Who to protect from an expansion draft?

[DMT_RJ]

Our Diamond Mind sim league is expanding from 16 to 20 teams so we're having an expansion draft and can only protect 10. When we have a player taken we can protect 1 more, up to 14, so 10-1-1-1-1. I'm defending champ and unfortunately guaranteed to lose 4 pretty solid players. I feel pretty confident of my top 8, but any input would be greatly appreciated. There are no contracts and we can keep forever. We use the previous year's stats to run the sim so this year is going to be bonkers with only 60 games of stats to rely on. I'm torn because my team should be competitive but another guy has Bieber, Bauer, Clevinger, and Bassitt and I don't see him losing with that staff.

C Realmuto (he really stunk last year in the sim but he's the clear #1 C)
1B Olson (putrid BA but power undeniable)
2B Marte (big drop-off from 2019 but still seems like a good bet to rebound)
3B Arenado (not a good year but obviously still a stud)
LF Ozuna
DH Cruz (I know he's old but he could hit 60 HRs in the sim [he hit 47 in last year's sim] so I can't leave him unprotected, can I?)
SP Woodruff
SP Scherzer (yes the end is nigh but I'll ride him until he falters, was my world series co-MVP)
~~~~~~~~~
Really torn on which 2 to choose from these for my protect list, but then how to rank them after as well:

RF Santander (metrics back up his performance and hitting prime age)
2B Altuve (similar to Arenado but his 2020 was truly awful and the cheating scandal seems to have really affected him. If I keep him, I can move Marte to CF because we're going with 1-game position eligibility this year)
CF Dylan Carlson (weak debut but I'll really be kicking myself if he lives up to his lofty expectations...will he though?)
SP Chris Paddack (he was stellar on my sim team this year but really struggled in real life. Baseball HQ likes his peripherals but both xERA and FIP are around 4 which is decent but not great)
RP Liam Hendricks (only the best closer in baseball but RPs are undervalued due to supply because we can use any RP as closer)
RP Josh Hader (also elite but he wasn't great last year and LHs get pounded...e.g., I had to bench him in the playoffs)
C Willson Contreras (was also the World Series co-MVP and as a Cubs fan it pains me but I can't justify keeping 2 Cs)
SP Zach Eflin (really intriguing, is he ready to take the next step?)
SP Adam Wainwright (will perform really well this sim season but obviously not a priority given his age)
SS Semien (so good in 2019 and I really don't like possibly not having a SS if he gets taken)
SP Patrick Corbin (blech what happened?...really not considering him but wanted to present all my options)
CF Jacoby Jones

How would you approach it? TIA

[Todd Zola]

I play Strat and Scoresheet but not Diamond Mind. Does defense matter? Are splits a factor? What one or two metrics do you feel are best to evaluate?

For instance, in Scoresheet, defense is a factor, I use OBP for hitters and WHIP for pitchers and splits matter a lot.

[DMT_RJ]

Yes, defense matters, and splits are a big factor, that's why LHPs a hugely downgraded.

As for metrics, I tend to emphasize OPS (and esp on-base % as well) for hitters and OPS against for pitchers along with as K:BB.

[Todd Zola]

One man's opinion...

Contreras will absolutely be taken - I'd decide if you can get someone back in a trade better than your 10th keeper. If so, I'd protect him and make that deal.

If you don't think you can get a fair return, my two are Semien and Paddack.

If Contreras isn't your first player taken (maybe they bite on Hendriks or Hader), I'd protect him. Then Carlson, Santander and Eflin. if you lose Contreras, I suppose Hendriks or Hader would be my 4th - not familiar enough with the format to differentiate.

Then...

The other reliever
Altuve
Corbin
(I think that covers all possibilities).

[DMT_RJ]

Thanks...I honestly wasn't even really considering Semien. I just traded Hader for a 2nd round pick.

Curious, are you down on Santander?

[Todd Zola]

Semien is even better as a Sim player, though I don't know how it scores defense.

I'm not down on Santander at all but even so, he's a compiler - very useful but not someone to sweat losing.

[DMT_RJ]

Makese sense, thanks! For defense, the game assigns ratings for range and error propensity. Semien is rated Av/113 meaning average range and slightly more likely to commit an error than normal (i.e. 100).

[Todd Zola]

OUCH - Semien's glove took a step back last year (-5 DRS after seasons of +12 and +14). Oh well.

[DMT_RJ]

Well, I managed to trade Realmuto and Eflin for Trea Turner. So my top 9 are now pretty much set with:

Turner
Woodruff
Ozuna
Arenado
Marte
Olson
Scherzer
Cruz
Contreras

And I think I agree with your recommendation to protect Paddack as well, who's already demonstrated success at the MLB level.

[Todd Zola]

Wow -- so that leaves 2 OF or a 2B and OF, both of which can be handled with a platoon in a SIM, assuming you set a lineup v RHP and another v LHP.

The batting order shapes us beautifully, assuming Ketel Marte rebounds.

The only weakness is Ozuna's defense since Cruz is locked in at DH.

This is getting me pumped for my Scoresheet league

[DMT_RJ]

Yep, platoons are a given with separate lineups for LHPs and RHPs...I hear ya, I'm a big fan of this league.