Going the trade route for pitching?

[CubFan]

12 team 5x5 AL-only keeper league. I'm in the middle of the pack (not used to being there). My pitching is in shambles and need help in all areas. Price is available via FAAB...so is Weiters, not much else. I've got Escobar who should be coming off the DL by mid June. See signature for current roster. Was thinking of trying to entice the Greinke owner with Markakis and replace some of his numbers with Weiters (would probably need to throw $30ish FAAB to land him). Greinke can be kept for 2010 at $22, Markakis goes back into the draft. I could try to pry Beckett with Kubel by pointing out the formers overall poor 2009 numbers.

I have also been approached by an owner needing offense and he is willing to trade any of his pitchers including Papelbon (goes back into the draft), Nathan ($28), Buehrle ($13) and Porcello ($14). He's asking for Markakis, Kinsler or Longoria (he is off-limits). I'm wondering the merits of trading Kubel for either Buehrle or Porcello. Neither one has a great K-rate but they both pitch in the weak AL Central. Negative for Buehrle is his ERA and to a lesser extent his WHIP are likely to regress towards his career mean as his current line is unsustainable. Negative for Porcello is he is a rookie and we all know the pain of rostering rookie pitchers and how will he fare the second time through the league. The last option is do or die via the FAAB route and throw $25+ each at Price (thinking his first outing and his non-stellar AAA numbers have taken the shine off his star) and Weiters. This would in effect leave me with less than $5 FAAB for the rest of the year. So looking for opinions on WWYD (what would you do).

And if I don't get back into the hunt within the next 2 or 3 weeks I'll need to seriously consider playing for 2010. There are only a few worthwhile keepers and would need to act fast to land them before someone else.

[Hambowen]

I don't think either of the deals you mentioned for grienke and Beckett would get done. Buying super high on Grienke and kubel is just not worth beckett.

I would consider doing a markakis for Nathan deal. Nathan will help your ratio's a lot and is a keeper at $28.

I am assuming that you don't need to start only 4 sp's and 5 rp's? If you do though that makes Nathan even more valuable.

If you do the Nathan deal then I would go heavy on Weiters and land him. If not then I would go heavy on Price. If you think you can make due with very little Faab the rest of way then I may try for both.

Going for 1 though is a must depending on the trades you make or don't make.

[da_big_kid_94]

I forget what your league's rules are about the keeping and salaries of FAAB players in subsequent years. What would Weiters situation be in 2010 and beyond for his new owner? And, subsequently, how well positioned is the other owner when it comes to FAAB?

I like Kubel as well (owned him the last three years) - but he's not worth Beckett no matter what sort of picture you paint. In the other deal, I'm assuming you need starting pitching and not closers so the only name that could help you is Buehrle. I'd consider doing Buehrle for Markakis (but you;d really have to say why he'd want this type of deal - guy wants a bat in an AL only, all of his pitchers are available and these are the best he's got overall? And he's willing to give up a good cheap pitcher for a guy in his final year? Has to be something more to it, no?)

[CubFan]

Can carry over a max of 6 keepers. In season salary cap of $310. I likely would not protect Nathan at $28 as we've never had a closer go for more than $30 (other than Rivera in his prime). Agree Nathan would help ratios but a single relief pitcher wont affect my ratios as much as say a stud starter who logs 100+ IP going forward (Greinke/Beckett). Agree if I am the Greinke owner I'd want more but I'm not a believer of trading a stud offensive guy for anyone not named Johan (this is the first year Greinke has gone Johan). Figure no harm in making a "reasonable" offer.

kid_94...From the gist of his e-mail the Nathan, Papelbon, etc owner is in dire need of offense. He was in 2nd overall as of Sunday. So he's going for it this year and thus really no catch. He does have much more FAAB than me and will likely go after Weiters. Past experience shows he will pay above above market price for a player....e.g. $14 for Porcello when he was first called up and no one else bid more than $5.

