How to project quality starts?

[paradox]

My points based h2h league just changed the way we award pitcher points from 15 points for a win to 10 points for a win and 5 points for a quality start. Is there any good way to project quality starts? I know some sites do this, but I don't know if they are founded it anything?

[uharchmajor]

My points based h2h league just changed the way we award pitcher points from 15 points for a win to 10 points for a win and 5 points for a quality start. Is there any good way to project quality starts? I know some sites do this, but I don't know if they are founded it anything?

My league does 9 points for a W and 5 for a QS and I tend to ignore QS to a certain extent. Always nice to have, but not really needed. I mostly look at a pitcher with high K, low ERA and WHIP. You know, what everybody else is looking for.

Just a quick look at 2008..hardly enough data to base a strategy on, but a look non the less.

Lastyear's Top 25 in QS
1. Santana, Johan SP NYM
2. Lincecum, Tim SP SF
3. Sabathia, CC SP NYY
4. Webb, Brandon SP ARI
5. Buehrle, Mark SP CHW
6. Halladay, Roy SP TOR
7. Haren, Dan SP ARI
8. Hamels, Cole SP PHI
9. Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA
10. Greinke, Zack SP KC
11. Lee, Cliff SP CLE
12. Santana, Ervin SP ANA
13. Oswalt, Roy SP HOU
14. Shields, James SP TB
15. Saunders, Joe SP ANA
16. Dempster, Ryan SP CHC
17. Cain, Matt SP SF
18. Lilly, Ted SP CHC
19. Meche, Gil SP KC
20. Mussina, Mike SP NYY
21. Lannan, John SP WAS
22. Volquez, Edinson SP CIN
23. Billingsley, Chad SP LA
24. Lester, Jon SP BOS
25. Lowe, Derek SP ATL

The difference between #1 and #25? 8 QS. - ERA generally 3.50 and below
Disregarding the top 3, Johan, Tim and CC, the difference is cut in half at only 4 QS.

The difference between #26 and #60? 4 QS. - ERA generally 3.50 and above
The difference between #61 and #90? 2 QS. - ERA generally 4.00 and above

If 6 QSs is going to separate #26 from #90, you are only looking at 30 points in a season. Averages out to barely over 1 point a week.