Longoria for bruce and tavares

[Hambowen]

Was not offered this but based on conversations pretty sure it would get the deal done.

I get $5 Longoria

I give $2 Jay Bruce and $9 Willy Tavares

[cwk1963]

Do it.

[SteveB]

Yeah on first glance I say do it as well.

However it helps when you list additonional information like league make up IE 5x5, contract situations if any , stuff like that.

For instance say Bruce was frozen at 2 for the next 3 years and Longoria has to be thrown back after this one.

[shif6]

Clearly Longoria is a better bet than Bruce (good as Bruce is). I think the question turns on how much playing time Taveras should be expected to get and how much he is permitted to run. Given the combination of power and speed with Bruce/Taveras (and Bruce's upside) I do not think it obvious that the trade should be made and would also like to know the league rules and the other keepers you have.

[cwk1963]

I say no because Taveras is a one trick pony. His value is totally dependent on his legs. Anything goes wrong (as has the past 2 years) and there go the bags. Last year was an outlier, IMO. He's more likely to swipe 40-45 than 68 again. I'd rather look for SB 10-20 here and there and get something else for my money to go along with them.

[Hambowen]

Contract status is the same for all. 5x5 mixed 12 team league. $260 23 players

We keep 13 in this league and also 3 minors. so I would replace tavares with probably a $20 Cano if I decided he was worth it. Also a $10 Rowand would be in the mix.

Here is current player list if this helps. Bolded my guys I will definitely keep.

Molina, Bengie C SF 11
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL 15
Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA 12
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY 20
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL 15
Bruce, Jay RF CIN 2
Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA 40
Rios, Alex RF TOR 19
Taveras, Willy CF CIN 9
Winn, Randy RF SF 15
Ordonez, Magglio RF DET 20
Rowand, Aaron CF SF 10
Cueto, Johnny SP CIN 10
Santana, Johan SP NYM 34
Webb, Brandon SP ARI 27
Capps, Matt RP PIT 16
Rodney, Fernando RP DET 14
Rodriguez, Francisco RP NYM 27
Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL 6
Rowand, Aaron CF SF 10
Maine, John SP NYM 2
Saito, Takashi RP BOS 7
Soriano, Rafael RP ATL 5

Minors Pitchers Salary
Davis, Wade SP TB 2
Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK 5
Price, David SP TB 5

[cwk1963]

Even as a big Yankee supporter, I think I'll pass on Cano for $20. I think Cueto is a good play. Sure, he'll have his struggles but there's always the chance he has that breakout. Even if he doesn't, he'll give you a nice bunch of K and you have Johann and Webb to absorb the higher ratios. Maine is even interesting at only $2. Even Capps. While he won't get you an elite amount of saves with the Pirates, you really don't have too many guys to consider for the last spot. I'd still make the trade and go with 1 of Cueto, Maine or Capps - whoever you feel more comfortable with. If it was my choice, I'd take my chances with Cueto and his upside.

[shif6]

On Taveras, his batting average on balls in play was substantially lower than it has been for at least the last 4-5 years. If that goes up (as it likely will) his batting average goes up which gives him playing time. 40-45 stolen bases is not chopped liver particularly if it is accompanied by a batting average 15-20 points higher, and runs scored from the leadoff position.

[cwk1963]

On Taveras, his batting average on balls in play was substantially lower than it has been for at least the last 4-5 years. If that goes up (as it likely will) his batting average goes up which gives him playing time. 40-45 stolen bases is not chopped liver particularly if it is accompanied by a batting average 15-20 points higher, and runs scored from the leadoff position.

I agree that, if his BABIP returns to what it had been his BA will go up and I don't think that 40-45 SB is chopped liver. However, for my liking, I want more than that. If a player doesn't provide much in the way of RBI or HR, he better be a lock to hit pretty darn close to .300 for me. Like I said, I'd rather get 10-15 from multiple sources along with some HR and a pretty good BA. In Taveras's case, he hit .251 last year. That means he'd better hit about 25 points higher (not 15-20) for me to spend the money. But it's personal taste I guess and for mine I like Cueto, Capps or Maine better.

[da_big_kid_94]

I would definitely do this deal. I look at the 2009 Reds lineup (to date) and I see striking similarities between them and the 2008 Nationals.

1B- Votto
2B - Phillips
3B - Encarnacion
SS - Keppinger
C - Hernandez/?
OF - Bruce
OF - Taveras
OF - Dickerson/Hopper/Hairston

While keeping in mind they are playing in a very favorable hitter's park, I ask myself where the power is if Bruce doesn't blossom immediately? Votto has acquitted himself well so far but he still only drove in 84 runs. They need a 30 HR bat desperately - so they go out and get Tavaras? This team was the WORST BA team in the league last year - so you go out and get Taveras? A guy who hit .251 in Colorado - Hitter's Paradise? Forget BABIP ... I think that's a wasted stat for a guy who's main game is speed. Look at OBP - .308. Know what OFs were worse than that with a minimum of 300 ABs? Corey Hart, Michael Bourn, Jeff Francouer, Corey Patterson... that's it.

People envision this guy leading off .... but what if he hit's 7th or 8th? I make this deal and don't look back.

[shif6]

Powerful arguments, I agree. And I am prepared to confess error. But I would note that the lack of power in the Reds lineup could indicate that he will be given free reign to run though it would also suggest pessimism about projections for run scored. I think that his speed is precisely why his babip of last year is an outlier. But I also agree that his walk rate is bad and unlikely to change.
As to looking back, if he gets 500 at bats and climbs to respectability in batting average (he has hit .300), he will steal a ton of bases again and only amnesia will prevent you from looking back.
But yes, you guys are right. Make the trade.

[Hambowen]

Wanted to thank everyone for their feedback on this.

I sent through a couple offers and he came back with bruce and willy like I thought he would and we did the deal.

Now have a young infield of Fielder $15, Hanley $12, and Evan $5. Will only go up $5 each year and can keep fielder/hanley 3 more years and Evan 5 more.

[cwk1963]

Wanted to thank everyone for their feedback on this.

I sent through a couple offers and he came back with bruce and willy like I thought he would and we did the deal.

Now have a young infield of Fielder $15, Hanley $12, and Evan $5. Will only go up $5 each year and can keep fielder/hanley 3 more years and Evan 5 more.

NICE!!!!!

[Mojo Jojo]

for what it is worth i would do this deal also

in a heartbeat

[maxdad007]

Are you going to shop Chipper now and I would also consider Maine at $2, seems like a pretty good value.

[Hambowen]

Are you going to shop Chipper now and I would also consider Maine at $2, seems like a pretty good value.

Yes I am planning on shopping Chipper and seeing what is out there. Just hoping to find someone who needs a 3b and maybe get a better 1b for my corner spot in the deal.

Also thinking of seeing what is out there for either Webb or Johan. I have David Price as a minor leaguer that does not count against my cap. Would only trade 1 of them if I could get a top hitter at a good price.