Keeper Inflation

[odysseus81]

Forgive me if this is a post that is addressed elsewhere, but I am wondering if there is a way to figure inflation value for individual values in an auction keeper league.

Thanks!

[Guest]

The simple equation for inflation is:

(Remaining dollars to spend at auction) / (remaining value left in the positiively valued player pool) = Inflation.

Also seen as : (Total dollars to spend - protected cost) / (total value in the pool - protected values) - 1

So if you have 3000 to spend in an auction league-wide (10 teams, $300 cap) and $1000 of player value is protected for $500, then inflation would be (3000-500) / (3000 - 1000) - 1, or 2500/2000, or 1.25 - 1 = .25, for 25% inflation.

You'd then take your uninflated values and multiply them by 1.25.

We will have articles on this as pre-season content but that's the basics.

[odysseus81]

That is very helpful...thanks. I look forward to the articles.

[Todd Zola]

Gary and I are hashing out who will write what piece, I think he may get the inflation assignment so I will offer a quick comment as this is one of my pet peeves with respect to inflation, and it will be discussed in the essay either way.

Though the above formula is universally accepted as the measurement of inflation and is mathematically defensible, in practical terms, what mostly happens in keeper auctions is the top-end talent costs even more than the inflation-corrected price. Sure, you can wait to pay when the market price equals the inflated price, but the VAST MAJORITY of the catching up is in the <$10 range, which means you will be leaving enough money to bail-out the auto makers on the table.

Realize that the above equation is really only accurate before the auction begins. Assuming the first player goes for more than the corrected price, the level of inflation drops. Chances are a bunch of the early players will go for more than the inflated price, dropping inflation even more. People that wait because they are refusing to pay even the inflated price do not know to correct for the new inflation, and bid the next tier to the price based on the initial inflation, which is "too much" based on the current inflation. So if you adjust lower and still refuse to bid over that price, you will lose as others will. In order to use up all your money, you need some players in these top tiers. You need to decide if you want to "overpay" for the top tier or next tier in order to spend all your money.

[Hambowen]

Todd you are right in what you are saying and in keeper leagues with high inflation I always feel you need to "overpay" for top talent to spend your money. Something i do that I would love if you could expand/refine/make better is I take how many players usually go for $1 in my leagues and extract all of that value before the auction starts and put it towards the top 15-20% of players left in the draft. I feel this gives me a far better picture of what the top players will go for in a draft.

Every $5-$8 player that goes for $1 in the end game will add to the total inflation but it is too late at that point to make a difference. I just try to capture that before the draft based on the history of the league and how many players go for $1. I feel this gives me the comfort to "overpay" on the top end talent because I know a certain percent of the $5-8 guys will be available for $1 end game.

Would like to know people's thoughts on how to refine this or if I should be doing it at all.

[Todd Zola]

Todd you are right in what you are saying and in keeper leagues with high inflation I always feel you need to "overpay" for top talent to spend your money. Something i do that I would love if you could expand/refine/make better is I take how many players usually go for $1 in my leagues and extract all of that value before the auction starts and put it towards the top 15-20% of players left in the draft. I feel this gives me a far better picture of what the top players will go for in a draft.

Every $5-$8 player that goes for $1 in the end game will add to the total inflation but it is too late at that point to make a difference. I just try to capture that before the draft based on the history of the league and how many players go for $1. I feel this gives me the comfort to "overpay" on the top end talent because I know a certain percent of the $5-8 guys will be available for $1 end game.

Would like to know people's thoughts on how to refine this or if I should be doing it at all.

This is a concept I am a HUGE fan of doing and have an essay on the topic in the "Toddy-do" list. Probably first week in March.

[Hambowen]

Great I can't wait to read it. I have been doing it in a very rough way but feel the numbers I come out with really helps me. I know it can be done better and cleaner and make the numbers more accurate so can't wait to read it.

[Todd Zola]

The only "numbers" presented will be done in an effort to convince the reader why it is advantageous to go the extra buck...or five

The actual amount, and to whom, is still largely intuitive.

That said, this time next year, we (mostly Gary) may have something more quantitative that focuses on a category target and how the available players can help you attain that target -- their "value" will fluidly adjust based on your team and the available players in the pool. As an extreme, if you have hit all your targets but are short 20 SB, the "system" will shoot the value up for all SB. A 0 HR, 20 SB guy will be higher than a 50 HR, 10 SB guy.

[CubFan]

......in practical terms, what mostly happens in keeper auctions is the top-end talent costs even more than the inflation-corrected price. Sure, you can wait to pay when the market price equals the inflated price, but the VAST MAJORITY of the catching up is in the <$10 range, which means you will be leaving enough money to bail-out the auto makers on the table.

BINGO!!!! Couldn't agree with you more. I hate sucking up

In our league which has been going strong for about 15 years I've also noticed that there is a tendency to not overbid on the first half dozen or so players. That is, owners tend to bid up to close to inflation adjusted values. Then after we've had a chance to assess that "hey, a couple of studs just went for less than what I thought" or "some serious SBs/HRs/etc just left the table" prices start to go over inflated values. (I recall reading an essay a few years back that proposed getting a few of your players in the very early going. Since both my short and long term memory has started to fail me as I get up in years I can't recall if the essay was on the old Mastersball site.) This will last through about the middle rounds or whenever the high single $$ players come up for bidding.

[infiniteloop]

So I printed out the pdf on Keeper Leagues and the CVRC to adjust for inflation. On the second page - Hitting CVRC area, step one says to: 1. Determine step 5 as done above. and then 2. Divide that number by #teams and enter into Salary Cap, cell E27.

Don't you mean? 1. Determine step 4 as done above, and 2. Divide that number by #teams and enter into Salary Cap, cell E27 - since this the the remaining average money that owners have in the draft?

[infiniteloop]

Additionally, in Hitting CVRC step 4, you say enter still-needed catchers into cell C14, and still-needed non-catchers into cell C21. On the spreadsheet, it says above those two cells: LEAVE BLANK. Are these the correct cells?

[Todd Zola]

So I printed out the pdf on Keeper Leagues and the CVRC to adjust for inflation. On the second page - Hitting CVRC area, step one says to: 1. Determine step 5 as done above. and then 2. Divide that number by #teams and enter into Salary Cap, cell E27.

Don't you mean? 1. Determine step 4 as done above, and 2. Divide that number by #teams and enter into Salary Cap, cell E27 - since this the the remaining average money that owners have in the draft?

Aw frick, nice catch, yes, sorry.

[Todd Zola]

Additionally, in Hitting CVRC step 4, you say enter still-needed catchers into cell C14, and still-needed non-catchers into cell C21. On the spreadsheet, it says above those two cells: LEAVE BLANK. Are these the correct cells?

When you flip it to customize, you will see it change to enter number