Never too early keeper advice

[CubFan]

12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. Use OBP, W+QS and changing to S+1/2H. Can protect up to 8 players. 10 games to qualify for position. $260 team budget on auction day. Draft day inflation 25-35% for first half. Can keep players for 2 years at same salary. Thereafter can extend for 1, 2, or 3 years at $5 increments/yr. Any player signed to an extension can not be dropped.

Possible keepers:

Vlad $39 (needs an extension if kept...he'll likely go for 45-50 in draft, maybe someone really wants him and pays 50-55)
Bichette $19 (last year of extension so has to be kept)
Suarez $17
Pena $16 (if he continues his post season run he'd go for $20+ in the auction)
Torkelson $1
Mullins $5 (I will extend him either for 1 yr/$10 or 2 yrs/$15)
Jansen $1 (hit well in a loaded lineup but where will he be in 2023?)
Kerry Carpenter $1 (showed some good pop both in minors and MLB....but will he be a starter in the OF)
Robbie Ray $8 (will extend for 1 yr/$13)
Bautista $1
John Gray $4
Fairbanks $1 (bit of an injury risk plus TB uses a committee most of the time but has the best stuff)
Jason Adam $1 (is he 1A or 1B in the committee?)
Duran $1 (will he be the defacto closer?)

My current thinking:
Bichette $19
Mullins 2 yrs/$15
Suarez $17 (dead ball didn't affect his power and fits better in OBP league)
Torkelson $1 (latest info is alot of his issues were mental....his head was swimming in stats in video. Going back to what got him there which are basics. Ton of upside)
Ray 1 yr/$13
Gray $4
Bautista $1

last spot....Pena, Carpenter, Fairbanks, Duran, Jansen

Thoughts on my top 7 and who to go with for the final keeper? Is Torkelson too much of a high risk/reward for a keeper?
Should I be keeping Vlad at $44?
Would packaging Duran and Pena for a $10 Arozarena be a fair trade?

[Todd Zola]

I'm in crunch mode for the 2021 launch, then I have First Pitch Arizona. I'll circle back mid-November.

[Todd Zola]

I have a few minutes so...

First seven look fine. I'd like another solid arm to help balance some of Ray's risk, but he's worthy of the extension.

I'm a Pena fan, he'd probably be my #8.

[CubFan]

Todd, thanks for your thoughts. Hadn't seen your post till today as I was waiting till after Thanksgiving to touch base.

Jon Gray at $4 was part of my plan to balance Ray although Gray is a bit of an injury concern. I'm seriously thinking of targeting an ace like Cole, Gausman (hoping he'll come at a discount due to his uncharacteristic issues with the longball and high WHIP......am thinking this year was an aberration), Bieber, or Castillo. Or drop a tier for Glasnow, Lynn. Catching a falling knife with Giolito or Berrios.

Thoughts on packaging Pena and Duran for Arozarena? Not sure if the other owner would be willing to do that.

[Todd Zola]

I can't judge trade equity - too many factors. That said, I'm considering it if I have Arozarena, but can't say it's a no-brainer.

Keep in mind, the balanced schedule should help AL East (Cole, Gausman) and hurt AL Central (Bieber).

[CubFan]

Thoughts on trading my $16 Pena for a $27 Altuve? Feel Altuve's salary is slightly below market before inflation. Our league inflation runs 30-35% for top end players. My concern with Pena and any second year player who had a very good season is the "sophmore slump". I suspect you don't buy into that. He's a free swinger who doesn't walk much and thus a drag on his OBP. His second half OBP was worse than his first half.

Semien, Brandon Lowe, Arraez, Polonco and Baez will be available in the draft. I'd still have Bichette as my SS.

[Todd Zola]

It's generally not a sophomore slump; it's most always organic regression.

Which way to go is a matter of risk aversion and ability to absorb the extra salary and what can be done with it.

Altuve is much safer, we don't know Pena's baseline. It comes down to the $11 difference.

[CubFan]

Been mulling over the idea of extending Vlad for 1 yr/$44. In looking at projections there is a big drop off at 1B between him and who will be available at auction. Looks like Rizzo, France, Abreu are the next tier down. Given our league inflation of around 35% those players will likely go for $27-$34. Vlad likely goes for $47-54. The other available big bats .360+ OBP, 35+ HR and triple digit RBI/R potential are Trout and Alvarez. Both are an injury risk. With Houston now saying they want Alvarez to play more OF it can be argued who is more likely to miss time. Vlad has stayed healthy.

I've only extended a contract into the $40+ zone once.....for Trout. Normally don't as it can hamstring one in the auction. Is Vlad at $44 worth consideration as my last keeper vs the others I noted earlier? Just spitballing now.

[Todd Zola]

Yes, worth considering. I don't see it limiting what can be done in the auction any more than having to pay inflated prices limits what one can do.

[CubFan]

With Moreno gone Jansen and Kirk will split time at C and rotate with Belt at DH. Projections I've seen have Jansen averaging around 450 PAs and 20+ HRs. Seems like injuries would be the main bug a boo in keeping him from getting there. I've got Jansen at $1. It's a 1C league. Raleigh, Rutschman and Kirk will be protected. Is Jansen a better value as my 8th keeper vs Vlad $44, $16 Pena, $1 Fairbanks or $1 Adam?

[Todd Zola]

Jansen is worth considering, AL catching is weaker than NL catching, so he's probably mid-pack among AL backstops.