. And obviously, we are still high on Young, though we have cut his expected year-end at bats down by 50. This is under constant evaluation and Gary in fact alludes to this in the notes for the latest update (to be posted soon).

Our rest-of-year model is an objective estimation, because that is an accurate representation of our site philosophy with such matters. We just don't believe a player's skills can change that much in the 6 weeks of the season from how we viewed them at the beginning. DO some change? Yeah, probably. But the VAST MAJORITY don't and we trust our system to be right for the greater good, at the expense of perhaps missing a player here or there. Does this mean we will never make a skills change? No, we obviously reserve the right to do so when we feel it is warranted.

Our system is not projecting 40 more homers for Mauer or 30 more for Aaron Hill. It is also not saying we expected Hill to hit 15 so he will only get 4 more (or whatever the actual numbers are). The projection is a weighted average of what has happened and what we expect, scaled to the RoY playing time projection.

With respect to Young, we had him for 12 HR originally, he has 1 and we have him for 9 more so his new projected final total of 10 is different than the original, it has been adjusted down. If we decide to take away another 50-100 AB, it will decrease further. If he plays and does not hit as many as we expect, it will also decline. I'm using HR as an example, this is true for all the stats.

If he continues to perform at a level lower than our original perception, and we can discern some tangible reason for the decline, we will alter the skills.

As a site, our objective is to be open about the process. We don't expect or even want everyone to agree with everything we say, or even agree with our methodology. But we present as much of it as possible to allow the use to flavor their own opinion, and obviously also entertain questions and comments about the contents.

For kicks, let's take a look at Delmon to see if there is any evidence of declining skills, or is his performance more due to spotty playing time, punctuated by the recent loss of his Mother.

His BABIP is normal, but he is striking out at an alarming rate, so he has not been unlucky, his low BA is a result of striking out a ton. So the question is this a reflection of a declining skill or more a result of the way he has been used with uneven playing time? He had about 1300 MLB at bats where he struck out about 19% of the time, we have chosen to call his 31% in 102 AB this season a sample size issue based on his irregular time, and if he indeed does get full-time at bats, he will fix the contact rate. His GB/FB rate, which was already heavy GB is tipping even a little more that way and his HR/FB is down a tick, but all this is tempered by the 100AB sample. Again, the interpretation is this is a figment of his irregular playing time.

So in summary..

1. We are higher on Young than everyone else
2. We still feel these is some good ball left in him this season
3. We see the declining performance as a playing time issue and not a misreading of his skills

With that said, I do agree his playing time needs to be reassessed.

[brooklyn49]

Questions like this should probably be in the site content section -- I will move it there later

Thanks, Todd. I wasn't exactly sure which section it belonged.

[Todd Zola]

As my sister would say -- no biggie!!!

Just wanted to make sure you saw the reply and didn't think we were skirting the question if I had moved it.

[Guest]

At this point, we're probably too aggressive on him. That said, my concern with the projection is still more playing time driven than it is skill driven. I just don't see us being so crazy out on a limb about him that we're nuts - 9 HR, 9 SB in 4 months doesn't alarm me, but the overall dollar value - yeah, at this point I wouldn't pay it.

The Young situation is driving me to consider amending our projection process somewhat but before I do it, the readers will get a chance to opine on the difference.

[aburt19]

At this point, we're probably too aggressive on him. That said, my concern with the projection is still more playing time driven than it is skill driven. I just don't see us being so crazy out on a limb about him that we're nuts - 9 HR, 9 SB in 4 months doesn't alarm me, but the overall dollar value - yeah, at this point I wouldn't pay it.

The Young situation is driving me to consider amending our projection process somewhat but before I do it, the readers will get a chance to opine on the difference.

I guess the biggest thing that I question is what leads you to believe that Delmon Young's playing time is going to increase
from what it has been so far during the season? We are close to 1/3 of the way through the season and Young has 109 AB.
The projection for the RoY shows him getting over 400 AB over the last 2/3 of the season. In order for that to happen, he
has to turn into a full time player immediately. I just don't see that given that there is no injury to anyone in the Twins
OF and Delmon certainly hasn't done anything to earn extra playing time. I'm not saying that I would decrease his projection
for the rest of the year to 200 AB, but I would probably say it's in the 275-325 AB range.

When the projections are sorted, Delmon Young has the third highest number of AB for the remainder of the season and
is actually higher than Ichiro by 1 AB. Given the Ichiro is a lead-off hitter and Delmon doesn't have a full time job now, I
find that hard to believe.

I'm not questioning the skills analysis, it's more a playing time issue.

[Todd Zola]

As we both have said, Young's playing time will be reviewed for the next update.

It is obvious at this point he will not be a full-timer.

We have been quite open about our thought processes on Young all season.

I don't know for sure, but I am guessing his new time will not simply be taking his AB for the first 3rd and prorating that over the final 2/3rds. Personally, I still think at some point his skills will warrant more regular time.

[roche]

I don't know for sure, but I am guessing his new time will not simply be taking his AB for the first 3rd and prorating that over the final 2/3rds. Personally, I still think at some point his skills will warrant more regular time.

A case can also be made that Young's playing time may actually go down for the rest of the season.
Coming out of spring training, the Twins had a logjam at OF/DH with a lot of question marks: Cuddyer coming off a lost season filled with injuries;Span and Gomez both had good rookie seasons but can they improve or even repeat their performances; can Kubel learn to hit lefthanders; is Young going to break out finally. Now that 1/3 of the season has passed, the manager may decide to stop trying to fit everyone in and just go with his best lineup. Right now, I'd say that Young is 5th out of the 5. He certainly hasn't earned any more playing time.

Disclaimer: I own D Young in 3 leagues and the frustration of seeing his stats line is mounting everyday.

[Guest]

Its a fair point Ive probably been too aggressive here. Expect a pretty good sized regression downwards in this update. I feel very strongly there's upside to this player but we're past the point the projection needs to reflect it entirely.

[Todd Zola]

Playing time has been split pretty evenly amongst the 5 lately, with Kubel, Span and the red-hot Cuddyer getting more than Gomez and Young. Neither Gomez or Young has stepped it up enough for one to play more than the other and since they are both righties, there is no L/R platoon situation.

Based in skills, I humbly believe at some point Young will separate himself from Gomez. History also suggests that Cuddyer will not make it through the season unscathed and he in fact is a little dinged up now. So there is some hope, a good deal of it, in fact, for those invested in Delmon. Considering I am pretty heavily invested in both Young and Grady Sizemore, my AL only teams are scuffling a bit, but we'll scrape through.

[roche]

I feel very strongly there's upside to this player

0 for 4 with 2K.

I sure hope that it's a case of "it's always darkest before the dawn".

[Todd Zola]

Unfortunately, the "X" factor in all this is Young has really, really scuffled since losing his Mom. So while this may sound somewhat cold and thoughtless, the question one needs to at least consider are his struggles at all related to that and if so, how long will he take to recover? Or is he just not playing well? I don't think there is an answer and I am not going to speculate, just reminding everyone there is a human element intertwined with this particular situation.

[roche]

Wed, Jun 3

LF Delmon Young came inches away from his third extra-base hit of the season Wednesday, but the ball landed just foul down the right field line. Young returned to the plate and struck out looking -- his 40th whiff of the season, with No. 41 following to end the game. He's now batting .231 this season.

(Yahoo! Sports)

I found this hilarious. When your player's roto news is that he almost got a hit, you are really reaching for the positives. Someone at Yahoo must have a sense of humor or is a DYOung owner himself.