Trade offered to me

[CubFan]

12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. Use OBP, W+QS and changing to S+1/2H. Can protect up to 8 players. 10 games to qualify for position. $260 team budget on auction day. Draft day inflation 25-35% for first half. Can keep players for 2 years at same salary. Thereafter can extend for 1, 2, or 3 years at $5 increments/yr. Any player signed to an extension can not be dropped.

Current keepers:
Bichette $19 (last year of extension so has to be kept)
Suarez $17
Altuve $27
Torkelson $1
Mullins $10 (will extend for 1 year extension)
Ray $13 (will extend for 1 year)
Jon Gray $4
Bautista $1 (late start to ST due to shoulder strengthening)

Other possible keepers:
Vlad $39 (needs an extension if kept...he'll likely go for 45-50 in draft, maybe someone really wants him and pays 50-55)
Jansen $1 (adding Belt muddies his pt)
Kerry Carpenter $1 (showed some good pop both in minors and MLB....but will he be a starter in the OF)
Fairbanks $1 (bit of an injury risk but TB just signed him to 3 year contract.....he is primary closer).......fallback keeper option for Bautista
Jason Adam $1
Duran $1 (when will he take over for Lopez?)

Been offered $16 Tucker (his contract extends thru 2024 season) for Vlad and Mullins. Vlad was on the outside looking in as a keeper mainly due to his high keeper cost of $44. Hate to trade away Mullins likely 30+ SBs but he's struggled against LHers and fear a pseudo platoon role is looming. Main negative for Tucker is he's projected to hit 6th, thus reducing his ABs and counting stats. Would you pull the trigger?

[Todd Zola]

I don't know if I'd make the deal, it seems fair. Here are some points to at least consider.

Tucker batted 6th 36 times last season. He hit 5th for 82 games and was 3rd/4th 28 times. I'm not concerned about a season in the six-hole.

I'm also less concerned about Mullins falling into a platoon.

It appears to me the deciding point is the willingness to pay Guerrero the extension. You have to consider what you can pick up in the auction with the salary difference of the two sides.

[CubFan]

Thanks for the lightening quick response Todd.

For clarification I wasn't initially planning on keeping Vlad at $44. I was looking at trying to get him back in the auction for $44 or less. So, in essence the trade is Tucker $16 for Mullins $10 and I'd have to fall back to my secondary options at CM. My keeper cost would increase by $6 for this season but I'd have Tucker for another year. I would need to replace Mullins SBs as Tucker won't steal as many. Does any of this sway you one way or another or still a flip of the coin?

[Todd Zola]

I can't say with 100% certainty without having a better feel for the league, but my sense is I'd prefer Tucker over Mullins, but prefer Vlad and Mullins over Tucker.

I prefer to freeze salary than deal with inflation, but having experience in this league is what matters most.

[CubFan]

Update…..traded Suarez $17 and Bautista $1 for Taylor Ward $2. A little concerned with news Bautista was doing shoulder strengthening and was a week or two behind. His shoulder shut him down at the end of last season. Have Fairbanks $1 to take Bautista’s place.

Updated protect list:
Ward $2
Mullins $10 (extended for only 1 year)
Altuve $27
Bichette $19 (last year of contract)
Torkelson $1
Ray $13 (extend for 1 year)
Jon Gray $4
Fairbanks $1

Tucker $16 (signed thru 2024) owner willing to trade him for Mullins $10 and Gausman $27. Wasn’t protecting Gausman but hoped to get him back at auction. Would you do that trade? Altuve, Mullins and Ward all leadoff which minimizes RBIs. I’d need to replace the loss of 15-20 SBs.

[Todd Zola]

If you're not keeping Gausman, it's the same offer, hence analysis as before.

[CubFan]

A bit of info I left out in my last post that probably is pretty important. One or both of Cole and Castillo will be protected plus McClanahan, Manoah, Cortes, Javier, Cease, Valdez, McKenzie, Ray. That leaves, DeGrom, Rodon, Glasnow (out till May 1?), Bieber and Gausman as the top arms available in the draft. The Tucker owner will be protecting Valdez. I'm protecting Ray and Jon Gray. So, given the dearth of top arms left am I shooting myself in the foot and strengthening the other owner too much by trading him Gausman and Mullins $10 for Tucker $16 (signed thru 2024)? BTW, he pulled his Vlad $44 and Mullins for Tucker offer.

And if I throw Gausman $27 back into the auction with so little quality of top end SP there is likely to be a bidding war for a couple of those arms. There are 2-3 owners with no quality SP protected. I usually anchor my staff with one stud SP. Guasman at $27 is at the top end of his inflation adjusted value. So, am I better off protecting him and dropping Torkelson $1 as my last keeper vs making the trade?

[Todd Zola]

Best I can do is reiterate I expect a big season from Gausman.