Yankee Stadium .vs. Coors

[viper]

I am beginning to think benching starting pitchers in Yankees Stadium, including all Yankees without the initials C.C., is more important than doing the same at Coors.

Imagine if this year's Home run Derby was held there - actually, it sort of is.

[Todd Zola]

Keep in mind a true park effect compares home performance versus road performance. I'll run some numbers later, but early on, the Yankees pitching was lousy (so opponents should have some HR while they are at home) and the Yankee bats have come around lately (so they should have some away HR).

There is a reason why most use a 3-year average for park effect.

[viper]

My best guess is that year one will shows high numbers. And I don't feel like I am going out on a ledge with that prediction.

Another guess is that in the off season, there will be changes in how the wind impacts this park. My bowling buddy was the main design architect for the Ballpark in Arlington. He said all the initial wind tunnel tests in Arlington showed it would be a pitcher's park. Then Rangers management put some signage up high - I can't recall if it was before season one or season two. There was no immediate redo of the wind tunnel test. The positive hitting impact was immediate. My guess is the Yankees will consider doing the opposite but I do bet they run wind tunnel impacts first.

I did see on the ESPN park effect page, Yankee Stadium well ahead in HR/game but they were "only" the 7th or 8th best hitting park.

[Todd Zola]

I guess my point is that the New Yankee Stadium is obviously a hitter's park, it should settle down from the 170% increase over neutral we are seeing now. But this is not exactly ground-breaking analysis.

Fenway is another example of how construction has altered how a park plays. Since adding the expansion over home plate, HR are WAY down. Doubles are up, it is still a hitter's park overall, but not as easy to lift a normal fly over the Green Monster.

It is interesting to note that Citi Field is playing as a HR park so far and that Turner Field is as bad for HR as Yankee Stadium is good.

In general, I am not a big fan of determining park effects other than to generalize a really good hitter's park, a good hitter's park, neutral, good pitcher's park and really good pitcher's park. I call it the caveman approach to park effects.

[viper]

ugh! me want big stick