Super early season trade?

[CubFan]

What side of a Vlad $44/Pablo Lopez $20 for Judge $40/Lynn $21 would you take? 12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league using W+QS and OBP. Vlad contract prevents him from being dropped in the event of an injury.

My concern is Lynn's reduced velo (-1.7 mph) and poor command (7 walks in 10 innings). Lopez' FB has sat about a tick higher but he does come with a chronic shoulder issue. Although it's super early Vlad has just 1 K to 5 BB and looking great at the plate. Judge has a whopping 12 Ks to just 3 BBs. I haven't proposed the trade yet but if I got Vlad I'd be super weighted to the Jays offense with him, Bichette, Jansen and Chapman and lose my only share of a Yankee offense which should be very productive.

[Todd Zola]

I can't pick sides in a deal, there is too much context. All I can do is offer stuff to think about and in this case, it's don't get so glued to one week's worth of play and focus on the big picture and expectations heading into the season and which side will help your team be more competitive. Granular data is nice, but it still is more descriptive than predictive.

[CubFan]

Understand your position. How about looking at it from a different angle......who do you think has a better chance or reaching their projections, i.e. your projections? And how much of a health risk is Lopez?

[Todd Zola]

My projections are such that they all have an equal chance. That's what a projection is, a 50th percentile range of outcomes.

Lopez made 32 starts last season and was one of only a handful to throw 180 IP. This is not to say he isn't a risk, every pitcher is a risk, but the issues he had in 2021 aren't a concern.