When to cut bait

[alleyoops]

Around this point in the season (and after) it is very tempting to "cut bait" on players who have significantly underperformed their projections. I realize it's league contextual, and we're still in the "small sample size" period, but it is frustrating to see guys who were drafted high or cost significant $ in an auction getting outperformed by many who are available on the waiver wire. I find it difficult to drop these guys, because they've performed well in the past. And there's a cost to bench them, as those bench spots are useful, especially in h2h leagues. Guys on my teams who fit this are JBaez, THernandez, FReyes, CMorton, and to a lesser extent TO'Neill. Thoughts?

[Todd Zola]

There is no magic formula. I look at everyone individually, trying to uncover the reason for the slow start while comparing that to the likelihood the available players maintain something close to their level of production. Plate discipline and batted ball data (hard hit rate, etc) are a couple of the more useful indicators.

[alleyoops]

Hidden (or not so hidden) injuries can also be a factor, especially with pitchers. A couple of the guys who I listed have been dinged. Morton's probably the most likely to not get back to what he was, as father time could be catching up. Same with Nelson Cruz, who I didn't list. I think back to last year, when LCastillo and KHendricks were very bad to this point. Both came back with decent efforts the rest of the way. I'm sure there are many examples - some coming back, some not. In general, I'd think several years of strong performance should outweigh several months of bad. It's just hard to hang with these guys when they're "off". The good news is that they're offset by guys who are overperforming their projections - especially pitchers so far this year.

[Todd Zola]

Morton has pitched well in his last three starts.

Last season, Hendricks started out terribly, crushed for a spell in the middle but ended in another rut. His lack of dominance lessens his margin of error.

[alleyoops]

Thought I'd check in on the guys who I mentioned in the original post, who were off to very slow starts.

Baez - has been decent lately, showing some signs of life. Terrible OBP, but his counting stats have picked up. I've held him, and bench him when I can.
THernandez - doing well lately, after the bad start. Held him and he's been in my lineups.
Reyes - went on IL, has been mediocre since coming back. Hard to believe his power won't pick up, but it hasn't so far. I bench him when I can.
Morton - doing very well lately. Looking like a good hold/add.
O'Neill - had a little spurt before going on IL. Back soon. His counting stats weren't bad, but OBP and relative lack of power was hurting. Traded him for MPerez in one league, have him on IL in two others. I have a little more hope that he'll turn in good numbers the rest of the way than I do for Reyes and Baez.
Cruz - still underperforming my expectations, but not killing me. Held and in lineups.

Adding Straw to the debatable list, as he started well, but has been bad lately. The SBs help, but can't steal 1B. Batting low in the order in a bad lineup. Close to dropping him.

Thoughts on any of these guys' chances the rest of the way? Any that you'd dump now for a waiver wire guy (12 team mixed, OBP, short benches). Waiver guys: Aguilar, Belt, Peralta, Farmer, Kiner-Falefa.

[Todd Zola]

I'm willing to cut bait with anyone spending a lot of the first half on the IL (O'Neill). Injuries beget more injuries and there's the time it takes to shake off the rust.

Straw loses a ton of utility in the nine-hole. Depending on roster construct and category needs, cutting bait is absolutely defensible.

Reyes is the tough one for me, but he's hit 12 balls over 95 mph and 10 over 100 mph in July. This isn't the time to give up on him.

[alleyoops]

Thanks, Todd. I'm wondering where you get the exit velocity stats?

[Todd Zola]

I have access to a database with the info, so I haven't had to learn how to pull it from Statcast/Baseball Savant. It should be there.