Markakis is considered a top 10 fantasy hitter while Buehrle is not....nor is Porcello so I don't see including him in a deal for either one unless more was coming back to me. See last sentence in 1st paragraph on my philosophy on hitters for pitchers. My concern about Buehrle is that his ratios will most likely head north going forward as I don't see him maintaining a sub 3 ERA. His historical performance suggests he'll likely post a 3.50+ ERA going forward to end up with a season ERA around 3.25 which would be one of his best years ever. And I have to remember he did have some arm issues at the start of the year. As much as I like Kubel I don't see him hitting much over .300 for the year...and his lack of SBs and sitting when playing in NL parks. The Twinkies travel to a number of NL parks in the very near future. Thus my rationale in offering Kubel.

Thanks for the feedback and hope to see more.

[da_big_kid_94]

Ok ... first, I think you're being a little positive on Markakis - very nice hitter? Yes. Top 10? Little much (right now, Miggy , Longoria, VMart, ARod, Morneau, Mauer, Torii, Aaron Hill - even Russ Branyan - not to mention he's not even tops on his own team (Jones)).

Second,unless Buehrle is in his last year and it just wasn't stated, I can not see how you can expect more for a guy who can't be kept versus one who can. Add to that an AL only pitcher at a cheap price?

As for the philosophy, I have not forgotten some of of our past conversations. You and I have spoken about trying to accomplish both of those goals at the same time (playing simultaneously for this year and next). You are trying to get someone to put the value on these players that you yourself have, and there's nothing wrong in trying that. But I wouldn't kill a deal that is seemingly very much in your favor, barring injury, for the sake of seeking something more. I would not prime the pump in this situation, given your respective needs.

As for Kubel, the Twins have a total of 6 more road games in NL parks this year - not a major selling point if the other guy glances at the schedule. As for Buerhle's projections - who are you going to get that will be better for what you will be willing to offer. You're already counting on a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in a game since 2007. Cheap reliable pitching in an AL only is like gold - I'd take the deal and be quite happy with it.

Good luck.

[Tampa Bob]

I think Beckett is starting to come around and I would guess that his owner (we generally love our own guys) thinks so too. In that light I agree that Kubel would not entice him. Why not try Markakis instead? As for that top 10 ranking, the staff of this illustrious site share that opinion at least dollar-wise. That brings up a question regarding the pitching RoY projections which I'll post later.

If not Beckett for Markakis then I think that if you can get Buehrle or Porcello for Kubel you pretty much have to go for it.

Good luck!

[ChipDog]

Cubfan .... if you can any of those deals done, then more power to you. I wouldnt be on the other end of any of that for Kubel. Maybe thats why you've been so successful if you can get other owners to agree to stuff like that. Markakis is close to top 10, so sending him for a good pitcher is reasonable.

So what do you think it will take in your league to get Price and Wieters? ... I'm in the same boat with FAAB on those guys this weekend. I'm not sure what to bid ... I'm in mid-lower half of the standings right now.

[CubFan]

So what do you think it will take in your league to get Price and Wieters? ... I'm in the same boat with FAAB on those guys this weekend. I'm not sure what to bid ... I'm in mid-lower half of the standings right now.

Well, prior to today's outing I thought around $20 would land Price in our league (Porcello went for $14 when he came up and the next highest bidder was around $6 so a floor has been set). But after K'ing 11 in 5+ innings (granted it's the Twinkies) it may be more like $25-$30. As for Wieters probably $30+ mainly because we had an owner recently get LaPorta for $20 (he doesn't have enough FAAB to go above $25 now). Plus others saw what I paid to get Longoria last year ($19) so to me that sets the floor and is partly why LaPorta went for $20. There is just so much hype with these two it is truly a crap shoot on what it'll take. I suspect someone who is super desperate in a league with a team salary cap will pay up to that cap limit.
It's extremely rare for a rookie to come in and dominate from the get go. Weiters could be that exception, hence the hype. I'm thinking Price will have dominating starts mixed in with a getting shelled as we must remember he will be pitching in the tough AL East. Most certainly they will not produce for the cost it takes to land them in a competitive leagues.