matching extension lengths

[mjlewis]

10-team NL-only 5x5. I have to extend all of Goldschmidt, Carpenter, and CGomez. Goldschmidt and Carpenter are currently at $5, Gomez at $10. Extensions are $5/year. Is there any reason to think about extending them all the same number of years and assume that when those all expire I'll go into rebuilding or should I assume that I'll probably end up trading some of them and just give the extensions that feel right?

[Captain Hook]

10-team NL-only 5x5. I have to extend all of Goldschmidt, Carpenter, and CGomez. Goldschmidt and Carpenter are currently at $5, Gomez at $10. Extensions are $5/year. Is there any reason to think about extending them all the same number of years and assume that when those all expire I'll go into rebuilding or should I assume that I'll probably end up trading some of them and just give the extensions that feel right?

Their individual extensions have nothing to do with each other - if you do them together you will be shortchanging the likely best options for the team

Frankly the only one I would extend is Goldschmidt who is clearly the best and likely to have several more years or excellent production (see my article on "Mike Trout Salary" and you will see an easy method to find out what works best for Goldie

I would certainly NOT extend Matt Carpenter - that was one year of elite production at 2b but will he do it again this year? And at 3b will numbers less than that be excellent?

Frankly I think the best value to your team is not extending Carpenter and CarGo2 but getting Maximum value from them this year and giving you more money to spend at auction. In addition you give yourself the opportunity to either Win or if things don't go your way to trade them this year as expiring contracts and get good young assets for next year and beyond.

[Trav The Ump]

Yah I'm of the same mind, unless its a bonafide top ten guy I'm always nervous about extending guys. Take the profit, spend it at the auction and try to win THIS year. Teams that keep on eye on the future never win in the present.

The other thing is one blown knee and all that strategy is out the window.

[mjlewis]

Trav, do you not think Gomez is a bonafide top ten guy in NL-only? Possibly I am putting too much faith in the MB projections...

[da_big_kid_94]

Trav, do you not think Gomez is a bonafide top ten guy in NL-only? Possibly I am putting too much faith in the MB projections...

OMG NO! This is a LIFETIME .255 hitter. Projections are nice but that's what they are ...projections. Goldie, Freeman, Votto, CarGo, Braun (yup ..much as I hate to), Tulo, your favorite Dodger here, Posey, Mc Cutcheon, Wright, Harper, Desmond, Zimmerman, etc. I think Gomez is the fourth best roto option on his TEAM (Segura, Braun and Ramirez).

And I've been doing NL onlys for 28 years. Not an expert .... but I play one in my own world. No ... he's not top 10.

[Trav The Ump]

I trust in the Kid, I don't follow NL other than the highlight shows so I'm not the guy to weigh in.

My biggest thing is, play for the year you are in. Who knows if a guy gets traded, blows a knee, blows an elbow. You'll get to next year and the year after when you get there. Try to win this year and if keeping those guys at uber-low prices gives you a huge advantage at the auction why not try and cushion your room for error this year? Just in case someone gets hurt or sucks.

[mjlewis]

huh. For what it's worth, http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp has him as the 11th guy off the board from the NL, and the only expert NL-only auction result I can find so far (http://www.faketeams.com/2014/2/21/5432 ... t-analysis) has him as the eighth most expensive guy. Granted it's only been two years of improved power/average...

[Captain Hook]

Well obviously our projections have him in the Top Three in the NL but even if you take away a dollar he would still be Top Five and certainly the power/speed combination he has displayed makes him a Top Ten for NL .... That has nothing to do with why I would personally not extend him - I think his BAvg will go down some - who knows? Whether he has a $25 season or a $35 season he would be a HUGE bargaining chip IF you have to trade him and likely his price would never be higher - IF you are doing well he will be earning you a LOT of profit.

I wouldn't give up on either possibility

[da_big_kid_94]

huh. For what it's worth, http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp has him as the 11th guy off the board from the NL, and the only expert NL-only auction result I can find so far (http://www.faketeams.com/2014/2/21/5432 ... t-analysis) has him as the eighth most expensive guy. Granted it's only been two years of improved power/average...

Tellya what ...just for shiggles ....take the names I posted and look at who Gomez is priced above (and I only put up offense ...no pitchers - so no Kershaw), look at who they priced him above, compare the two/three/how many and ask "Is he worth more than X guy"? I'd be curious.

[mjlewis]

I did not understand that sentence.

[da_big_kid_94]

I did not understand that sentence.

Fair enough.

I listed a dozen names not counting any Dodgers. One auction ranked him 8th most expensive and NESN ranked him 11th overall. Of the 12 I listed, just for laughs, in those two draft/auctions, who did Gomez go ahead of in those two lists?

[mjlewis]

I did not understand that sentence.

Fair enough.

I listed a dozen names not counting any Dodgers. One auction ranked him 8th most expensive and NESN ranked him 11th overall. Of the 12 I listed, just for laughs, in those two draft/auctions, who did Gomez go ahead of in those two lists?

oh, sure, that I can do.

In that one auction, the top prices were:

Goldschmidt $41
McCutchen $40
Kershaw $37
CarGo $36
Votto/Harper/Hanley $34
Wright/Freeman/Tulo/Gomez $32

Other players you listed: Braun $30, Puig $30 (the remaining Dodger), Desmond $28, Segura $27, Zimmerman $25, Posey $23, ARamirez $18

from the ADP table:

Goldschmidt #1
McCutchen #2
Kershaw #3
CarGo #4
Braun #5
Hanley #6
Harper #7
Tulo #8
Votto #9
Puig #10
Gomez #11

Other guys you listed:
Wright #12
Freeman #13
Segura #15
Desmond #20
Posey #22
Zimmerman #35
ARamirez #83

[da_big_kid_94]

Interesting ... much thanks for the info.

[mjlewis]

Another data point, from LABR NL:

CarGo $36
McCutchen/Kershaw $35
Braun/Goldschmidt $33
Harper/Votto/Gomez $32
Hanley $31
Pence $29 (this was by far the latest guy who went for this much, I think this was a case of a couple teams saving for the last good OF or something)
BHamilton/Tulo $28
Puig/Segura/Freeman/Strasburg/JFernandez/Bruce $27
Wright/Desmond/Stanton $26

then farther down:
Posey $22
ARamirez $18