Who are the rookies really worthy drafting

[viper]

There are a bunch of possibilities and a few will go in the middle rounds but, in reality, there are seldom many rookies you are willing to gamble on when push comes to shove.

Consider that your roster slots are all needed but possibly one or two. Who are the rookies you would hold in a redraft league?

The obvious two are Price and Wieters. I wonder if that isn't the complete list. I think players like Travis Snider, Elvis Andrus, Cameron Maybin, Taylor Teagarden, and Tommy Hanson are question marks at best and mostly likely a year or two away from truly contributing. But I wonder how others feel.

Remember my premise is you are willing to sacrifice a roster spot for these guys. Don't assume there is a minor's list of players or that you have an unlimited number of excess roster slot.

[msugray]

Who are the rookies you would hold in a redraft league?

Price and Wieters. Travis Snider, Elvis Andrus, Cameron Maybin, Taylor Teagarden, and Tommy Hanson

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL- They are giving him a ton of spring training AB to earn his way onto roster, but I'm don't think he's done much with the opportunity.

Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, CLE- Not much room for him at the moment. Choo's injury does not look significant. I question whether Ben Francisco is a long-term answer. Cleveland already jammed at 1B between Garko/V. Martinez

Rick Porcello, P, DET- Tigers have all sorts of rotation trouble. Tigers have promoted pitchers agressively (Zumaya, Verlander, Bonderman). I don't if they've been wise in that regard or not. Chance of making opening day roster. Suspicious K rate last year in High-A, but everything else about him looks good.

Jordan Zimmerman, P, WAS- I know it's WAS, but their offense doesn't look horrible.

Brett Gardner, OF, NYY- Source of SB on the bench if he gets PT.


Those are some of the names that interest me in addition to your list.

HOWEVER, I share your concerns on rostering the next great thing. I won't usually use more than 1-2 roster spots on a prospect in a redraft, active bench league if I roster any at all.

In 2007, I rostered Yovani Gallardo and Brian Wilson. They were both good that year, but Brian Wilson didn't pitch for the Giants until the first or second week of Aug. and I had waived him long before he recorded his first Save because I need the roster spot.

I will be looking at some prospects this year, but they will be players that have a job opening day OR likely a short stay in the minors. I'm not interested in rostering a rookie that has uncertainty about playing at all this year.

[Mickey4081]

I find it so much easier to pass on the rookies unless it's around the last pick. I've bit the dust on a few rookies in the past and ended up releasing them within a few weeks. I don't like to waste roster space. If I was going to roll the dice on one or two it's Wieters or Price.

[leesgreenberg]

I could use a little help folks. I "adopted" the last place team in a dynasty league (max 4 year contracts). Several teams are stock piled with talent they got cheap, so i can't afford to buy current stars and many of this years "emerging" studs are gone (weiters, rasums, maybin, etc).

so, I need to find 3-6 guys I can get cheap (under 5) to hold for 4 years and play for 2011 (I doubt I can get enough studs to play for 10). Its a H2H format.

I'm big on Anderson, Cahill, Posey and Hanson. Ok, I live in the bay area and that's my best info.

Is Andrus worth the flier in my situation? which other hitters should I really target. I'm pretty good at spotting talent in MLB early but in this league, FA pick-ups do not carry year to year.

thanks

[Todd Zola]

There are a bunch of possibilities and a few will go in the middle rounds but, in reality, there are seldom many rookies you are willing to gamble on when push comes to shove.

Remember my premise is you are willing to sacrifice a roster spot for these guys. Don't assume there is a minor's list of players or that you have an unlimited number of excess roster slot.

Easy -- ZERO

[viper]

quit beating around the bush - tell us what you really think

[msugray]

There are a bunch of possibilities and a few will go in the middle rounds but, in reality, there are seldom many rookies you are willing to gamble on when push comes to shove.

Remember my premise is you are willing to sacrifice a roster spot for these guys. Don't assume there is a minor's list of players or that you have an unlimited number of excess roster slot.

Easy -- ZERO

Todd,
Does this mean you would not be willing to roster Wieters? Or is it the likely cost of acquisition that would deter you from allocating a roster spot to him?
I'm not a huge fan of rookies either. Just curious about your feelings on the risk/reward of rostering Wieters if (big IF) the price is right.

If your answer is a copy/paste of "Easy -- ZERO", no further reply required.

[Todd Zola]

The question implied it is a draft and hold league. Under those conditions, I would not take any rookie.

Wieters is an interesting case. The reports are obviously glowing. Everyone wants to appear to be smarter than the other guy by having the next big thing on their roster. But the kid has not swung at a pitch thrown by a real MLB pitcher in a game that counts yet. He plays a position that requires more focus than any on defense, as he has to learn his staff and the other 150 or so AL batters.

This is a case of what it says in my sig -- the right call is to be cautious and let someone else incur the risk. You will be right 9 of 10 times. I am willing to concede success to someone else if this is that 10th time.

Obviously, I will take anyone if the price is right. But with Wieters, I know it will not be in the range I would be willing to go, single digits in an auction or 15th round in a draft. I just finished touring 7 cities with the gang at Baseball HQ and we put Wieters up for bid, using an AL only 5x5 league as the context, he went for minimum 15, up to 25 in Wash DC. No thanks.

[cwk1963]

The question implied it is a draft and hold league. Under those conditions, I would not take any rookie.

Wieters is an interesting case. The reports are obviously glowing. Everyone wants to appear to be smarter than the other guy by having the next big thing on their roster. But the kid has not swung at a pitch thrown by a real MLB pitcher in a game that counts yet. He plays a position that requires more focus than any on defense, as he has to learn his staff and the other 150 or so AL batters.

This is a case of what it says in my sig -- the right call is to be cautious and let someone else incur the risk. You will be right 9 of 10 times. I am willing to concede success to someone else if this is that 10th time.

Obviously, I will take anyone if the price is right. But with Wieters, I know it will not be in the range I would be willing to go, single digits in an auction or 15th round in a draft. I just finished touring 7 cities with the gang at Baseball HQ and we put Wieters up for bid, using an AL only 5x5 league as the context, he went for minimum 15, up to 25 in Wash DC. No thanks.

WOW!! I'd never do anything like that. Let someone else. I'll take the extra $15+ that I won't spend on a catcher and put it someplace a lot safer.

Question - Was that a mock? How much is he going for in real auctions - AL only, mixed?

[Todd Zola]

It was during our presentation, part of an interactive slide. We asked them to pretend it was an AL only 5x5 auction and we put Wieters up for bid.

[50 Desert Eagles]

In my 20 team 7x7 mixed draft, Weiters was taken 89th overall. He was the third catcher taken, just after Mccann and Martin. Pablo was taken 143rd. I took Napoli at around 200th. If you want to put it more in prespective, I took Mariano Rivera 90th, just after Weiters. Now compare the difference in Weiters vs Napoli at year end......taken 111 picks later. I would love to have Weiters....but I would take a high end RP everytime over a Catcher prospect.

[Hambowen]

Ya people are not picking to win when it comes to Wieters. They are picking to have Wieters. It is amazing how over the top people are on prospects now.