Some NFBC Drafting Thoughts for the Weekend

[viper]

I realize the satellite leagues are somewhat different but many of the same people draft both and I feel the overall trends will remain the same. Here are observations from my three satellite drafts. Do what you wish with them but don't say you were surprised if they happen.

1. Starting off with a strong suggestion, have and use the tiers approach. It is the only way to see where concentrations or gaps in position players really occur.

2. Have some means to identify players with above average skills at specific categories. I tracked HRs, SBs and AVG but you could do whatever you like. As the draft proceeds, it become critical to quickly see who is available with power, average or speed. You will see that average ends around Polanco and that major power end with Pena although there are several 28+ HR guys later in the draft. Just don't think you can make a power charge after about the 10th round.

3. Expect about 100 hitters and 50 pitchers to be gone when round 10 ends. It has been this way for five years.

4. Closers-in-waiting will go 2-3 rounds before you really think they should. Plus, enough at each table will be aware of the various injuries befalling closers to include some that may happen on Saturday morning. Check Rotoworld or Rotowire or your site of choice for last second injury updates.

5. people will reach two tiers for middle infielders rather than taking what is available around rounds 12-15. Whatever their reach level is, they will never get it back.

6. Mauer goes later than his dollar value suggests. The remaining 5-6 top catchers go about where their dollar value suggests. Then the next 5-8 go before their value. Don't ask me why but it seems to be the case. If you wait and wait, realize that only 31 catchers are likely to be drafted. Only the team with Wieters should even consider a backup. Once you get past the top 15-18 catchers, I would personally suggest to just wait until like round 28 but that is me.

7. Speed will go before it seems it should. this is especially true once you reach the single digit dollar players. Everyone reaches for speed. If you can get speed for value earlier in the draft, you have to at least give it a thought. However, power is likely more valuable in the long run than speed.

8. About half a dozen $10+ outfielders will be available when all the other remaining position players are under $8 and $4 in the most expensive MI remaining.

9. My personal take it that desirable corner infielders is the commodity that is gone first. Sure, some names are left but solid counting stats are no longer there from a position you really want to get that power.

10. Guzman and Polanco go later than dollar value suggests. Dunn and Chris Young [OF] go earlier.

11. Papelbon is going late 4th. However, one of Todd's five will likely be available at the end of the 6th. In my Tuesday night draft, I got Rivera at 6.11. I think he was the last remaining of the Papelbon tier.

12. If you do not have a helper/buddy with you, get one. So much happens you need a second set of eyes. Except for the cost and a few other things, I would love just attending one of these against a helper to a team or for the guy running one of the many drafts.

13. Finally, have fun and enjoy.

[Badger]

Good stuff. I have an NFBC Online draft next week.

[maddog]

beauty viper,tyvm.drafting in one this sun.

[Todd Zola]

couple quickies before I board my red-eye hone from Vegas and seeing the results of over 15 drafts...

If you have pick 10-15, you might be shocked at who is available.

most figured there was a consensus top-9 with Rollins and Tex as 8/9, but I almost can promise someone jumps in and pushes someone to you.

Howard/hamilton/Kinsler were the most prominent guys to push the others down

THROW YOUR ADP OUT THE WINDOW!!!

if you want him take him and don't think twice because someone else will.

[maddog]

easy to see why howard is going high as he will likely lead the majors in HRs.and hamilton and kinsler are hitting in texas.

[viper]

couple quickies before I board my red-eye hone from Vegas and seeing the results of over 15 drafts...

If you have pick 10-15, you might be shocked at who is available.

most figured there was a consensus top-9 with Rollins and Tex as 8/9, but I almost can promise someone jumps in and pushes someone to you.

Howard/hamilton/Kinsler were the most prominent guys to push the others down

THROW YOUR ADP OUT THE WINDOW!!!

if you want him take him and don't think twice because someone else will.

It is almost the exception rather than the rule when people go as expected. In my 3rd satellite draft - post AROD injury - Lincecum was taken at 4.

[aburt19]

couple quickies before I board my red-eye hone from Vegas and seeing the results of over 15 drafts...

If you have pick 10-15, you might be shocked at who is available.

most figured there was a consensus top-9 with Rollins and Tex as 8/9, but I almost can promise someone jumps in and pushes someone to you.

Howard/hamilton/Kinsler were the most prominent guys to push the others down

THROW YOUR ADP OUT THE WINDOW!!!

I agree that there appears to be more variance in the last half of the first round than last year. With that being said,
the ADP has some usefullness for the latest that a player was drafted. Drafting 13th in a satellite next week, I look at
the chances of someone like Rollins and Tex dropping to that spot. The latest that Teixeira has been drafted in the 31
drafts was 14th and latest that Rollins was drafted was also 14th. Just guessing, but I figure that they went 13th or later
maybe 5-7 times out of 31. If they fall to 13th, I would be thrilled, but I would guess the chances of one dropping that far are
about 20%. Kinsler has probably the best chance of slipping to 13th, but I don't figure the chances of that are more than
about 15-20%.

[Todd Zola]

The ADP comment was in general, not just for the first round. But basically, the lesson is don't assume anything with your first round pick, be fully prepared to take a present that falls AND to be able to adjust and proceed accordingly.

Honestly, if you want your guy, just take him. And make sure he does what you think he will.

I have decided to jump into a couple of post main event satellites if someone wants a piece of me

[Badger]

I have pick 12 (out of 12) in my NFBC Online league. Hoping Utley slides to me.