Help... Keeper question, rule change has changed my keepers.

[bsnipes]

So I posted about keepers before and trout was one of my keepers but we are looking at changing the rules to no 1st and 2nd rd keepers from last years draft to make the league stronger. With that said I need some help now deciding who I am keeping.Its a 10 team keeper league with only 3 keepers, this will be our first year keeping players. This is also a 2 catcher league. The keeper rules are that you keep the player based on where they were drafted the previous year. I finished in 2nd place last year so i have the 9th pick of the draft. It is a 5x5 mixed rotisserie league.

My potential keepers are:
Jose Abreu: 13th rd
Anthony Rendon: 22nd rd
Corey Dickerson: Last round
Julio Terahn: 7th rd
Madison Bumgarner: 5th rd
Steven Strausburg: 3rd
Kyle Seager: 7th rd
Salvador Perez: 10th rd
Rusney Castillo: Last Round

[da_big_kid_94]

With that rule change, your top 3 are your keepers.

[bsnipes]

Any other opinions? Im not as sure that dickerson is a lock.

[bsnipes]

With that rule change, your top 3 are your keepers.

Can you give me a reason why? I love Rusney and feel like his upside is through the roof but may be falling to in love with him. Dickersons good but for some reason I don't believe in it long term. Would love to hear why you think he's the best choice. Thanks

[da_big_kid_94]

Sure ...what's he done ....not every Cuban comes up as Abreu or Puig. Let us remember there were HUGE question marks about Abreu in spring training last year that washed away through the benefit of hindsight.

Dickerson may be a flash in the pan ... he may not. I do know he has at least accomplished something at the major league level and he's going to play half his games at Coors. He has a job waiting for him ... Castillo has done nothing yet and is just a bag of potential at this point. Just because the Dodgers paid $26 mil for Guerrero doesn't mean he's worth it. He couldn't beat out a guy they didn't even want last year. So it boils down to a guy who has performed at the ML level and one who has not. I'll take history over potential considering they are both last round picks.

[bsnipes]

Sure ...what's he done ....not every Cuban comes up as Abreu or Puig. Let us remember there were HUGE question marks about Abreu in spring training last year that washed away through the benefit of hindsight.

Dickerson may be a flash in the pan ... he may not. I do know he has at least accomplished something at the major league level and he's going to play half his games at Coors. He has a job waiting for him ... Castillo has done nothing yet and is just a bag of potential at this point. Just because the Dodgers paid $26 mil for Guerrero doesn't mean he's worth it. He couldn't beat out a guy they didn't even want last year. So it boils down to a guy who has performed at the ML level and one who has not. I'll take history over potential considering they are both last round picks.

I totally agree with you and it is a big risk, but do you think the risk is worth what he could be? I am trying to read everything out there on castillo and I'm realizing quickly that he's a polarizing character. Zola sees his upside as Marte (who i love), who do you see as an comparable comp? I feel like my reason for not wanting Dickerson is dumb because winning should motivate my keeper choices over who i find boring and who gets me excited, but if honest Dickerson bores me. Is there anyone else on my roster that is remotely intriguing? Other players would be:

Kolton Wong: Last Round
Steve Pearce: Last Round
Greg Holand: 10th Round
Julio Terahn: 7th Round
Stephen Strausurg: 4th Round
Madison Bumgarner: 5th Round
Kyle Seager: 8th Round

[da_big_kid_94]

In a league such as you describe, I go away from my normal tendencies and look for cheap bats. In a league such as this, I feel I can find pitchers easier ...especially when the ones I'm thinking about keeping are high rounders. Wong has some interesting traits ...but quite frankly, not at the expense of Dickerson.

Reading on Castillo is worthless IMHO.Some people do it because they have nothing else to fall back on. If reading's all you got ...then you have nothing to fall back on. In business, when one gets promoted , the first thing one must learn is to stop doing the job you WERE doing. Major leagues can shop up myths real fast. Dice - K had a gyro ball ....wonder whatever happened to that? All these guys were fish in a different sea. So, someone writes some stuff to stir up imaginations. What I do know is when one gets to the bigs, THAT is day one of your experience. All the other stuff is just history.

There's no comp because he hasn't done anything yet. Like my old man says..."If it were about past performances, you just read the Racing Form and bet horses accordingly. Unfortunately, that idea goes out the window when they actually run the race. Especially if the horses ain't running in the places they did so good or bad at anymore".

[Captain Hook]

OTOH Castillo was in the majors even if for a few September at bats and looked good; he also played a little in the Arizona Fall League and looked very good before a slight injury and I believe a trip to winter ball down south

[Todd Zola]

Several comments on the recent discussion....

Yeah, I said I see Castillo's ceiling as Marte, but I also said his floor is Leonys Martin. His most likely scenario is in between.

I have some serious concerns with Corey Dickerson. His strikeout rate is rather high while his walk rate is low. This means he's even more reliant on sustaining a BABIP and HR/FB much higher than league average if he wants to replicate last season's performance. I have a hard time believing a repeat of his .360 BABIP and near 20 percent HR/FB rate - Coors or no Coors. On the other hand, he's likely to play more which in essence makes up for the lost production in terms of raw numbers. So perhaps similar counting stats with a lower average is what to expect.

In terms of my new-found philosophy with respect to risk, I admit this is coming from the context of a guy playing mostly high-stakes leagues or industry showcase leagues where no one cares who comes in second. It's win or go home.

All advice is contextual and should be framed with the confines of one's own league. If I was faced with this decision in an NFBC keeper league, I would keep Castillo.

That's not to say Castillo is the right answer -- it's not one size fits all. Do you need the 95% percentile projection of Castillo to win or will the 50th percentile projection of Dickerson (factoring in some regression) get it done?

That said....

I have a hard time not grabbing Kolten Wong as my last keeper.

[bsnipes]

I think you make great points and it's why I'm leaning to Castillo but recently I have started thinking about Wong. If this was your team who would you keep? Wong interest me but I'm not sure if I know enough about him. What do you think his value is this year?

[Todd Zola]

I don't think in terms of value - I think in terms of potential. Our projection and profile sums it up pretty clearly.

[bsnipes]

So out of my options for my third keeper do you see wongs value and position scarcity higher than rusney?

[Todd Zola]

Again - I don't believe in the notion of value - I believe in potential.

Position scarcity is a myth, it doesn't exits.

I think when all is said and done, your final roster will look better with Wong than with Castillo. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if you got Castillo back.

[bsnipes]

Again - I don't believe in the notion of value - I believe in potential.

Position scarcity is a myth, it doesn't exits.

I think when all is said and done, your final roster will look better with Wong than with Castillo. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if you got Castillo back.

Ok so things have changed i was offered Nolan Arenando for Rusney Castillo, Arenado is a 19th round pick... To me this is a no brainer Arenando is a stud in the making and is more proven than Rusney. Do you believe this is best for the make up of my team or is wong still the better value?

[bsnipes]

Ok so things have changed i was offered Nolan Arenando for Rusney Castillo, Arenado is a 19th round pick... To me this is a no brainer Arenando is a stud in the making and is more proven than Rusney. Do you believe this is best for the make up of my team or is wong still the better value? Whats your take on Arenado?

[Captain Hook]

Ok so things have changed i was offered Nolan Arenando for Rusney Castillo, Arenado is a 19th round pick... To me this is a no brainer Arenando is a stud in the making and is more proven than Rusney. Do you believe this is best for the make up of my team or is wong still the better value? Whats your take on Arenado?

I like Arenado quite a bit and given position and round I would make the swap - you gain power and lose speed but Arenado assuming he can stay healthy is the more proven commodity