Finalizing keeper list

[CubFan]

12 team AL only 5x5 keeper auction league using OBP, W+QS and S+ 1/2H (last season it was S+H). 1 catcher league. Max of 8 keepers. First two years salary stays the same, thereafter 1,2 or 3 year extension at $5 increments/season. Around 25% draft day inflation. Keeprs due Mar 19

Current keeper list.....

Bichette $19
Ward $2,
Altuve $27
Mullins (extend 1 year @ $10)
Torkelson $1 (so far not having a good spring......eyes on the field say he looks the same as last year. Hinch gave him the dreaded vote of confidence the other day)
Ray (extend 1 year @ $13)
Jon Gray $4
Fairbanks $1

If Torkelson doesn't start hitting there's a chance he starts the season in AAA. Even if he doesn't would you favor protecting any of the following over him:

Jansen $1 (some concern for PAs. Say 1200 PAs split between Kirk, Belt and Jansen)
Johan Duran $1 (stud RP but Lopez getting first crack at closing and holds half their value vs last season)
Gausman $27 (starting to lean towards him as many of the top SPs will be protected and now Rodon and Glasnow will start the season on the IL and deGrom is an injury risk. Only Bieber and possibly Castillo (if thrown back into the auction) are all that is left of the top end pitching)
Kluber $2
Kerry Carpenter $1 (good pop but high K rate)

Thoughts?

[Todd Zola]

I'm personally finding a way to keep Gausman. He's in the no-brainer category for me. I'm kinda planting my flag there.

[CubFan]

Sorry to be a pest. Still on the fence with my keeper list (due Sunday at 6 pm)
Current keeper list:

Bichette $19
Ward $2,
Altuve $27
Mullins (extend 1 year @ $10)
Torkelson $1 (looking better in ST)
Ray (extend 1 year @ $13)
Jon Gray $4 (bit of an injury concern but TX could be sneaky good)
Fairbanks $1

Gausman looking good so far this Spring. He should have a positive regression on BABIP this year and now has a much better defensive OF behind him so now leaning towards keeping him. Torkelson hitting better. Gray has looked good as well. I've seen the LABR and Tout AL only auction results.

If I were to keep Gausman at $27 who would you NOT protect from the eight above? And would you extend Vlad 1 year at $44. If so who would you drop? Our league runs 25-30% inflation. My projections have Vlad at full value at $40 so he could go for $50ish in the auction. I have Gausman and Bieber full value at $22. Top end SP that will be available: deGrom, Rodon, Severino, Glasnow, Castillo. Three of those five are injury concerns. If Gausman is thrown back given the dearth of available top end SP it's feasible Gausman and Bieber could fetch low 30s.

[Todd Zola]

If Altuve's thumb is broken, you have your answer.

[CubFan]

&^%#$%#*@

Well that sucks if it's broken and I traded a $16 Pena for him 3 weeks ago. So, if he's out 6+ weeks (and I don't protect) would you not only protect Gausman but also Vlad? Drop Altuve and ???? Gray....Torkelson or stick with those two and throw Vlad back into the draft? Can't believe how this sucks. Guess better now than on Monday after the lists are in.

[CubFan]

Lots of last minute wheeling and dealing in the league.

Traded Ray $13 and Jason Adam $1 for Judge $40 (yes, regression is coming. 2022 was a monster career year. Hope is Judge stays healthy). Will need to allocate some decent $$ for another high end SP. Vlad is no longer an option to keep.

Final keeper list:

Judge $40
Mullins $10 (extend for 1 year)
Bichette $19
Ward $2
Torkelson $1
Gausman $27
Jon Gray $4
Fairbanks $1

Would you extend Mullins for 2 years at $15/yr?